EME Equity Market – April 2024 Market performance – green across all geographies, with Turkey outperforming. The MSCI EM Europe Index was up 5.3% mom in EUR terms and 4.2% mom in USD in April; while the Turkish ISE30 saw the strongest performance, adding 11.6% mom; followed by the Hungarian BUX (+5.0% mom); the Czech PX (+2.8% mom); the Greek ASE (+1.8% mom), the Polish WIG20 (+1.2% mom) and the Romanian BET (+0.1% mom) (all in EUR terms).
• LPP: the glass is half full (stays BUY) • Eurocash: 4Q23 beat on costs, profit warning for 1Q24E • 11 bit studios: 4Q23 adjusted EBITDA beats expectations on a solid top line • Polish banks: 2024 contributions to the BFG • MOL: oil production starts on a new platform at ACG field • Ford Otosan: completes the Eurobond book-building process • Kalekim: 2023 IAS 29 results - strong operating results • Lamda: 4Q23 results - a significant step-up in Ellinikon revenues, revaluation gain on existing m...
EME Equity Market – March 2024 Market performance – mixed performances in March, with the Romanian BET outperforming. The MSCI EM Europe Index declined by 0.3% mom in EUR terms and 0.4% mom in USD in March. The Romanian BET reported the strongest performance, adding 7.1% mom in EUR terms, followed by the Czech PX and the Polish WIG20 (+4.1% and 1.0% mom, in EUR terms, respectively). Greece saw a relatively muted performance (-0.2% mom in EUR terms), while Hungary (-1.1% mom in EUR terms) and Tür...
HEADLINES: • Türkiye macro: MPC surprises with a 500bp hike • Hungary macro: Hungary ends the cap on bank deposits • Aselsan: new USD 0.6bn contract • Dino: 8-10% EBITDA miss in 4Q23 - qoq sales erosion • Benefit Systems: conference call takeaways - solid 2024E outlook, Türkiye promising, churn-related risks from the Czech Republic should not materialise in Poland • 11 bit studios: Indika release date set for 8 May • CEZ: takeaways from the 4Q23 earnings call • Jahez: conference call takeaways •...
HEADLINES: • Huuuge Games: 4Q23 slightly above the consensus; up to USD 70m buyback announced (14% yield) POSITIVE • KazMunayGas: 4Q23 results – weaker than expected NEGATIVE • Enea: announces significant impairment charges (PLN 2.9bn) affecting the FY23 figures NEGATIVE • MONETA Money Bank/Komercni Banka: negative impact from the drop in mortgage rates NEGATIVE • MOL: updated strategy for 2030E – conference call takeaways NEUTRAL • Sarantis: key takeaways from the Investor Day • Allegro: key ta...
MOL has updated its strategy for 2025-30E, with a strong focus on reducing its carbon footprint and continuing the shift to more sustainable businesses. Over the period, MOL expects to invest USD 11.6bn, of which USD 6.5bn for business continuity (sustain) investments and USD 5.1bn for strategic (growth) investments. Downstream continues to be the largest area of investment, with upstream and consumer services in second and third place, respectively. Even at very conservative estimates for the m...
HEADLINES: • Aselsan: quo vadis? New contracts, new products and upcoming transition to inflation accounting POSITIVE • Georgia macro: NBG cuts policy rate by 75bps • CEZ: press reports CEZ has won tender for 55% of GasNet, could weigh on the 2023 dividend payout NEGATIVE • Allegro: 4Q23 results above expectations; guidance for a strong 1Q24E POSITIVE • Verbund: 4Q23 results in line with guidance NEUTRAL • Coca-Cola Icecek: 4Q23 results – in line operationally NEUTRAL • OPAP: 4Q23 results and FY...
EME Equity Market – February 2024 Market performance – a positive February, with the Polish WIG20 outperforming. The MSCI EM Europe Index added 4.2% mom in EUR terms and 3.7% mom in USD in February. The Polish WIG20 saw the strongest performance, adding 6.4% mom in EUR terms, followed by the Greek ASE (+4.2% mom), the Turkish ISE30 (+4.0% mom) and the Romanian BET (+2.6% mom) (all in EUR terms). There was a relatively muted performance in Hungary (+0.6% mom in EUR terms) and a decline in the Cze...
HEADLINES: • KazMunayGas: energy without the obstructions (BUY - transfer of coverage) • MOL: 4Q23 results – net income well above expectations POSITIVE • Solutions by STC: 4Q23 financial results review – miss on profitability estimates, but in line with 2023 guidance NEUTRAL • Orange Polska: key takeaways from the 4Q23 earnings call NEUTRAL • Hidroelectrica: price caps to remain in place until 31 March 2025 NEUTRAL • Jeronimo Martins: another step from Biedronka on the way to ecommerce • El...
HEADLINES: • Orange Polska: 4Q23 results – EBITDAaL up 2% yoy, in line with the consensus NEGATIVE • Piraeus Bank: 4Q23 highlights and 2024-26E guidance • Poland macro: 2023 ends with near stagnant growth • Hungary macro: underwhelming 2023, but constructive signs for the new year • Romania macro: GDP to accelerate further, after a good 2023 • Czech Republic macro: GDP ends 2023 on a soft note • CEZ: committee recommends dropping Lex CEZ 2.0 NEUTRAL • Electrica: 4Q23 operational review shows s...
EME Equity Market – January 2024 Market performance – Turkey off to the races in January. The MSCI EM Europe Index added 4.2% mom in EUR terms and 2.2% mom in USD in the first month of the year. There was a V-shape recovery in the Turkish ISE30, with the index adding 12.6% mom in EUR terms. The Greek ASE and Hungarian BUX indices also reported strong performances, adding 5.7% and 5.3% mom, respectively, in EUR terms. The Czech PX Index advanced by 2.2% mom, while the Romanian BET 0.9% mom in EUR...
HEADLINES: • European oil & gas: parting from the Red Sea • EME Macro/Strategy: macro all-in-one (8-14 January) • Kazatomprom: expects 2024E production to miss guidance targets NEUTRAL • Fondul Proprietatea: end-December 2023 NAV per share up 4% mom NEUTRAL • Grupa Pracuj: new job ads on Pracuj.pl reach 390,000 in 2H23, down 14% vs. 1H23 NEGATIVE • Bank Millennium: 4Q23E preview (due on 30 January) • Santander Bank Polska: 4Q23E preview (due on 31 January) • ING BSK: 4Q23E preview (due on 1 ...
Attacks on shipping in the Red Sea and the Gulf of Aden, by the Houthis from Yemen, have complicated the supply chains for Europe, and none more so than the supply of crude oil and oil products. The expropriation of a cargo belonging to Tupras on 11 January was a timely reminder of the risks. The shortage of heavy crude oils could get marginally worse, as cargos need to be rerouted around the long way. The lack of crude oil from Northern Iraq via the Kirkuk pipeline is exacerbating the problem c...
• Mo-BRUK: PLN 19m claim against MBR related to Wałbrzych dumping site (2017 case) remains in force • Fondul Proprietatea: calls EGMS to approve new buyback programme, Engie sale NEUTRAL • OMV Petrom: acquires 50% of the largest wind power portfolio of projects in Romania POSITIVE • Tauron: agrees to sell Tameh Holding for PLN 598m NEUTRAL • MOL: produces first gas from the Rozhkovskoye field in Kazakhstan POSITIVE • Kazatomprom: fuel assembly manufacturing facility certified for new product NE...
Try as it might, OPEC cannot stop the gradual decline in oil prices, even with further cuts. Despite this demand red flag, refining margins remain at close to average levels, with diesel still very strong. In fact, were it not for heavy crudes being sold at a premium to Brent, our benchmark would be much higher. Therefore, we expect refiners to outperform the benchmark by optimising crude oil supplies.
EME Equity Market – November 2023 Market performance – Greeks in the lead, in a month with only green across the region. The MSCI EM Europe Index added 5.6% mom in EUR terms and 8.7% mom in USD in November. The Greek ASE Index was the top performer in our region (+6.9% mom), followed by the Polish WIG20 (+5.5% mom) and the Hungarian BUX (+4.0% mom). The Czech PX Index saw the most muted performance, advancing 2.8% mom.
HEADLINES: • Teknosa: good things come in small packages (BUY - initiation of coverage) • OTP Bank: beats expectations with 3Q23 delivery • Bank Handlowy: solid 3Q23, DPS feasible and attractive, still a reason to own the stock NEUTRAL • Eurocash: 3Q23 beat on costs POSITIVE • Dogus Otomotiv: strong bottom-line beat in 3Q23 POSITIVE • Ulker: 3Q23 results - strong beat POSITIVE • Sok Marketler Ticaret: 3Q23 in line operationally, strong bottom-line beat on deferred tax income NEUTRAL • Public P...
HEADLINES: • Bank Pekao: 3Q23 results solid as a rock, 25%+ ROE remains, high dividend yield possible POSITIVE • BIM: strong set of results in 3Q23 financials, beating expectations POSITIVE • Richter: 3Q23 EBITDA in line; guidance raised on strong Vraylar POSITIVE • Petkim: 3Q23 results • Eurobank: 3Q23 results • National Bank: 3Q23 results • Addiko Bank: 3Q23 results - bottom-line beat POSITIVE • Transgaz: no approval from EC for EUR 500m grants for non-priority projects NEUTRAL • Auto Par...
EME Equity Market – October 2023 Market performance – election results prompt stellar market reaction in Poland; sell-off in Turkey. The MSCI EM Europe Index added 1.7% mom in EUR terms and 2.0% mom in USD in October. Poland staged a massive rebound, post the elections, with the WIG20 advancing 16.4% mom in EUR terms. Apart from Turkey, where October was a sell-off, with the ISE30 declining 13.7% mom in EUR terms, there were relatively muted performances everywhere else (BUX +2.1% / PX +0.4% / B...
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