WOOD Flash – Georgia macro: early takes following the parliamentary election

Following the 26 October elections in Georgia, yesterday (27 October), the Central Election Commission (CEC) published the official results, which put Georgian Dream (GD) at 53.9%, securing 89 seats – a majority, but short of the 113 seats needed for constitutional changes, which was a key risk factor, in our view. While GD's win aligns with our expectations, the opposition’s performance was weaker than we had anticipated, and GD gained about 200k votes from the previous elections, also above what we expected. The opposition parties and President Zourabichvili have rejected the election's legitimacy, calling for mass protests, and plan to forfeit their parliamentary seats. At the time of writing, the EU and the US have not issued final positions on the Georgian elections, although the OSCE/ODIHR refrained from labelling them outright as illegitimate. While protests will attract media attention, the key factor to monitor is the EU’s response and GD’s actions to potentially restore relations. Accession discussions are currently stalled, but GD, with Ivanishvili hinting at a willingness to engage with the US envoy, has incentives to avoid further negative impacts, such as reduced FDI, diminished Western financial support, sanctions, and a potential loss of Schengen visa-free travel for Georgian citizens. In this flash note, we want to add some initial context and data for the election.