reports
- Guy Sips
- Hilde Van Boxstael
- Jacob Mekhael
- Kristof Samoy
- Livio Luyten
- Thomas Couvreur
- Wim Hoste
- Wim Lewi
- Wim Hoste
Umicore FIRST LOOK: 1H adj EBITDA +10%, recently upped guidance reiter...
1H25 adj. EBITDA increased by 10% to 433m and Umicore reiterated the (recently upgraded) FY25 adj EBITDA guidance of 790-840m (+7% y/y at midpoint), reflecting oa the progress with efficiency improvement measures and advantageous metal prices. Umicore is a combination of different tales, with the foundation businesses (Catalysis, Recycling, Specialty Materials) mainly run for their cash generation potential whilst Battery Materials remains a potential growth driver, although Umicore does not int...
- Wim Hoste
Titan 1H25 results show underlying strength, despite US headwinds
Titan reported resilient 1H25 results with EBITDA up 2% y/y, which was about 1% better than our forecast. We continue to remain optimistic on TITAN's prospects in the US and remind that only one third of Titan America's sales is imported in the US (with future tariff rate settled at 15%). Additionally, the US remains a net-import market in which c. 24% of consumption is imported, implying that, over the short to medium-term, local production alone will not allow to suffice demand. In light of th...
- Hilde Van Boxstael
- Jacob Mekhael
- Michiel Declercq
- Thibault Leneeuw
- Thomas Couvreur
- Wim Hoste
- Wim Lewi
- Wim Hoste
Bekaert FIRST LOOK: 1H uEBIT -16%, FY uEBIT margin lowered by 30-80bps
1H uEBIT declined by 16% which was in line with our forecast and 4% below consensus. Bekaert lowered FY25 uEBIT margin guidance from flat (8.8%) to an 8.0-8.5% range and we reduced our FY25 uEBIT forecast by 6%. The gradually improving portfolio profile, compelling valuation (EV/EBITDA25E of c. 4x), solid FCF generation and ongoing support from the € 200m SBB program prompt us to maintain our BUY rating and € 55 TP.
- Wim Hoste
Syensqo FIRST LOOK: 2Q uEBITDA -11%, FY25 guidance adjusted for FX and...
2Q underlying EBITDA declined by 11% to € 335m, which was c.2% above our and consensus forecasts. Syensqo lowered FY25 underlying EBITDA guidance by c. € 100m to € 1.3bn to account for FX changes and tariffs. Despite the weak current earnings momentum, we believe that cost efficiency measures and portfolio streamlining should eventually be positive for the investment case. We continue to believe valuation is attractive and we reiterate our BUY rating and € 90 target price.
- Wim Hoste
Solvay Feedback conference call
Below are the key highlights from the conference call. Solvay's 1Q25 uEBITDA dropped 15% to € 230m, in line with the recent profit warning. Solvay reiterated the (recently cut) FY25 underlying EBITDA guidance of € 880-930m (c. -12% at midpoint vs the previous € 1.0-1.05bn range), citing continued soft demand in a context of tariff and geopolitical uncertainty. Solvay had already stated to maintain FCF guidance of c. € 300m (on the back of more prudent capex spending) which however still means th...
- Guy Sips
- Hilde Van Boxstael
- Jacob Mekhael
- Kristof Samoy
- Lynn Hautekeete
- Michiel Declercq
- Thibault Leneeuw
- Thomas Couvreur
- Wim Hoste
- Wim Lewi
- Wim Hoste
Solvay FIRST LOOK: 2Q results and FY guidance in line with recent prof...
Solvay's 1Q25 uEBITDA dropped 15% to € 230m, in line with the recent profit warning. Solvay reiterated the (recently cut) FY25 underlying EBITDA guidance of € 880-930m (c. -12% at midpoint vs the previous € 1.0-1.05bn range), citing continued soft demand in a context of tariff and geopolitical uncertainty. Solvay had already stated to maintain FCF guidance of c. € 300m (on the back of more prudent capex spending) which however still means that almost all FCF is absorbed to pay the high and commi...
- Hilde Van Boxstael
- Jacob Mekhael
- Kristof Samoy
- Livio Luyten
- Thibault Leneeuw
- Wim Hoste
- Wim Lewi
- Wim Hoste
Heineken FIRST LOOK: 1H operating profit beia +7.4%, FY guidance of +4...
1H organic operating profit (beia) growth of +7.4% beat our and consensus expectations (of c. 3%), on solid progress with efficiency measures (over €300m). Heineken did reiterate FY organic operating profit (beia) growth guidance of 4-8% (KBCS 4%, CSS 5%). We still appreciate Heineken for the organic earnings recovery potential in coming years (c. 6% organic operating profit beia CAGR estimate over 2024-2027), supported by sizeable cost savings initiatives (€ 400m/y) and payback from gradually i...
- Hilde Van Boxstael
- Jacob Mekhael
- Livio Luyten
- Lynn Hautekeete
- Michiel Declercq
- Thibault Leneeuw
- Thomas Couvreur
- Wim Hoste
- Hilde Van Boxstael
- Livio Luyten
- Lynn Hautekeete
- Michiel Declercq
- Wim Hoste
- Wim Hoste
Akzo Nobel FIRST LOOK: 2Q adj EBITDA -2%, FY EBITDA guidance lowered b...
2Q adjusted EBITDA dropped by 2% y/y and came in about 2% below our and consensus forecasts. Akzo lowered FY25 adj EBITDA guidance by c. 5% (from ‘above € 1.55bn' to ‘above € 1.48bn'), attributing the reduction to FX changes. The new guidance calls for an adj EBITDA that would be at least flat, with performance supported by € 170m targeted gross savings. Taking into account the volatile track record and low structural growth, we maintain our Hold rating and € 65 target price.
- Hilde Van Boxstael
- Michiel Declercq
- Wim Hoste
- Wim Hoste
Ontex Rating downgrade after profit warning
After a weak 2Q/1H25 performance with negative LFL growth due to weak consumer demand, intensified promotional pressure by A-brands, customer destocking and supply chain disruptions, Ontex has lowered its adjusted EBITDA guidance by c. 13% (at the midpoint of the guidance range). Whilst we still believe in the growth prospects of the US business on the back of lower private label penetration and Ontex' challenger status, we cannot be blind for the intensified competition in Europe and the low st...
- Hilde Van Boxstael
- Livio Luyten
- Michiel Declercq
- Thibault Leneeuw
- Wim Hoste
- Wim Hoste
Ontex FIRST LOOK: Profit warning
Ontex issued disappointing 2Q results, with adj EBITDA down 37%, and issued a considerable profit warning on FY25 adj EBITDA, revising down guidance by c. 13% (midpoint of range). Whilst the company is expecting improving momentum in 2H on the end of customer destocking and the ramp-up of new contracts, today's news is clearly disappointing. We will lower our forecasts significantly and expect a negative share price reaction today.
- Wim Hoste
Solvay Model update following lowered FY25 underlying EBITDA guidance
Solvay has cut its FY25 underlying EBITDA guidance from a € 1.0-1.05bn range to € 880-930m (c. -12% at midpoint), citing soft demand in a context of tariff and geopolitical uncertainty. Solvay maintains FCF guidance of c. € 300m (on the back of more prudent capex spending) which however means that almost all FCF is absorbed to pay the high and committed dividend of € 2.43 per share. On the attractive valuation and dividend yield (of c. 8%), we maintain our Accumulate rating whilst lowering our t...
- Hilde Van Boxstael
- Michiel Declercq
- Thibault Leneeuw
- Wim Hoste
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