WOOD Flash – MOL: 4Q results and 2025E guidance
MOL reported its fourth quarter results this morning (21 February), which were below expectations, and announced its guidance for 2025E. The EBITDA was 24% lower than the previous quarter, at HUF 226bn, and 16% and 18% below our and the consensus expectations, respectively. The EBITDA was affected negatively by a large CCS effect of HUF 35.5bn, related mostly to carbon emissions permit costs. This accounted for almost all of the underperformance in downstream. The circular economy segment was hit by major one-off costs, due to the ramping up of the Deposit Return System. Upstream performed in line with expectations, and consumer services produced strong results, based on improving non-fuel, throughputs and cost optimisation. The effective tax rate was above 100%, taking the net income negative. This was due to increased deferred taxes of HUF 12bn and windfall (solidarity) taxes of HUF 6bn, which will not be repeated next quarter, in our view. Management is guiding for a minimum of USD 3.0bn in EBITDA for 2025E, similar to 2024 (we forecast 2025E EBITDA of USD 3.3bn and pre-tax earnings of 1.8bn, vs. the USD 1.6bn guided). We regard the negative news in the quarter as temporary, and we reiterate our BUY rating on MOL, with a PT of HUF 3,600/share.
WOOD & Company is the leading investment bank in Emerging Europe. Founded in 1991 and head-quartered in Prague, our footprint spans the region and touches investors around the globe.
A pioneer in Emerging Europe, WOOD executed many of the first CEE equity trades and landmark investment banking transactions. Our electronic trading platform was the first in the region, and remains the best. We are continually expanding our relevance and reach in these ever-evolving markets.
Our equity market share reflects our stature: 7% in Warsaw, 20% in Bucharest, 16% in Hungary, 40% in Prague and 5% in Vienna. Our distribution is unparalleled, with the largest salesforce in the region, servicing a uniquely diverse investor base.
We couple local expertise with a truly international perspective. With offices on the ground in the region, and in key financial hubs such as London and Milano, we are never far from our clients and we remain at the forefront of what’s afoot in the CEE emerging and frontier landscape.
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