Ten Square Games: You never know what you might catch (stays BUY)
We maintain our BUY recommendation on Ten Square Games, with a new price target (PT) of PLN 310/share (from PLN 222/share). The only thing that has changed since our last report a few months ago is the better monthly sales data generated by its flagship title, Fishing Clash. We believe that this means we are not at the peak of the game’s lifecycle yet; thus, we have updated our FY numbers for Fishing Clash bookings (up 29% in FY20E vs. earlier). This major change has affected our PT by c.18% (to c.PLN 261/share) but, due to the approaching soft launch of its redesigned golf game, we have also priced in some success from this title (at c.9-30% of Fishing Clash); as a consequence, our new PT is at PLN 310/share. Other than this, we do not assume any significant revenue from other titles released in 4Q19 (SoliTales, Flip This House and Hunting Clash) and we add c.PLN 5m annually from China (assuming similar popularity for Fishing Clash in China vs. the US market). We believe that gaming, and especially mobile gaming, is likely to be a short-term beneficiary of the COVID-19 epidemic; while, at the same time, in the long term, we do not see any major threats for gaming businesses.Ten Square Games SA is a Poland-based mobile games development company. The Company is focused on 3D simulation hobby games for people who seek outdoor experiences on their mobile devices, like fishing or hunting games. Its games are available on social platforms, a network of partner sites, as well as on Google Play, App Store and Microsoft Store.
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