OMV: Chemical Brothers (stays BUY)
We maintain our BUY rating on OMV, with an updated price target (PT) of EUR 56.4 (from EUR 53.9), offering upside of 37.3%. While we await the final announcement on the Borealis/Borouge merger, OMV’s petrochemicals business continues to grow in both Europe and UAE, in the teeth of poor margins. The gas business is now less profitable, but energy expenses have plunged as well, as gas prices in Europe normalise. We expect 2024E to deliver better refining margins, before normalising in 2025E. The disposal of the Malaysian upstream business should be followed by New Zealand, and we expect 307 kboe/day in 2025E, down from nearly 500kboe/day three years ago. We now expect EBITDA of EUR 7.9bn in 2024E, below our previous EUR 8.1bn, but a better EBITDA in 2025E, on stronger refining margins, higher oil prices, and a partial recovery in petrochemicals. The dividends for 2023 will match those of 2022, at EUR 5.05/share, and we expect the yields to be at 7%, at least. OMV is trading at a P/E of 5.8x in 2024E, on our estimates, versus its peers at 4.5x, on our estimates.OMV is an international energy company with activities in Exploration and Production (E&P), Refining and Marketing including petrochemicals (R&M), and Gas and Power (G&P). Co. explores and develops oil and gas resources and supply energy to over 100 million people. OMV has three operating segments: Exploration and Production (E&P), Refining and Marketing, including petrochemicals (R&M), and Gas and Power (G&P), as well as the segment Corporate and Other (Co&O).
WOOD & Company is the leading investment bank in Emerging Europe. Founded in 1991 and head-quartered in Prague, our footprint spans the region and touches investors around the globe.
A pioneer in Emerging Europe, WOOD executed many of the first CEE equity trades and landmark investment banking transactions. Our electronic trading platform was the first in the region, and remains the best. We are continually expanding our relevance and reach in these ever-evolving markets.
Our equity market share reflects our stature: 7% in Warsaw, 20% in Bucharest, 16% in Hungary, 40% in Prague and 5% in Vienna. Our distribution is unparalleled, with the largest salesforce in the region, servicing a uniquely diverse investor base.
We couple local expertise with a truly international perspective. With offices on the ground in the region, and in key financial hubs such as London and Milano, we are never far from our clients and we remain at the forefront of what’s afoot in the CEE emerging and frontier landscape.
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