reports
- Wim Hoste
Belysse 1Q25 revenue -4.3%, reflecting weaker performance in Europe
1Q revenue dropped by 4.3%, reflecting weaker demand in Europe against a tough comparable. 1Q adjusted EBITDA declined, due to a lower performance in Europe despite growth in the US. After the weaker than expected 1Q performance, we have lowered our FY25/26 adjusted EBITDA forecasts by c. 5%. Valuation continues to look attractive and prompts us to reiterate our Accumulate rating and € 1.6 target price.
- Guy Sips
- Hilde Van Boxstael
- Jacob Mekhael
- Livio Luyten
- Lynn Hautekeete
- Sharad Kumar S.P
- Thibault Leneeuw
- Thomas Couvreur
- Wim Hoste
- Wim Lewi
- Wim Hoste
Corbion Powerhouse in lactic acid with solid start of the year
Corbion realized a strong 1Q25 performance with 54% organic adjusted EBITDA growth and the company reiterated the FY25 organic adjusted EBITDA growth guidance of >25%, stating it only sees a small direct net impact of tariffs on its results. Despite the comforting 1Q result and guidance reiteration, we have lowered our FY25 adj EBITDA forecast by almost 1%, on the back of the weakening USD. We continue to appreciate Corbion for its market leadership in lactic acid, top notch ESG profile and grow...
- Wim Hoste
Umicore FIRST LOOK: 1Q qualitative trading update, FY25 guidance reite...
Umicore issued an unexpected (qualitative) trading update in which it also reiterated its FY25 adjusted EBITDA guidance range of € 720-780m. Given the uncertain economic outlook, we decided to lower our forecast by 3% to € 734m, closer to the bottom end of the guidance range. We remind that Umicore recently organized a CMD, expressing the ambition to try to monetize past investments in Battery Materials, acknowledging that some additional capex and equity investment into the Ionway JV are still ...
- Kristof Samoy
- Michiel Declercq
- Thibault Leneeuw
- Thomas Couvreur
- Wim Hoste
- Wim Hoste
Akzo Nobel FIRST LOOK: 1Q adj EBITDA -2%, FY guidance of € 1.55bn EBIT...
Akzo's 1Q adjusted EBITDA decreased by 2% and came in c. 3% below our forecast and c. 3% above consensus. FY25 adj EBITDA guidance of above €1555m is maintained and calls for at least 5% growth, whilst most of the predicted growth comes from self help measures. Taking into account the volatile track record and low structural growth, we maintain our Hold rating and € 65 TP.
- Wim Hoste
Corbion FIRST LOOK: 1Q EBITDA +58%, guidance of >25% EBITDA growth kep...
Corbion announced much better than expected 1Q results, with adjusted EBITDA up 58% and about 20% better than our forecast and 23% above consensus. Whilst 1Q results were partly aided by phasing, Corbion reiterated FY25 guidance of >25% adj EBITDA growth. We appreciate Corbion for its leading position in lactic acid and consider valuation to be attractive. We maintain our Accumulate rating and € 26 TP.
- Hilde Van Boxstael
- Lynn Hautekeete
- Michiel Declercq
- Thomas Couvreur
- Wim Hoste
- Wim Lewi
- Wim Hoste
Heineken Model update post 1Q, still seeing FY25 operating profit orga...
We updated our model after Heineken did report (yesterday) a fairly weak 1Q trading update with beer volumes down 2.1% y/y, impacted ao by the timing of Easter, Tet and one trading day less. Heineken did stick to its FY25 guidance range of 4-8% organic operating profit (beia) growth, although bigger negative FX effects prompt us to lower our FY25 operating profit (beia) forecast by c. 4% in absolute terms, whilst still retaining a 5% organic growth forecast. We still appreciate Heineken for the ...
- Wim Hoste
Heineken Feedback conference call
Below are the highlights of the conference call. As previously hinted at, Heineken did report a fairly weak 1Q trading update with beer volumes down 2.1%, impacted ao by the timing of Easter, Tet and one trading day less. Importantly, Heineken did stick to its FY25 guidance range of 4-8% organic operating profit (beia) growth. We still appreciate Heineken for the earnings recovery potential in coming years, supported by sizeable cost savings initiatives (€ 400m/y). We maintain our Accumulate rat...
- Wim Hoste
Heineken FIRST LOOK: 1Q beer volume -2.1%, FY guidance maintained
As previously hinted at, Heineken did report a fairly weak 1Q trading update with beer volumes down 2.1%, impacted ao by the timing of Easter, Tet and one trading day less. Importantly, Heineken did stick to its FY25 guidance range of 4-8% organic operating profit (beia) growth. We still appreciate Heineken for the earnings recovery potential in coming years, supported by sizeable cost savings initiatives (€ 400m/y). We maintain our Accumulate rating and € 100 target price.
- Guy Sips
- Kristof Samoy
- Livio Luyten
- Thibault Leneeuw
- Wim Hoste
- Wim Lewi
- Guy Sips
- Jacob Mekhael
- Kristof Samoy
- Lynn Hautekeete
- Michiel Declercq
- Sharad Kumar S.P
- Thibault Leneeuw
- Thomas Couvreur
- Thomas Vranken
- Wim Hoste
- Wim Lewi
US Tariffs Navigating the impact on Benelux equities
Trumps reciprocal tariffs caused a massive blow to equity markets, following a pressured period of escalating trade wars. Retaliatory measures can further heavily damage market confidence, as seen Friday when China announced their 34% tarrif of US goods. International trade policies have never moved this erratic and untransparant, with uncertainty and volatility being the baseline for now. In this report we highlight the key stocks in our coverage relevant to this discussion.
EURN EURONAV NV
ABN ABN AMRO BANK NV DEPOSITARY RECEIPTS
FAGR FAGRON SA
EVS EVS BROADCAST EQUIPMENT SA
XIOR XIOR STUDENT HOUSING N.V.
SOLB SOLVAY SA
UCB UCB S.A.
COFB COFINIMMO SA
DIE D'IETEREN SA
AGFB AGFA-GEVAERT NV
IBAB ION BEAM APPLICATIONS SA
AALB AALBERTS N.V.
ONTEX ONTEX GROUP N.V.
MELE MELEXIS NV
CSM CORBION NV
ABI ANHEUSER-BUSCH INBEV SA/NV
EXO EXOR N.V.
ASML ASML HOLDING NV
ARGX ARGEN-X SE
BESI BE SEMICONDUCTOR INDUSTRIES N.V.
ADYEN ADYEN NV
AUTL AUTOLUS THERAPEUTICS ADS
BAR BARCO NV
DEME DEME GROUP NV
FLOW FLOW TRADERS LTD
SYENS SYENSQO
- Hilde Van Boxstael
- Thomas Couvreur
- Wim Hoste
- Wim Hoste
Umicore Will the real cash flow generator please stand up?
Last week's long awaited strategy update highlighted Umicore's ambition to try to monetize past investments in Battery Materials, acknowledging that some additional capex and equity investment into the Ionway JV are still necessary to achieve this. In the meantime, the company will actively explore partnerships in Battery Materials. The financial targets for Battery Materials were above our expectations and the same can be said for the foundation businesses, particularly Catalysis, which is to b...
- Guy Sips
- Hilde Van Boxstael
- Kristof Samoy
- Lynn Hautekeete
- Michiel Declercq
- Thomas Couvreur
- Wim Hoste
- Guy Sips
- Jacob Mekhael
- Kristof Samoy
- Livio Luyten
- Lynn Hautekeete
- Michiel Declercq
- Sharad Kumar S.P
- Thibault Leneeuw
- Thomas Couvreur
- Thomas Vranken
- Wim Hoste
- Wim Lewi
Dynamic Top Pick List Update April 2025: Removing Gimv – Adding Adyen
In this April 2025 update of the KBC Securities' Dynamic Top Pick List, we are removing Gimv and adding Adyen. Since adding Gimv to the Dynamic Top Pick List in mid-December 2024, Gimv's performance has remained flat. However, month-to-date, it has increased by nearly 7%, while the indices have all declined. Given the backdrop of a tariff war brewing, we think it's time to remove Gimv from the Dynamic Top Pick List as medium-sized businesses are more likely to feel the pinch of lower demand and...
- Guy Sips
- Jacob Mekhael
- Lynn Hautekeete
- Michiel Declercq
- Sharad Kumar S.P
- Thomas Couvreur
- Wim Hoste
- Wim Hoste
Ontex FIRST LOOK: Closing divestment of Brazilian business
Ontex has closed the earlier announced divestment of its Brazilian business, with closing of the Turkish business still on the agenda (scheduled for 3Q). Closing the Turkish divestment will complete the strategic transformation towards becoming a private-label focussed personal hygiene player in Europe and North America. Whilst Ontex is an established market leader in Europe, it is a challenger in North America which is characterized by much lower penetration of private label products. Whilst th...
- Guy Sips
- Jacob Mekhael
- Thomas Vranken
- Wim Hoste
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