EME Equity Market – March 2025 Türkiye hammered, once again. The MSCI EM Europe Index advanced 0.5% in EUR terms and 4.5% mom in USD terms in March. The Czech PX Index was the best performer (+7.0% mom in EUR terms), followed by the Greek ASE (+4.8% mom), Polish WIG (+3.7% mom) and Hungarian BUX(+1.3% mom) indices (all in EUR terms). There was a muted performance from the Romanian BET Index (-0.1% mom in EUR terms). The Turkish ISE30 finished in the red again, declining 9.5% mom in EUR terms.
We have revised our target price for OMV, after the successful merger with ADNOC regarding the combination of Borealis and Borouge. The agreed terms are highly favourable for OMV. Accordingly, we raise our 2025 year-end ex-dividend target price from EUR 42.6 to EUR 50.0, implying an upside potential of 25.0%. The merger will result in the deconsolidation of Borealis from OMV's financial statements, with its stake in the newly formed entity will be reported as an equity-accounted investment. At ...
HEADLINES: • GEK Terna: it’s a new dawn, it’s a new day, it’s a new GEK (BUY – transfer of coverage) • Alior Bank: solid 4Q24; dividend guidance implies 10% yield; market awaiting strategic update, due on 25 March POSITIVE • Coca-Cola Icecek: significant miss in the 4Q24 results NEGATIVE • Pegasus Airlines: 4Q24 – better RASK, higher CASKX, decent guidance • OMV: agrees on Borealis, Borouge and Nova Chemicals deal with ADNOC POSITIVE • Alpha Services and Holdings: Paulson entity offers 57m share...
OMV and ADNOC have reached an agreement on the terms of the Borealis / Borouge merger, and plan to acquire Nova Chemicals at the same time. The resulting entity will be called Borouge Group International (BGI). OMV will inject USD 1.6bn into BGI in order to maintain an equal shareholding of 46.94% with that of ADNOC. Following completion, management plans a secondary offering of Borouge to increase the free float, maintain its credit rating, and ensure inclusion in the MSCI indices. BGI will be ...
HEADLINES: • MedLife: and let the operational gearing begin (upgraded to BUY) • Enea: preliminary 4Q24 results broadly in line with expectations NEUTRAL • Elm: 4Q24 conference call takeaways • 4iG: 4Q24 earnings call takeaways NEUTRAL • Türkiye macro: February inflation performs better than the CBT’s projections • OMV: agrees on Borealis, Borouge and Nova chemicals deal with ADNOC POSITIVE • InPost: extension of available financing to PLN 4.2bn, from PLN 2.8bn POSITIVE • Wizz Air: February capac...
EME Equity Market – February 2025 Poland outperforms, again; Türkiye declines. The MSCI EM Europe Index advanced by 3.1% in EUR terms and 2.9% mom in USD terms in February. The Polish WIG20 was, once again, the best performer, adding 7.3% mom in February; followed by the Czech PX Index (+6.1% mom); while Greece (+3.8% mom), Hungary (+3.5% mom) and Romania (+3.0% mom) all reported rather similar performances. The Turkish ISE30 was the worst performer, declining 4.5% mom.
AUCTUS PUBLICATIONS ________________________________________ Arrow Exploration (AXL LN/CN)C; Target price of £0.80 per share: Appraisal drilling results at Alberta Llanos unlock full field development with horizontal wells - Following the discovery well, Arrow has drilled two new vertical wells at Alberta Llanos, effectively delineating the field. The AB-2 well at the far northern limit of the field encountered multiple hydrocarbon-bearing intervals with good reservoir characteristics but came i...
HEADLINES: • Raiffeisen Bank International: 2024 results; 2025E ROE (excluding Russia) guidance of c.10%; equity story still hostage to Russian exposure • OMV: 4Q24 results – CCS EBITDA beats expectations, dividend proposal of EUR 4.75/share POSITIVE • OMV Petrom: 4Q24 results; dividend proposal of RON 0.0444/share NEUTRAL • Borouge: 4Q24 results NEUTRAL • Asseco Poland: considering selling its treasury shares to strategic investor; part of the proceeds to be distributed as dividends POSITIVE • ...
EME Equity Market – January 2025 The markets entered 2025 on the right foot. The MSCI EM Europe Index advanced by 7.7% in EUR terms and 8.4% in USD terms in January. The Polish WIG20 was the best performer (+12.7% mom), followed by the Hungarian BUX and Czech PX indices (+8.9% mom and +6.2% mom, in EUR terms, respectively). There was also a very solid performance from the Greek ASE Index (+5.4% mom in EUR terms), but more muted performances from the Romanian BET and Turkish ISE 30 indices (+1.6%...
HEADLINES: • Arcelik: 4Q24 results – a mixed bag NEUTRAL • EME Macro/Strategy: macro all-in-one (27 January-2 February) • Yapi Kredi: 4Q24 results and 2025E guidance highlights NEUTRAL • Polish TMT: Cyfrowy Polsat sells 10% stake in Asseco Poland for PLN 85/share POSITIVE • PZU: acting CEO Klesyk holds first capital markets conference • Richter: AbbVie’s 2025 Vraylar guidance USD 3.5bn, 8% below the consensus NEGATIVE • OMV: may acquire Nova Chemicals, with ADNOC (Borouge) POSITIVE • Piraeus Fin...
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