After BASF has gradually lifted Force Majeure status on its vitamin operations in the past few months, vitamin prices have normalized quickly and the temporary pricing benefit dsm-firmenich enjoyed is now about to come to an end. As we were previously still banking on a more gradual normalization and still a bit of benefit in 2026, we have now adjusted our forecasts. We expect dsm-firmenich to still announce an ANH divestment in the near term and bank on a deal value of c. € 4bn. Taking into acc...
We initiate coverage on Cementir with a BUY rating and € 18 target price. Cementir's diversified footprint with some key regional strongholds like Denmark and Belgium along with a deeply vertically integrated model in those regions allows to realize solid profitability, as witnessed by a 24% group EBITDA margin and 17% ROCE in 2024. A sizeable net cash position gives Cementir significant firepower for acquisitions in a still fragmented cement industry whilst the presence of a reference sharehold...
1H adjusted EBITDA dropped by c. 20% which was below our expectations. Belysse. The decline is entirely due to Europe, as the US business held up very well and even increased adjusted EBITDA y/y, on stable volumes and higher unitary margins. After the weaker than expected 1H performance, we have lowered our FY25/26 adjusted EBITDA forecasts by c. 9%. Nevertheless, European volumes appear to be bottoming out and any volume rebound might have a significant positive effect on margins. Valuation con...
In this September update we added 2 stocks to the KBC Securities Dynamic Top Pick List : We added AB InBev after the share price weakened post-2Q results. ABI's 2Q volumes fell 1.9% organically, below expectations, mainly due to a 9% drop in Brazil where a price hike led to temporary market share loss. However, strong revenue per hl growth (+4.9%) drove a 6.5% organic EBITDA increase, with 1H growth at +7.2%, near the top of FY guidance (+4–8%). AB InBev, the world's largest brewer, generates ...
Recticel has posted solid double digit top line growth in 1H25 with a flattish adj EBITDA margin. The € 27.7m adj EBITDA figure was c. 8% below our forecast and 7% below consensus. The fresh FY25 adjusted EBITDA guidance calls for c. 10% growth which was below our and consensus forecasts (of c. +24%). Positive is that building permit levels are starting to pick up in some geographies. The strategic growth projects in the US (Insulated Panels Plant) and Belgium (Recycling plant) are progressing a...
Recticel has posted solid double digit top line growth in 1H25 with a flattish adj EBITDA margin. The € 27.7m adj EBITDA figure was c. 8% below our forecast and 7% below consensus. The fresh FY25 adjusted EBITDA guidance calls for c. 10% growth which is below our and consensus forecasts (of c. +24%). Positive is that building permit levels are starting to pick up in some geographies. The strategic growth projects in the US (Insulated Panels Plant) and Belgium (Recycling plant) are progressing ac...
Below are the highlights from the conference call. Tessenderlo's 1H results positively surprised, with adj EBITDA up 8% y/y to 163.4m, which was 19% better than our forecast and 12% above consensus. The company reiterated its broad FY25 guidance range, with consensus currently at the midpoint of the range whilst KBCS estimates are at the low end of the guidance range (and will be upped somewhat). The company is using its solid balance sheet and FCF to buy back own shares. We consider valuation t...
Tessenderlo's 1H results positively surprised, with adj EBITDA up 8% y/y to 163.4m, which was 19% better than our forecast and 12% above consensus. The company reiterated its broad FY25 guidance range, with consensus currently at the midpoint of the range whilst KBCS estimates are at the low end of the guidance range (and will be upped somewhat). The company is using its solid balance sheet and FCF to buy back own shares. We consider valuation to be attractive enough from maintaining our Accumul...
Deceuninck reported a 16% drop in 1H adj EBITDA, about 6% below our forecast and 5% below consensus. The environment is expected to remain challenging in Turkiye, with the US showing some early signs of improvement. We will probably revise our estimates slightly downwards. While acknowledging the cyclical character of Deceuninck, we expect support from the EU Green Deal in the coming years while also Recycling activities still have significant structural growth potential. Valuation is clearly at...
Deceuninck reported a 16% drop in 1H adj EBITDA, about 6% below our forecast and 5% below consensus. The environment is expected to remain challenging in Turkiye, with the US showing some early signs of improvement. We will probably revise our estimates slightly downwards. While acknowledging the cyclical character of Deceuninck, we expect support from the EU Green Deal in the coming years while also Recycling activities still have significant structural growth potential. Valuation is clearly at...
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