MOL: much to admire, despite the fire (stays BUY)
We maintain our BUY rating on MOL with an updated 12M price target (PT) of HUF 3,730 (from HUF 3,600), offering 21.4% upside. Oil and gas prices have been a headwind in 2025 ytd, but we believe that MOL is less sensitive to this than may be fully recognised. The company is also investing at a slower rate than planned previously, boosting free cash flow. The fire at the Danube refinery in Hungary will reduce production there for a few months, in our view, but margins are strengthening and should help to compensate. Further sanctions on Russia may boost margins further, and offer MOL acquisition opportunities, but waivers also mean that Russian crude oil is still on the menu. Discoveries in Hungary and projects in Azerbaijan should keep the upstream volumes up in the medium term, while the reopening of the Kirkuk pipeline should boost the Iraqi business. We expect dividend yields of 9-11% in the next three years. MOL is trading at P/Es of 6.2x for 2025E and 5.4x for 2027E, on our estimates, compared to the medians of 9.3x and 7.2x for its peers, on our figures.
WOOD & Company is the leading investment bank in Emerging Europe. Founded in 1991 and head-quartered in Prague, our footprint spans the region and touches investors around the globe.
A pioneer in Emerging Europe, WOOD executed many of the first CEE equity trades and landmark investment banking transactions. Our electronic trading platform was the first in the region, and remains the best. We are continually expanding our relevance and reach in these ever-evolving markets.
Our equity market share reflects our stature: 7% in Warsaw, 20% in Bucharest, 16% in Hungary, 40% in Prague and 5% in Vienna. Our distribution is unparalleled, with the largest salesforce in the region, servicing a uniquely diverse investor base.
We couple local expertise with a truly international perspective. With offices on the ground in the region, and in key financial hubs such as London and Milano, we are never far from our clients and we remain at the forefront of what’s afoot in the CEE emerging and frontier landscape.
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