reports
- Alessio Chiesa
- Raffaella Tenconi
- Alessio Chiesa
- Raffaella Tenconi
- Alessio Chiesa
- Raffaella Tenconi
EME Macro/Strategy: macro all-in-one (13-19 March)
The US-Iran conflict has progressed and has led us to revise up our inflation projections, in line with the guidance we published at the inception of the conflict. Today, we present a first attempt on a scenario of a protracted conflict, which covers the whole year and would most likely trigger rate hikes. We have two surveys available so far that capture the impact of the conflict on businesses and consumers – their message is of caution, but not imminent spending cuts. We flag that pockets of ...
- Alessio Chiesa
- Raffaella Tenconi
WOOD Flash – Kazakhstan macro: constitutional reform lays groundwork f...
Yesterday (15 March), Kazakhstan voted on a new constitution, proposed by President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev last September. The early results indicate around 87% support (with the voter turnout at 73.24%), broadly in line with the pre-referendum polling (close to 90%), making the outcome largely expected, in a not very competitive election. While the constitutional package is broad and, as with most structural reforms, includes both positive and controversial elements, the key implication lies els...
- Jakub Caithaml
WOOD Flash – Aegean Airlines: 4Q25 – below both our and the consensus ...
With its comfortable liquidity position and hedges for c.60% of anticipated fuel consumption in place, we do not expect Aegean to run into serious problems, unless the disruption to travel, from the war and the high level of fuel prices, becomes very protracted. However, it is too early to assess the impact on this year's earnings, which could be significant – among other things, we may see Aegean redeploying the capacity flying previously to the Middle East to elsewhere in its network (which wo...
- Alessio Chiesa
- Raffaella Tenconi
EME Macro/Strategy: the state of consumption in EEMEA
Despite solid real wage growth and healthier household balance sheets, private consumption growth post 2022 has recovered less briskly and with more volatility than what has been seen in past recovery periods. Subdued consumer sentiment and only gradual improvements in perceived inflation have encouraged households to build larger savings buffers. The Iran conflict poses downside risks to consumption growth, if the conflict persists beyond a few months, by 1-2ppts slower spending in the coming y...
- Alessio Chiesa
- Raffaella Tenconi
WOOD Flash – EEMEA macro: further thoughts on the energy crisis and co...
It is legitimate to wonder how the current conflict in Iran may develop, going forward, and what parallel/lessons we could draw, compared to the inception of the Russia/Ukraine conflict in 2022. Back in 2022, the economies in EEMEA were in an inflationary phase: the COVID-19 stimulus was strong, labour shortages were significant, and the double energy-fertilisers shock added significantly to inflation momentum. Currently, most of EEMEA is running a negative output gap, the labour markets are tig...
- Jakub Caithaml
WOOD Flash – CEE real estate: yields cheat sheet
The majority of European real estate seems to have sailed through the rate hikes surprisingly smoothly. There appears to be a broad consensus among companies and realtors that the trough in values may have passed, and that 2026E may see a continued transaction volume recovery, led by prime assets. Valuations are broadly expected to be income driven, with limited room for yield compression, as rates remain stable. Investors appear selective, favouring prime, core assets; while secondary, older st...
- Alessio Chiesa
- Raffaella Tenconi
EME Macro/Strategy: macro all-in-one (27 February-5 March)
The geopolitical crisis in the Middle East has intensified over the past week, with Iran’s aerial response to the recent US-Israel aerial strikes, spreading to regional US military bases in the neighbouring countries. The sharp rise in energy prices will lift inflation in the very near term, but upside risks are mounting, as we do not see credible signals of a quick resolution within the next week. In other news, the NBP delivered a 25bps cut. February’s inflation prints were released in the Eur...
- Jakub Bronicki
- Jakub Caithaml
Budimex: built on solid ground, priced for perfection (HOLD - transfer...
We transfer coverage of Budimex (BDX) and downgrade our rating to HOLD (from Buy), with a 12M price target (PT) of PLN 853 (vs. PLN 750 previously), implying 9% upside. After two years of relatively flat results in 2024-25, we expect 2026-27E to mark a return to double-digit yoy growth in both revenues and the order backlog. We forecast a solid EBIT CAGR of 11% for 2025-28E, supported by accelerating public infrastructure spending and improving contract flow. At the same time, we believe the cur...
- Alessio Chiesa
- Raffaella Tenconi
EME Macro/Strategy: Hungary – the Tisza policy programme
On 12 April, Hungarian citizens will be called on to choose the next Prime Minister for the coming four years. The election campaign has been intense over the past year and seems to be in favour of the opposition party, Tisza. The party is counting on improving the flows of EU funds, by fighting corruption aggressively and reinstating a more predictable business environment. We warn that the implementation of institutional reforms is complex, but accelerating EU funds inflows, by 1% of GDP, from...
- Alessio Chiesa
- Atinc Ozkan
- Jonathan Lamb
- Raffaella Tenconi
WOOD Flash – EEMEA macro: early takes on the Iran conflict
Even though it is still the early hours, we think that it could be useful to frame the likely channels into our region. Direct and indirect macro impacts from the Iran conflict and the Strait of Hormuz disruption risk are transmitted primarily through: i) a higher oil price; and ii) a war-risk “delivered cost” wedge (insurance, freight, delays). Brent has jumped by USD 5/bbl to USD 75/bbl, which would, if sustained throughout the whole year, shift our inflation forecasts to our “high energy cost...
- Jakub Caithaml
WOOD Flash – Shopper Park Plus: 2025 EBITDA c.3% and 7% below our and ...
SPP's 2025 results are slightly weaker than the company's guidance and our expectations, driven by lower net rental income and slightly higher overhead costs, and offset only partly by lower income tax. We estimate the 2025 FFO at EUR 12.4m, which was fully consumed by the maintenance capex invested in the portfolio during the year.
- Alessio Chiesa
- Raffaella Tenconi
EME Macro/Strategy: macro all-in-one (20-26 February)
In Poland, the monthly budget data point to a better-than-expected 2025 Budget result. On the macro side, the latest releases show brisk retail spending in January. We report on the new surveys on the appetite of Ukraine’s refugees to return home in the future, conducted by CES. In Hungary, the MPC began a cautious easing cycle with a 25bps rate cut. Türkiye’s February sentiment surveys add conviction to our view that the economy appears to be improving, with mildly intensifying inflationary sig...
- Jakub Caithaml
WOOD Flash – Duna House: 4Q25 in line, guidance implies upside for our...
In 2025, Duna House delivered record results, with Italy, Hungary and Poland all exceeding management’s initial guidance. Management expects the positive momentum to continue across its markets. The 2026E guidance implies upside for our forecasts. A year ago, the company’s long-term strategic plan targeted EBITDA from the core operations (excluding M&A) of EUR 22m by 2029E; while the current guidance suggests that this level could be reached as early as in 2026E. While Duna House continues to as...
- Jakub Caithaml
WOOD Flash – CTP: 4Q25 – both FFO and guidance trail our and the conse...
The 4Q25 results and the 2026E guidance imply around 3-4% consensus FFO downgrades for 2026E, and feature a material gap between the EPRA earnings (at EUR 336m) and the company-adjusted EPRA earnings (at EUR 405m). That said, CTP announced that it will start to capitalise the interest costs related to developments. As a result, the consensus FFO estimates are likely to be reviewed upwards instead.
- Jakub Caithaml
WOOD Flash – Graphisoft Park: 4Q25 – low LTV, high ROE
In 2025, Graphisoft Park delivered stable FFO, despite earlier concerns about headwinds. Higher rental income, alongside negative revaluations, lifted the yield on the standing properties to almost 9% at YE25. A successful land sale reduced the net LTV to 22%. Despite the low leverage, the company generated a 9% FFO ROE. This ranks it among the least levered listed real estate companies in Europe, while among the most profitable ones, at the same time.
- Alessio Chiesa
- Raffaella Tenconi
EME Macro/Strategy: macro all-in-one (13-19 February)
The latest batch of data from Türkiye points to improving economic momentum, on the margin, with mild inflationary trends. We do not believe this is enough to stop the easing cycle by the CBT, but it does lend support to its cautious stance. In Poland, the flash data for January were a touch underwhelming, but mostly, in our view, because of the cold weather and bonus payments coming in earlier than usual this season. Consumer confidence improved in February, back to the levels seen last June an...
- Jakub Caithaml
- Peter Palovic
DO & CO: new kitchens, same discipline (stays BUY)
We reiterate our BUY on DO & CO and set our new 12M price target (PT) at EUR 250/share. Since our upgrade in November 2025, the stock is up 11%, and we still see further upside, as 3Q FY26 has confirmed that the investment case is about disciplined growth, with strong cash generation. Over 9M FY26, DO & CO participated in 76 tenders and won 52%, underlining its continued commercial momentum across its core aviation catering footprint. The FCFF generation over 9M FY26 surprised positively, coming...
- Alessio Chiesa
- Raffaella Tenconi
EME Macro/Strategy: macro all-in-one (6-12 February)
The January inflation releases in Poland, Hungary and Greece pointed to easing goods prices dynamics, while services inflation showed limited signs of further moderation. In Türkiye, the CBT revised up its end-year inflation forecast, widening the gap relative to the binding interim target and thereby signalling a more hawkish policy stance in the coming months. In Romania, the 4Q GDP confirmed a technical recession, despite the ameliorating IP data. Lastly, the NBG kept the policy rate unchange...
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