Magyar Telekom: another record strong year ahead (stays BUY)
We reiterate our BUY on Magyar Telekom (MTELEKOM) and raise our price target (PT) to HUF 1,432/share (from HUF 969), 25% upside potential. Despite the share price rally (up 105% in the LTM), we still see MTELEKOM as an outstanding growth story in the TMT space, with an expected 2023-26E EBITDA CAGR of 15%. In our view, the growth it generates should be driven by CPI-linked price hikes and the abolition of the supplementary telco tax in 2025E, which should, on our estimates, add 11ppts to the 2025E EBITDA growth rate. Considering the strong FCF outlook, we expect MTELEKOM to stick to its current dividend policy, with dividend yields of c.12% in 2025-26E. On our forecasts, MTELEKOM is trading at 2025-26E EV/EBITDAs of 3.3-3.0x, at 33-37% discounts vs. its peers. We believe MTELEKOM’s multiples deserve to converge towards its peers’ medians, considering its superior growth outlook, with an EBITDA 2023-26E CAGR of 15%, on our estimates, vs. the 4% peers’ median.Magyar Telekom is engaged in the providing fixed line and mobile telecommunication services for public and business customers. Co. provides voice and non-voice (SMS, MMS, internet, data and content provision) within mobile services; voice, data, internet and TV services within fixed line services. In addition, Co. sells equipment needed for using fixed line and mobile services (telephones, tablets, notebooks, TV sets etc.).
WOOD & Company is the leading investment bank in Emerging Europe. Founded in 1991 and head-quartered in Prague, our footprint spans the region and touches investors around the globe.
A pioneer in Emerging Europe, WOOD executed many of the first CEE equity trades and landmark investment banking transactions. Our electronic trading platform was the first in the region, and remains the best. We are continually expanding our relevance and reach in these ever-evolving markets.
Our equity market share reflects our stature: 7% in Warsaw, 20% in Bucharest, 16% in Hungary, 40% in Prague and 5% in Vienna. Our distribution is unparalleled, with the largest salesforce in the region, servicing a uniquely diverse investor base.
We couple local expertise with a truly international perspective. With offices on the ground in the region, and in key financial hubs such as London and Milano, we are never far from our clients and we remain at the forefront of what’s afoot in the CEE emerging and frontier landscape.
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