WOOD Flash – Kazatomprom: 4Q24 results – well above the market’s estimates
Kazatomprom published its fourth quarter results yesterday (19 March), and they were well above the market’s estimates. The EBITDA was close to flat yoy, at KZT 491bn, but more than double the previous quarter. For the full year, the EBITDA reached KZT 1,069bn. a company record. Based on the results, we estimate a dividend per share of KZT 1,350 (USD 2.9), although a decision has yet to be published. Management is planning to tweak the formula used to calculate the dividends, which we do not expect to have a significant impact. Cost pressures continue to be visible, with unit cash costs up to USD 16.6/lb in 2024, from USD 13.3/lb in 2023. Part of this is due to taxes, the result of higher prices, as well as materials shortages. Management also issued its guidance for 2025E, with production growth of 6-14% and sales targets of 10-17%. The results reaffirm our view of Kazatomprom and we reiterate our BUY rating, with a price target (PT) of USD 61.6/GDR.
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