EME Equity Market – April 2024 Market performance – green across all geographies, with Turkey outperforming. The MSCI EM Europe Index was up 5.3% mom in EUR terms and 4.2% mom in USD in April; while the Turkish ISE30 saw the strongest performance, adding 11.6% mom; followed by the Hungarian BUX (+5.0% mom); the Czech PX (+2.8% mom); the Greek ASE (+1.8% mom), the Polish WIG20 (+1.2% mom) and the Romanian BET (+0.1% mom) (all in EUR terms).
A director at Lamda Development S.A. sold 5,000 shares at 7.061EUR and the significance rating of the trade was 53/100. Is that information sufficient for you to make an investment decision? This report gives details of those trades and adds context and analysis to them such that you can judge whether these trading decisions are ones worth following. Included in the report is a detailed share price chart which plots discretionary trades by all the company's directors over the last two years cl...
• LPP: the glass is half full (stays BUY) • Eurocash: 4Q23 beat on costs, profit warning for 1Q24E • 11 bit studios: 4Q23 adjusted EBITDA beats expectations on a solid top line • Polish banks: 2024 contributions to the BFG • MOL: oil production starts on a new platform at ACG field • Ford Otosan: completes the Eurobond book-building process • Kalekim: 2023 IAS 29 results - strong operating results • Lamda: 4Q23 results - a significant step-up in Ellinikon revenues, revaluation gain on existing m...
Lamda released its 4Q23 results yesterday morning (18 April), and management held a conference call to discuss the results yesterday afternoon. The results were dominated by a rapid increase in the revenues recognised for Ellinikon, driven by good sales results in the initial projects, and construction progress. The malls and marinas continued to perform strongly, in line with the trends of previous quarters, and above the expectations we outlined in our June 2023 initiation. This was partly off...
HEADLINES: • Lamda: 4Q23 results - significant step-up in Ellinikon revenues, revaluation gain on existing malls • Electrica: proposed changes to the regulatory framework • Bank Pekao: AGM chooses new Supervisory Board members, approves PLN 19.2 DPS • 11 bit studios: release date of INDIKA moved to 2 May • Nuclearelectrica: shareholders abstain from voting on the items from yesterday’s GMS • EMEA airlines: 1Q24 traffic - a good start to the year • Budimex: 1Q24E flat yoy - profitability improvem...
HEADLINES: • Cimsa: announces the completion of the 10.1% SBS shares transfer POSITIVE • InPost: PPF executes only part of the option, at this stage NEUTRAL • Inter Cars: 2024E revenue growth target at 13-15% yoy NEUTRAL • Inter Cars: November sales growth decelerated to a limited 10% yoy NEGATIVE • EME Macro/Strategy: macro all-in-one (4-10 December) • Hidroelectrica: signs agreement to acquire assets and personnel from manufacturer of hydro equipment NEUTRAL • WOOD's Winter Wonderland EME Con...
EME Equity Market – November 2023 Market performance – Greeks in the lead, in a month with only green across the region. The MSCI EM Europe Index added 5.6% mom in EUR terms and 8.7% mom in USD in November. The Greek ASE Index was the top performer in our region (+6.9% mom), followed by the Polish WIG20 (+5.5% mom) and the Hungarian BUX (+4.0% mom). The Czech PX Index saw the most muted performance, advancing 2.8% mom.
Lamda's 3Q23 results were – on the key recurring lines – in line with both our expectations and the trends visible in 1Q and 2Q23. The continued strong sales growth of the malls' tenants is encouraging, as is the good performance of the marinas. For the Ellinikon, the jury is out, and will remain so for some time, in our view. While the demand for the early-stage projects is very encouraging, we will also have visibility on the actual levels of the construction capex spent and, hence, on the mar...
HEADLINES: • PZU: posts solid 3Q23 results, raising hopes for a solid dividend pick-up next year NEUTRAL • Huuuge Games: adjusted EBITDA in line, reported line affected by USD 1.7m provision for litigation NEUTRAL • Lamda Development: 3Q23 - tenant sales (+23% yoy in 9M23) still at a very brisk pace NEUTRAL • Grupa Pracuj: 3Q23 results - adjusted EBITDA up 3% yoy, 5% above the market consensus NEUTRAL • Enea: 3Q23 results in line with preliminary figures • Tauron: 3Q23 results in line with prel...
EME Equity Market – September 2023 Market performance – positive developments in Romania and Turkey, declines everywhere else. The MSCI EM Europe Index lost 3.7% mom in EUR terms and 6.0% mom in USD in September. Romania took the spotlight, with the BET Index advancing 7.4% mom in EUR terms, followed by the Turkish ISE30 (+4.6% mom). The Polish WIG20 declined the most (-8.7% mom), followed by the Greek ASE, the Hungarian BUX and, finally, the Czech PX (-7.9%, -1.9% and -0.6% mom, respectively).
HEADLINES: • InPost: not there yet (stays BUY) • AROBS Transilvania Software: 2Q23 results • Lamda Development: 2Q23 - call takeaways (capex, cash inflows, malls IPO, margin of building by BIG) • Pepco Group: business model in question NEGATIVE • Aselsan: AESA radar ready to fly with Baykar drones POSITIVE • CD Projekt: Phantom Liberty down slightly in top-sellers list NEGATIVE • Short News (SNG)
HEADLINES: • Allegro: 2Q23 results above expectations; guidance for EBITDA acceleration in 3Q23E POSITIVE • Lamda Development: 1H23 - existing malls NOI ahead of our estimates, NAV stable at EUR 7.8/share POSITIVE • Czech Republic macro: CNB preparing for the first rate cut • PGE: 2Q23 earnings call takeaways • Pepco Group: another profit warning and management reshuffle NEGATIVE • DIGI Communications: in talks with Macquarie and Abrdn to sell stake in its Spanish fibre network NEUTRAL • OMV P...
EME Equity Market – August 2023 Market performance – Turkey the top performer in August, once again. The MSCI EM Europe Index lost 0.7% mom in EUR terms and 2.2% mom in USD in August. Turkey, yet again, outperformed its peers, with the ISE30 gaining 9.4% mom in EUR terms. The Hungarian BUX index saw a solid performance in August, adding 6.1% mom in EUR terms, while the Romanian BET had a lacklustre month, barely making any gains (0.1% mom in EUR terms). Elsewhere, the index performances were neg...
HEADLINES: • Isbank: 2Q23 highlights - subsidiary profits boom • Coca-Cola Icecek: 2Q23 - better than expected results POSITIVE • Brisa: 2Q23 EBITDA margin up to 22%, volumes fall 8% yoy on exports • Romania macro: NBR holds the policy rate unchanged • Lamda Development: rundown of key value drivers (highlights from the CMD) POSITIVE • Asseco Poland: 2Q23 preliminary net profit reaches PLN 120m, 3% above the consensus POSITIVE • CEZ: State reportedly seeking to acquire gas network operators N...
During its 2023 Investor Day, Lamda’s management presented its vision for The Ellinikon project and its detailed key strategic targets up to 2026E, along with some broader guidance up to 2037E. Based on our reconciliation, Lamda expects the NAV to reach EUR 2.4bn by 2026E, up from EUR 1.4bn as of the end of 2022. Market conditions permitting, Lamda plans to separate and IPO the Malls Co by the end of 2024E (looking to raise c.EUR 150m of new capital, to be used for deleveraging and development c...
EME Equity Market – July 2023 Market performance – gains keep on rolling in all geographies, with special mention of Turkey’s stellar performance. The MSCI EM Europe Index gained 8.6% mom in EUR terms and 9.5% mom in USD in July. Turkey clearly outperformed its peers, gaining 18.6% mom in EUR terms. Most other geographies performed more or less at similar levels, with the Polish WIG20 in the upper part of the range, advancing 7.3% mom in EUR terms, followed by the Romanian BET and Czech PX indic...
HEADLINES: • EME Macro/Strategy: macro all-in-one (3-9 July) • Lamda Development: highlights from the investor day • OMV: 2Q23 trading results • OMV Petrom: 2Q23 trading results • Jeronimo Martins: 2Q23E results preview - 16% yoy EBITDA growth expected (due on 26 July) NEUTRAL
EME Equity Market – June 2023 Market performance – in the mostly green month of June, Czech Index’s red performance stands out; Turkish gains eclipsed by TRY devaluation. The MSCI EM Europe Index gained 3.3% mom in EUR terms and 6.0% mom in USD in June. The Polish WIG20 advanced the most (+11.1% mom in EUR terms), followed by the Hungarian BUX Index (+6.2% mom in EUR terms), the Greek ASE Index (+4.9% mom in EUR terms) and the Romanian BET Index (with a more modest, but positive performance: +2....
HEADLINES: • mBank: to book PLN 1,512.9m of FX mortgage saga costs in 2Q23E • Poland macro: latest opinion poll shows PiS and KO neck-and-neck • Greek macro: PM Mitsotakis secures an outright majority in the general election second round • Lamda: payment of second instalment for Ellinikon, reduced bank funding needs POSITIVE • Czech banks: may benefit from updated retail mortgage law • Coca-Cola Icecek: potential acquisition of Coca-Cola Bangladesh Beverages POSITIVE • EME Macro/Strategy: ma...
HEADLINES: • Lamda Development: a bet on the transformation of Athens (BUY - initiation of coverage) • PCF Group: non-binding term sheet regarding new VR game for USD 16-24m POSITIVE • Bank Millennium: to spend PLN 680m on FX mortgage saga in 2Q23E NEUTRAL • Transgaz: signs order to begin construction of pipeline linking Black Sea to BRUA NEUTRAL • Solutions by STC: announces signing of a binding offer to acquire 40% of Devoteam Middle East POSITIVE • GTC: considering entry into European luxur...
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