Ten Square Games: improved short-term outlook, but long-term challenges (stays HOLD)
We maintain our HOLD rating on Ten Square Games (TEN). Our new 12M price target (PT) of PLN 100 offers limited 11% potential upside. We have cut our 2023-25E revenue forecasts by 21-31%, but our EBITDA changes are more limited, at 8-15%, to reflect the substantial cost optimisation undertaken this year, and TEN’s focus on its core titles. We assume the scaling up of Wings of Heroes only in 2025E (5% of our bookings forecast). While 3Q23 proved solid, we believe the increased volatility remains, as indicated by the October data. TEN’s long-term revenue growth potential remains the major concern for us, given the maturing of the core titles. While the 2024E outlook appears solid, with a potential attractive buyback ahead, the 2025E multiples are broadly in line with its peers, which makes us merely neutral on the stock.Ten Square Games SA is a Poland-based mobile games development company. The Company is focused on 3D simulation hobby games for people who seek outdoor experiences on their mobile devices, like fishing or hunting games. Its games are available on social platforms, a network of partner sites, as well as on Google Play, App Store and Microsoft Store.
WOOD & Company is the leading investment bank in Emerging Europe. Founded in 1991 and head-quartered in Prague, our footprint spans the region and touches investors around the globe.
A pioneer in Emerging Europe, WOOD executed many of the first CEE equity trades and landmark investment banking transactions. Our electronic trading platform was the first in the region, and remains the best. We are continually expanding our relevance and reach in these ever-evolving markets.
Our equity market share reflects our stature: 7% in Warsaw, 20% in Bucharest, 16% in Hungary, 40% in Prague and 5% in Vienna. Our distribution is unparalleled, with the largest salesforce in the region, servicing a uniquely diverse investor base.
We couple local expertise with a truly international perspective. With offices on the ground in the region, and in key financial hubs such as London and Milano, we are never far from our clients and we remain at the forefront of what’s afoot in the CEE emerging and frontier landscape.
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