reports
- Ole Martin Westgaard
Norwegian Air Shuttle (Buy, TP: NOK16.00) - Positive 2025 outlook
While underlying Q1 results were weaker than we expected, we still see a positive outlook for 2025, with solid bookings, a narrowed CASK guidance supported by a NOK1bn profit improvement programme by 2026, FX, and fuel tailwinds. We reiterate our BUY, but have cut our target price to NOK16 (17) on estimate reductions.
- Ole Martin Westgaard
Sats (Hold, TP: NOK37.00) - Time for a breather
Q1 was slightly below expectations and the CMD targets were broadly in line with our forecasts and consensus. We have raised our target price to NOK37 (34) on higher estimates but have downgraded to HOLD (BUY), as we find the valuation fair following the recent strong share price performance.
- Ole Martin Westgaard
Schibsted (Sell, TP: NOK290.00) - Muted growth continues
The Q1 results were above expectations on lower-than-expected costs, while growth continued to be muted. We reiterate our SELL as we continue to find the valuation high relative to growth prospects, but have raised our target price to NOK290 (280) on increased estimates.
- Ole Martin Westgaard
Norwegian Air Shuttle (Buy, TP: NOK17.00) - April traffic statistics
We consider this a slightly positive report for Norwegian Air Shuttle, including figures more or less in line with expectations, with a marginally lower yield offset by a higher load, and positive outlook comments with regard to summer bookings. We expect only minor changes to consensus 2025e adj. EBITDA, and believe a neutral to slightly positive share price reaction is warranted.
- Ole Martin Westgaard
Schibsted (Sell, TP: NOK280.00) - Prisjakt sold at low price
Schibsted has signed an agreement to sell Prisjakt to eEquity for SEK500m. We find the price low, at c40% of our SOTP value, but find it positive that the company continues to simplify its portfolio to focus on Nordic Marketplaces. We expect a slightly negative share price reaction.
- Ole Martin Westgaard
Norwegian Air Shuttle (Buy, TP: NOK17.00) - April traffic statistics p...
April’s traffic statistics are due at 08:00 CET on 7 May. We are positive ahead of the report, expecting a strong yield recovery supported by Easter timing effects and easing capacity growth. We reiterate our BUY and have raised our target price to NOK17 (15) on positive estimate changes on our revised fuel and USDNOK assumptions.
- Ole Martin Westgaard
Komplett (Hold, TP: NOK11.00) - Soft Q1, but outlook improves on gamin...
The Q1 results missed consensus, but we find the gross margin gain and outlook comments for improved sales supported by new product innovation encouraging. We reiterate our HOLD but have raised our target price to NOK11 (8) supported by positive estimate revisions.
- Ole Martin Westgaard
XXL ASA (Hold, TP: NOK11.00) - Encouraging LFL growth
The Q1 results were below expectations, but we find the positive LFL growth encouraging amid challenging winter conditions and years of consecutive negative LFL growth. We have reinstated our recommendation at HOLD (NO REC) and target price at NOK11 (N/A), as the earnings trend remains subdued and near-term multiples and financial risk are high. However, this is partly offset by Frasers' NOK10 per share bid for the company.
- Ole Martin Westgaard
XXL ASA (No_rec, TP: NOK) - Q1 below, but back to growth
We consider this a slightly negative report for XXL, including figures below expectations despite revenue growth in a quarter with challenging winter conditions. We expect consensus 2025e EBITDA to come down 3–5% and find a slight negative share price reaction warranted.
- Ole Martin Westgaard
Europris (Buy, TP: NOK90.00) - Well-equipped for a harsher climate
Q1 earnings were below expectations, partly due to negative currency hedging effects in Norway and Sweden, and continued weakness in Sweden. However, we believe Europris is well-positioned for the current market climate and expect a successful turnaround in Sweden by 2028. We reiterate our BUY as we continue to find the valuation attractive, but have cut our target price to NOK90 (95) on lowered estimates.
- Ole Martin Westgaard
- Ole Martin Westgaard
Norwegian Air Shuttle (Buy, TP: NOK15.00) - March traffic statistics
We consider this a slightly soft report for Norwegian Air Shuttle, with a slightly weaker load and yield for Norwegian Air only partly offset by strong performance from Widerøe. We expect consensus 2025e adj. EBITDA to come down by c1% on the back of the report and believe a neutral to slightly negative share price reaction is warranted.
- Ole Martin Westgaard
Elmera Group (Sell, TP: NOK24.00) - Fixed prices, variable risks
We remain lukewarm ahead of the Q1 report, expecting below-consensus results on lower volumes due to the warm weather. We continue to question the sustainability of the business model given the still-high contribution from variable contracts and potential negative impact from the introduction of a fixed-price regime in Norway. We reiterate our SELL and NOK24 target price, despite slight negative estimate revisions.
- Ole Martin Westgaard
Norwegian Air Shuttle (Buy, TP: NOK15.00) - Tailwinds ahead
We expect Norwegian Air Shuttle to report a weak Q1, hit by high capacity growth and Easter timing effects. However, we find the outlook for the summer season increasingly encouraging, with healthy demand, low supply growth and a positive cost impact from a weaker USD. We reiterate our BUY and have raised our target price to NOK15 (13) on positive revisions.
- Ole Martin Westgaard
Schibsted (Sell, TP: NOK280.00) - Falling short early, high hopes late...
We are significantly below consensus for Q1e EBITDA, expecting underperformance in all segments and verticals, except for Real Estate. We reiterate our SELL and have lowered our target price to NOK280 (290) on our estimate revisions. At our new target price, Schibsted would be trading at a c10% discount to our SOTP.
- Ole Martin Westgaard
Elektroimportøren (Buy, TP: NOK15.00) - Signs of market improvement
Our Q1 forecasts are slightly below consensus, but with continued improvement YOY on solid revenue growth, gross margin improvement and cost control in both countries. We reiterate our BUY and NOK15 target price as we continue to find the valuation attractive, with signs of improved financial performance and market conditions.
- Ole Martin Westgaard
KID (Buy, TP: NOK175.00) - Soft goods, strong growth
We expect Kid to report Q1 slightly below consensus and in line with Q1 2024, as it faces tough comparables on gross margins due to early price increases last year ahead of higher freight costs. We reiterate our BUY and NOK175 target price, as we believe Kid’s superior growth prospects, profitability, and historical track record are still not reflected in its valuation.
- Ole Martin Westgaard
Orkla (Hold, TP: NOK110.00) - Colouring outside expectations
We expect Orkla to report Q1 EBIT broadly in line with consensus, but with net profit above on continued strength at Jotun. We reiterate our HOLD and NOK110 target price as we continue to find valuation fair, with the stock trading slightly below its historical discount to SOTP.
- Ole Martin Westgaard
Komplett (Hold, TP: NOK8.00) - Significantly below Q1 consensus
We are significantly below consensus on Q1e adj. EBIT, as we expect continued strong revenue growth to be more than offset by gross margin pressure due to high competition. We reiterate our HOLD and NOK8 target price, despite negative estimate revisions.
- Ole Martin Westgaard
Europris (Buy, TP: NOK95.00) - Strong Q1 masked by late Easter
We are positive ahead of Q1, expecting results in line with consensus and on a par with last year, on solid LFL growth in Norway despite a late Easter. We reiterate our BUY and NOK95 target price, as we continue to find the valuation attractive relative to peers on earnings multiples excluding ÖoB’s long-term value potential.
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