Romgaz: keeper for the longer term (stays BUY)
After the peak seen in summer 2022, driven by the gas price rally, the Romgaz share price has been dragged down by news of the solidarity tax, and the accelerated decline in European gas prices. We see Neptun Deep as a game changer for the company, with the FCF yield during the plateau years at close to 30%, which could push the dividend yield towards 20% by 2028E. Until first gas from Neptun, which is expected in 2027E, investors should get a minimum 50% payout from the net result, with an average yield over 2023-27E of 8%. We keep our BUY rating on the stock and continue to use a dividend discount model (DDM) to set our target price. We have reduced our European gas price estimates and accounted for the solidarity tax, which has lowered our figures considerably vs. our previous update. This has led us to cut our 12M price target (PT) to RON 47.6 (from RON 65.6).
WOOD & Company is the leading investment bank in Emerging Europe. Founded in 1991 and head-quartered in Prague, our footprint spans the region and touches investors around the globe.
A pioneer in Emerging Europe, WOOD executed many of the first CEE equity trades and landmark investment banking transactions. Our electronic trading platform was the first in the region, and remains the best. We are continually expanding our relevance and reach in these ever-evolving markets.
Our equity market share reflects our stature: 7% in Warsaw, 20% in Bucharest, 16% in Hungary, 40% in Prague and 5% in Vienna. Our distribution is unparalleled, with the largest salesforce in the region, servicing a uniquely diverse investor base.
We couple local expertise with a truly international perspective. With offices on the ground in the region, and in key financial hubs such as London and Milano, we are never far from our clients and we remain at the forefront of what’s afoot in the CEE emerging and frontier landscape.
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