After today's changes (ASMi out, UCB in), we maintain a balanced approach in our Dynamic Top Pick List, with a particular emphasis on value stocks that have been overlooked. Our defensive holdings are overweight, including real estate, which stands to benefit from lower interest rates. We remove ASMi from our Dynamic Top Pick List as the recent share price performance has driven the valuation meaningfully ahead of fundamentals. Since early December, FY27 diluted EPS expectations have risen by a...
Akzo's 4Q25 results were roughly in line with previous quarters, with weak volumes and negative FX leading to a slight decline in adjusted EBITDA, despite sizeable efficiency improvement initiatives. 2026 is expected to bring more of the same, with Akzo forecasting flat volumes and an FY26 adjusted EBITDA that is guided to be up at least 2% (or at least 7% excluding negative FX and scope effects). With current efficiency improvement initiatives expected to have mostly run their course in 2027, t...
4Q adjusted EBITDA dropped by 4% y/y and was in line with our forecast while being 2% below consensus. Akzo guides for a FY26 adj EBITDA at or above € 1.47bn, which is at the low end 2% below our forecast and 4% below consensus. The merger with Axalta is expected to close in late 2026 or early 2027. Taking into account the volatile track record and low structural growth, we maintain our Hold rating and € 65 target price.
Titan has completed the earlier announced acquisition of the cementitious business of Vracs de l'Estuaire. The acquisition complements Titan's European footprint and also fits well within TITAN's Forward 2029 Strategic plan which was presented in November 2025, and which targets to grow EBITDA by 62% to € 1bn by 2029 on a combination of organic growth initiatives and M&A in regions where the company has an established footprint and acquisitions offer sizeable synergies potential. Overall, TITAN ...
Increased pressure in the soda ash market prompts us to take a more conservative approach with regards to contract terms for the coming years, resulting in a reduction of our group EBITDA forecasts for 2026-2028 by between 6-11%. The dividend policy of a stable to increasing dividend from a € 2.43 base looks increasingly generous as servicing the dividend representing the vast majority of current FCF generation, limiting the group's ability to pursue other growth initiatives. Despite the attract...
Bekaert's € 60m acquisition of Bridgestone's captive tire cord business in Thailand and China fits within a long track record of similar acquisitions and further strengthens Bekaert's relationship with Bridgestone, one of the leading global tire makers. With a net debt/EBITDA of only 0.7x, Bekaert can easily fund this acquisition. In general, management has been looking at M&A to accelerate growth, although sizeable M&A is having a tough time to compete against share buybacks in terms of attract...
Ontex decided to accelerate its earlier announced CEO transition plan with Mr Nielly, President of Ontex Europe, to become the new CEO immediately. Ontex announced the launch of a strategic review, which seems mainly directed to enhancing the company's performance at this stage. We still see larger strategic moves like a combination with a US-focused peer as an eventual end game for Ontex, given the limited structural growth of its industry and the limitations to operational improvements. Despit...
Titan America announced an agreement to acquire Keystone for $310m, which will further expand its US operations and provides an attractive fit with the existing US footprint. The acquisition also fits well within TITAN's Forward 2029 Strategic plan which was presented in November 2025, and which targets to grow EBITDA by 62% to € 1bn by 2029 on a combination of organic growth initiatives and M&A in regions where the company has an established footprint and acquisitions offer sizeable synergies p...
We upgrade our forecasts for the coming years with our 2030E adjusted EBITDA estimate upped by c. 8%. Loosening EU standards on CO2 emission regulation for cars & vans provide some additional support to the Catalysts business, whilst we have kept our forecasts for Battery Materials unchanged as these were already below the company's CMD targets and upside to our numbers will have to come from new supply arrangements/partnerships. The very strong metal price environment will most likely allow Umi...
Titan announced a new strategic partnership in advanced mortars, which fits well within the Forward 2029 Strategic plan which was presented last month, and which targets to grow EBITDA by 62% to € 1bn by 2029 on a combination of organic growth initiatives and M&A in regions where the company has an established footprint and acquisitions offer sizeable synergies potential. Overall, TITAN is seeking growth in the coming years in both its core heavy materials businesses as well as through growing i...
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