reports
- Sandy Eskaros
Egypt inflation: Price hikes in April as Ramadan’s inflationary pressu...
INFLATION JUMPS ON LAGGED RAMADAN FOOD PRICE HIKES Inflation for total Egypt saw a jump in April to 1.2% MoM and 4.4% YoY, compared to March’s slight pickup of 0.6% MoM and 4.8% YoY. Urban inflation saw a similar surge in prices to 0.9% MoM and 4.1% YoY. The price hikes reflect a lagged effect of Ramadan on inflation, as suppliers usually expect a rise in domestic demand and raise prices to benefit accordingly. Although this usually happens in the month preceding Ramadan, this year it was dur...
- Sandy Eskaros
Egypt BoP Monitor 2Q20/21: Strong recovery from the pandemic; sturdy s...
The overall Balance of Payments recorded a surplus of USD 1.5bn in 2Q20-21 which is positive as it comes following 3 consecutive quarters of BoP deficits which themselves were following a couple of barely breakeven quarters. The improvement in Egypt’s foreign currency position reflects its resilience towards uncertainties and ability to overcome the covid-19 shock. The growth from a deficit of USD 1.0 mn in 1Q20-21 and a surplus of USD 0.2 bn in 2Q19-20 was made possible through a stronger Ca...
- Sandy Eskaros
March surprises with inflation below expectations; rate cut on 29 Apri...
KEY MESSAGES: INFLATION UPTICK TRIGGERED BY FOOD ITEMS March’s inflation for total Egypt declined to 4.8% from 4.9% annually in February and inflation for urban Egypt stabilized for the second month at 4.5% annually. The surge comes as Food & Beverages see their prices increase by 1.9% YoY, offsetting the 0.8% price decline in Clothing & Footwear. FOOD ACCOUNTS FOR ALMOST ALL OF MARCH’S MONTHLY INFLATION CONTRIBUTION, BUT NOT ON ANNUAL FIGURES Fruits & Vegetables’ contribution to total annual...
- Sandy Eskaros
Egypt inflation monitor: Muted price movement, rate cut unlikely on 18...
KEY MESSAGES: * Overview: Inflation in February shows stable price levelsas total Egypt’s inflation hit 0.1% monthly and 4.9% annually, compared to a monthly decline of 0.4% in January and an annual level of 4.8%. Following the same path, Urban Egypt inflation saw a 0.2% monthly increase in prices and an annual 4.5% reading; compared to a monthly decline of 0.4% and an annual level of 4.3% in January. The highlight of this month’s inflation is that Food & Beverages’ prices were unchanged, To...
- Sandy Eskaros
US Treasury Yields Shoot Up, Fears of a Taper Tantrum 2.0 Rise
WHAT IS HAPPENING TO US TREASURY YIELDS? By the end of February, US treasuries of long tenors have started sharply increasing in yield, as a sell off pressured bond prices down and raised yields up. US 10-year bond yields hit a year high of 1.54% on February 25th then stabilizing for a week to a low of 1.42% on March 2nd before resuming its rise again to a year-peak of 1.56% on March 6th. US 20- and 30-year bonds also followed the same path, as market participants fear the fast post-COVID-19 ...
- Sandy Eskaros
Egypt: Inflation decelerates in January – 50bps cut still on the table
INFLATION DECELERATES AS FOOD PRICES DROP IN JANUARY Inflation for total Egypt declined by 0.4% in January, its lowest monthly increment since September 2020, and accordingly decelerated annually to 4.8% in January compared to 6.0% YoY in December 2020. Urban Inflation followed the same path, declining 0.4% monthly and slowing down to 4.3% YoY. The price drop this month was driven by Food & Beverages declining 1.3% monthly and Transportation declining 0.4% monthly, with the remaining categori...
- Sandy Eskaros
Egypt Inflation Monitor: December prices fall, monetary easing to resu...
FOOD PRICE DECLINES BRING DECEMBER INFLATION DOWN Inflation for total Egypt declined in December by 0.5% mom, adding up to 6.0% yoy; compared to 1.1% mom and 6.3% yoy in November. Urban Inflation followed the same path closely declining by 0.4% mom and hitting 5.4% yoy; compared to 0.8% mom and 5.7% yoy in November. On a monthly basis, Food & Beverages recorded a price decline of 1.5% followed by a mild 0.3% decline in Clothing prices, while the remaining categories have been unchanged in Dec...
- Sandy Eskaros
Egypt: Inflation jumps in November; no rate cut on 24 December
Education scores biggest annual price hike while Food tops monthly price hikes Inflation for Total Egypt picked up strongly in November to hit 6.3% YoY and 1.1% MoM, compared to October’s levels of 4.6% YoY and 2.3% MoM which were already considered relatively high. Hence, November recorded the second highest inflation level in 2020, after the year’s peak in January. On an annual level, the highest growing category remains Education at 29.7% YoY, followed by Tobacco growing at 11%, and Recrea...
- Sandy Eskaros
Egypt Fiscal Monitor 1Q20/21: Stable balance and primary surplus
Budget deficit slightly widens; looks narrower as a % of GDP The budget deficit slightly narrowed to 2.2% of GDP in 1Q20/21 from 2.3% in 1Q19/20, however, the improvement was due to higher NGDP levels over the year rather than a nominally lower deficit figure. The deficit widened to EGP140bn in 1Q20/21 from EGP132bn in 1Q19/20. The slight deficit deterioration came from an 11% YoY growth in expenses to EGP337bn in 1Q20/21 from EGP303bn in 1Q19/20, which was not offset by the 18% YoY growth in...
- Sandy Eskaros
Egypt BoP Monitor| Pandemic hits FY19/20 balance to the worst seen sin...
POSITIVE DEVELOPMENTS FOR BOP IN FY2019/20: * The overall BOP registered a widening deficit of USD8.6bn in FY2019/20 compared to FY2018/19’s minor deficit of USD0.1bn. The Pandemic impact was visible for 3Q and 4Q, scoring a deficit of USD5.5bn and USD3.5bn respectively, which has taken BoP down to the worst year since 2011. * Trade Deficit narrowed to USD36bn in 2019/20, from USD38bn FY2018/19 as Imports declined to USD63bn from USD67bn; which was enough to offset the decline in export...
- Sandy Eskaros
Egypt inflation picks up in October; room for 50bps rate cut today
October’s inflation picks up on annual Education tuition increase October’s Inflation for total Egypt picked up to 4.6% YoY and 2.3% MoM, compared to 3.3% YoY and no monthly change in September; recording the highest monthly inflation rate since October 2018. Urban inflation followed the same path, rising 4.5% YoY and 1.8% MoM, against 3.7% YoY and 0.3% MoM in September. The surge this month could be almost entirely attributed to the Education category growing a dramatic 29.7% both annually a...
- Sandy Eskaros
Egypt: August inflation hits 2nd lowest level in 10 years; Stable inte...
AUGUST INFLATION DECELERATES TO ALMOST 10-YEAR LOW AS FOOD PRICES DECLINE SHARPLY, AND DESPITE AN UNFAVORABLE BASE EFFECT August inflation dropped to 3.6% YoY and fell by 0.3% MoM, compared to 4.6% YoY and 0.2% MoM in July 2020. Despite an unfavorable base effect from a drop in inflation levels back in August 2019, a sharp 2.6% monthly drop in food prices dragged overall inflation down in August and was enough to offset the sharp price surge of 4.8% in transportation cost and of 2.4% in healt...
- Sandy Eskaros
Egypt: July inflation decelerates; interest rates to remain unchanged
Annual inflation decelerates, as Food & Beverage prices decline, despite hike in Utilities prices July inflation slowed down to 4.6% YoY and 0.2% MoM, compared to 6.0% YoY and -0.1% MoM in June 2020. The deceleration reflects a sharp drop in Food & Beverages prices both monthly and annually: mainly the prices of heavy weight food items such as Fruits falling 3.7% MoM, Vegetables falling 1.8% MoM, and Meat & Poultry and Seafood both falling 2.3% MoM. On the other hand, inflationary pressures f...
- Diyar Hozaien
- Omar Attia
- Sandy Eskaros
- Zeyad Ahmed
Egypt Commodity and Material Prices: Sector outlook and trends – Q2 ...
* Nitrogen Fertilizer producers are ramping up capacity utilisation in an attempt to offset weak urea prices with the outlook still uncertain. * Petrochemicals have fared worse than their Agrochemical peers, as they have been enduring so far an unprecedented crash in oil prices, despite the recent recovery, and demand shocks for almost all crude oil distillates. * Consumer stocks will benefit from the low prices of food and oil-based commodities persisting throughout the quarter, ...
- Sandy Eskaros
June inflation picks up; Interest rates to remain unchanged
Annual inflation accelerates, mainly on the base effect; despite weak monthly reading June Inflation picks up to 6.0% YoY despite slightly falling 0.1% MoM, compared to 5.0% YoY and 0.1% MoM in May 2020. The pick up is highlighting the start of the unfavorable base effect where inflation had almost halved starting June 2019 and entered the single digit zone. The highest growing category on a monthly basis was Tobacco, rising 4.2% MoM while it usually remains stable unless new taxes are implem...
- Sandy Eskaros
Egypt: May's inflation decelerates; interest rates to remain unchanged
Inflation in May decelerated to 5.0% YoY for total Egypt, from 5.9% in April. The slowdown was supported by a slight MoM growth of 0.1%, and annual decline of 0.3% in Food prices and a high base effect from higher inflation levels in May 2019. May's inflation for urban Egypt also slowed down to 4.7% YoY, unchanged monthly, from 5.9% YoY in April. May 2019's inflation being higher than April 2019's offset the monthly stability and resulted in a YoY deceleration. On an annual basis, inflation w...
- Sandy Eskaros
Expansionskurs beschleunigt sich im Q1/20 - Erwartung übertroffen –...
Q1/20 war von kräftiger Wachstumsbeschleunigung geprägt und überraschte die Analysten. Damit hat die jetzt „voll bestätigte“ Guidance 20 ihren Sicherheitspuffer spürbar ausgeweitet. Ergänzt um das zugekaufte Consumer-Geschäft, soll ein zum Vj. höheres originäres Umsatzwachstum erzielt werden. Die angekündigte Produktinnovation und der Kapazitätsaufbau bei CoinPower lassen das adj. Plan-EBITDA ggü. Vj. dynamischer wachsen, obgleich die durchfinanzierte Expansionsfinanzierung steigt. CEO H. Schei...
- Sandy Eskaros
Egypt: CBE webinar key takeaways – Covid-19 implications and outlook
The CBE conducted a webinar yesterday addressing how Egypt is facing the economic shock posed by Covid-19, what their strategy is for the necessary intervention to ensure a smooth reaction and what their outlook is for the economy as it fights and recovers from Covid-19. The effective structural reforms recently taken are the reason Egypt's stands steady against this shock The IMF's Extended Fund Facility (EFF) taken in 2016 was used to bridge the balance of payments shortfalls accompanying n...
- Sandy Eskaros
Egypt inflation picks up in April, interest rates to remain unchanged
Pre-Ramadan demand takes Food prices up Inflation for total Egypt accelerated to 5.9% YoY in April 2020, from 4.6% YoY in March. This acceleration is explained by the rise in demand for food items that usually occurs on the month preceding Ramadan. This demand surge was reflected on Food & Beverages and Tobacco categories MoM. Inflation was driven by its heaviest constituents: Food, Utilities and Healthcare Both on an annual and monthly level, April inflation was driven by non-food items as...
- Sandy Eskaros
Egypt Inflation Monitor: March inflation decelerates, rates to be main...
Inflation in March 2020 fell to 4.6% yoy for total Egypt, from 4.9% yoy in February, continuing a 4-month decline. This came very close to our expectations of 0.5% mom and 4.5% yoy. The deceleration was supported by a price decline in the transportation category as well as a mild price growth in food & beverages, despite a price hike in the tobacco category following the imposition of new tobacco taxes on 26 February. On an annual and monthly level, March inflation was driven by non-food item...
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