Bram Buring, CFA ...
  • Jonathan Lamb

MOL: end of the age of crazy (stays BUY)

We maintain our BUY rating on MOL with an updated 12M price target (PT) of HUF 3,810 (from HUF 3,500 previously), offering 37.3% upside. Both oil and gas prices have normalised: oil from the recent lows and gas from the record highs. Refining margins are enjoying another extraordinary period, while petrochemicals are in the doldrums. On aggregate, we see the environment as benign, boosting earnings. Perhaps more importantly, the regulatory and tax burdens are simplifying and normalising. In 2024E, only revenue taxes will remain, and at a much lower rate, while windfall taxes and extra royalties should just be an unpleasant memory. In 2024E, production in Azerbaijan should increase, while the Iraqi pipeline concerns may come to a conclusion. Polyol is coming onstream slowly, while the Rijeka upgrade should contribute in 2025E. The entrance into Poland and expansion in Slovenia is making the consumer business more significant. We expect dividend yields of >10 over the next three years. MOL trades at P/Es of 3.8x for 2023E and 4.2x for 2025E, on our estimates, compared to the medians of 4.0x and 6.2x for its peers.
MOL Nyrt

Wood and Company
Wood and Company

WOOD & Company is the leading investment bank in Emerging Europe. Founded in 1991 and head-quartered in Prague, our footprint spans the region and touches investors around the globe.

A pioneer in Emerging Europe, WOOD executed many of the first CEE equity trades and landmark investment banking transactions. Our electronic trading platform was the first in the region, and remains the best. We are continually expanding our relevance and reach in these ever-evolving markets.

Our equity market share reflects our stature: 7% in Warsaw, 20% in Bucharest, 16% in Hungary, 40% in Prague and 5% in Vienna. Our distribution is unparalleled, with the largest salesforce in the region, servicing a uniquely diverse investor base.

We couple local expertise with a truly international perspective. With offices on the ground in the region, and in key financial hubs such as London and Milano, we are never far from our clients and we remain at the forefront of what’s afoot in the CEE emerging and frontier landscape.

Bram Buring, CFA

Jonathan Lamb

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