reports
- Alessio Chiesa
- Raffaella Tenconi
EME Macro/Strategy: macro all-in-one (30 January-5 February)
Last week, monetary policy decisions were announced by the ECB, the CNB and the NBP, with all opting to keep the rates unchanged. January’s inflation prints were released across the Eurozone, Czechia and Türkiye, highlighting persisting pressures from food inflation. In Hungary, the government hinted at extending the margin caps beyond February, while the gas price cap was extended by another year in Romania. CIS plus inflation showed a mixed picture in January; Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan saw fur...
- Alessio Chiesa
- Raffaella Tenconi
EME Macro/Strategy: macro all-in-one (24-29 January)
January’s sentiment indices showed a sizeable improvement in the Euro area and hiring appetite improved across countries. In Poland, the EU Commission approved the EUR 43bn loan under the SAFE programme. January’s sentiment surveys revealed accelerating economic momentum. In the Czech Republic, the flash estimate for 4Q was lower than expected, on falling investment. In Hungary, GDP growth was modest, but positive, at 0.2% qoq in 4Q. In Türkiye, the CBT is keeping its cautious easing stance; the...
- Alessio Chiesa
- Raffaella Tenconi
WOOD Flash – Kazakhstan macro: untangling oil and policy tightening ri...
After the preliminary growth estimate of 6.5% in 2025E, Kazakhstan is set to transition in 2026E towards a slower pace of growth, more consistent with the macroeconomic fundamentals. At its latest meeting, the NBK explicitly signalled little appetite to cut the policy rate until at least end-1H26E, citing the elevated uncertainty around the resumption of the regulated tariff increases in the spring, the inflationary impact of the tax reforms (including the VAT hike, effective from January), and ...
- Alessio Chiesa
- Raffaella Tenconi
WOOD Flash - Romania macro: revisiting the implied credit risk
Over the past week, three separate positive developments have materialised in Romania: the EUR 16.8bn SAFE loan with the European Commission (EC) was approved; the preliminary estimate of the 2025 budget deficit points to a much smaller shortfall than feared; and the government reached an agreement for the public administration consolidation strategy. While none of these developments is surprising in isolation, their confirmation improves the near-term assessment of Romania’s sovereign credit ri...
- Jakub Bronicki
- Jakub Caithaml
Shopper Park Plus: shopping for yield (HOLD – initiation of coverage)
We initiate coverage of Shopper Park Plus (SPP) with a HOLD and a 12M price target (PT) of EUR 12.0/share. SPP owns a c.EUR 425m portfolio of Tesco-anchored, mostly big-box retail assets in Hungary, Slovakia and the Czech Republic. Most of the properties were developed by Tesco and are located on the edges of regional towns. The portfolio is booked at a 7.0% EPRA net initial yield (NIY). With a net LTV of 43% and a c.5% all-in cost of debt, we expect SPP to achieve c.EUR 13m of FFO I in 2025E, a...
- Alessio Chiesa
- Raffaella Tenconi
EME Macro/Strategy: macro all-in-one (9-15 January)
The past week has reinforced a picture of uneven, but broadly resilient macro dynamics across our region. Disinflation continues to make gradual progress, opening the door to selected easing later in the year. Housing markets are re-accelerating in several CEE economies. Growth signals remain mixed: consumer activity is improving in core Europe, while industrial momentum is uneven. Finally, activity remained strong in Türkiye, and clearly accelerated in Kazakhstan, in the last quarter of last ye...
- Jakub Caithaml
WOOD Flash – Wizz Air: may grow capacity by c.20% in FY27E
In an interview with Bloomberg, Wizz Air’s CEO, Jozsef Varadi, has suggested that the airline may grow faster than the latest guidance implied, driven by the unparking of grounded aircraft and new aircraft deliveries. Bloomberg has reported that the CEO was suggesting that the airline may grow capacity by around 20% in FY26E yoy. We believe this is a misinterpretation of what the CEO meant, as it would require an unrealistic acceleration of capacity growth in the January-March period. We have re...
- Alessio Chiesa
- Raffaella Tenconi
WOOD Flash – Poland macro: rates unchanged, and some positive news
The Monetary Council kept the reference rate unchanged, at 4.00%, coherent with the cautious tone introduced by NBP President Glapinski last month. The press statement released by the MPC refrained from offering explicit forward guidance. In the preliminary reading, inflation slipped below the 2.5% target in December 2025, to 2.4%, and the forward-looking pricing surveys, as well as food inflation, point to a further softening in the near term. On a positive note, some very early signs of a posi...
- Alessio Chiesa
- Raffaella Tenconi
WOOD Flash – Hungary macro: CPI release supports easing ahead
On Monday (12 January), MNB Governor Varga struck a balanced, but mildly dovish tone in his comments to the press. He emphasised that the future path of interest rates remains fully data-dependent, with the December 2025 CPI release described as “decisive” for near-term assessments. He also stressed the close monitoring of the December 2025 and January 2026 inflation dynamics, and noted the potential for inflation to reach the 3% target early in 2026E in a sustainable manner, beyond simple toler...
- Alessio Chiesa
- Raffaella Tenconi
EME Macro/Strategy: macro all-in-one (1-8 January)
The preliminary readings available so far for December 2025 have come in marginally softer than we expected, thanks mainly to contained food inflation. In December, sentiment pointed to softer manufacturing output, but resilient household spending, according to the surveys released by the EU Commission. In Türkiye, the guidelines from the Central Bank signal continuity and prudence remaining key features of monetary policy again this year, which should, on the margin, lend support to the currenc...
- Jakub Caithaml
WOOD Flash – Duna House: strong 4Q KPIs; Czexit; Italy stake raised to...
Duna House (DH) has published its 4Q25 KPIs, which imply continuing strong momentum across all core markets. Both financial intermediation and real estate services posted c.30% yoy growth and reached new highs in 4Q25. The good dynamics across all markets is the key driver of our positive view on the stock, which we reiterated in our latest update, published in October 2025. In addition, DH’s cash flow continues to benefit from real estate sales. We estimate that the company’s low leverage could...
- Jakub Caithaml
WOOD Flash – Lamda Development: 3Q25 - malls and marinas steady, bond ...
Lamda’s 3Q25 results show a steady contribution from the existing malls and marinas. Gross profit generated by the Ellinikon was weak in 3Q25, with the margin likely weighed down by the Riviera Tower. Capex for the Ellinikon projects slightly exceeded EUR 100m in 3Q25, with a further material acceleration expected in 4Q25E, according to the guidance. The recent EUR 500m bond placement (3.8% yield) and the ION land sale (expected to close in 2026E) should provide a meaningful boost to liquidity. ...
- Alessio Chiesa
- Raffaella Tenconi
EME Macro/Strategy: macro all-in-one (5-11 December)
This is our last weekly for 2025; we will resume publication in the first week of 2026. In Türkiye, the central bank reduced the policy rate by 150bps and kept its prudent guidance. Inflation slowed sharply in November in Hungary and the Czech Republic. In Uzbekistan, interest rates were kept unchanged, at 14.00%.
- Jakub Caithaml
- Peter Palovic
WOOD Flash – Pegasus Airlines: signs an agreement to acquire Czech Air...
Pegasus has agreed to acquire Czech Airlines and its subsidiary, Smartwings, for EUR 154m (full equity). Subject to regulatory approval, the transaction could mark a new phase in Pegasus’s development as a group, with EU-domiciled airlines, offering a strategic foothold in Prague and, more broadly, across Europe. With over EUR 1.5bn in liquidity at end-September, the purchase price is manageable, while the deal provides access to an EU carrier generating around one-third of Pegasus’s revenues, a...
- Alessio Chiesa
- Raffaella Tenconi
EME Macro/Strategy: macro all-in-one (28 November-4 December)
Retail spending growth was steady or up in October in most EU countries. However, in Romania, the household spending contraction deepened, in line with what should be expected, given the worsening real wage growth and low savings. In Hungary, industrial output contracted again in October. Turkish GDP remained resilient in 3Q, supporting our forecast for the year, at 3.5% or above.
- Jakub Caithaml
- Peter Palovic
CTP: great story, fairly valued (downgraded to HOLD)
We continue to see CTP as one of the best stories in European real estate. A simple, focused investment case, a quality portfolio, value-accretive growth, well-managed. CTP builds at a c.10% yield on cost, while it raises debt at an all-in cost of c.4%, and it books its portfolio on a 5-6% net initial yield. The revaluation gains on developments allow almost all of the construction capex to be debt-funded. The spread between the development yield and the cost of debt is wide, and would remain at...
- Alessio Chiesa
- Raffaella Tenconi
EME Macro/Strategy: the years ahead – 2026-27E
We present our new projections for the coming two years: the outlook is very positive overall, but packed with economic and political challenges. We have revised down our inflation projections, to reflect lower global energy prices, and policy intervention to reduce tariffs in several countries. Labour markets are also less inflationary than before, as it appears that Central Banks are leaning towards being more dovish than in the past two years. GDP growth is rebounding across Europe, although ...
- Alessio Chiesa
- Raffaella Tenconi
EME Macro/Strategy: dividends in EMEA – yield hunting after markets ha...
The macro backdrop entering 2026E remains broadly supportive for high-dividend strategies across Emerging Europe and the frontier markets, but the opportunity set has clearly narrowed. After a year of sharp repricing across the WOOD universe, the high dividend conditions of 2024-25 have largely disappeared, as a result of many sectors rerating materially. As a result, high-dividend exposure is no longer a broad regional trade: the most compelling opportunities are now concentrated. However, the ...
MOL MOL NYRT
HTO HELLENIC TELECOMMUNICATIONS ORGANIZATION SA
OMV OMV AG
PKO PKO BANK POLSKI S.A.
KOMB KOMERCNI BANKA A.S.
BHW BANK HANDLOWY W WARSZAWIE S.A.
BDX BUDIMEX S.A.
MTELEKOM MAGYAR TELEKOM TELECOMMUNICATIONS
KTY GRUPA KETY SA
DOM DOM DEVELOPMENT SA
AEGN AEGEAN AIRLINES SA
RBW RAINBOW TOURS S.A.
LVC LIVECHAT SOFTWARE SA
TBCB TBC BANK JOINT STOCK CO
TUPRS TURKIYE PETROL RAFINERILERI A.S.
GSPARK GRAPHISOFT PARK SE
GPW WARSAW STOCK EXCHANGE
ALR ALIOR BANK SA
OTOEL AUTOHELLAS S.A.
MONET MONETA MONEY BANK AS
H4L1 HALYK SAVINGS BANK OF KAZAKHSTAN GDR
SNP PETROM S.A.
19XX NEPI ROCKCASTLE PLC
SFG SPHERA FRANCHISE GROUP SA
NLBR NLB GROUP
KAP NATIONAL ATOMIC COMPANY KAZATOMPROM
TEN TEN SQUARE GAMES
KSPI KASPI KZ
HUGE HUUUGE
IGN1L IGNITIS GRUPE
ELPE HELLENIQ ENERGY
BOROUGE BOROUGE
H2O HIDROELECTRICA S.A.
MUR2 MURAPOL SA
TRESTATES TRADE ESTATES REIC SA
BOCHGR BANK OF CYPRUS
- Jakub Caithaml
WOOD Flash – Duna House: 3Q25 – strong summer; FY guidance upgraded; e...
Duna House’s 3Q25 showed continuing strong results across the board, beating our estimates by c.15% on the EBITDA level. The strong results and positive outlook have led management to lift its earnings guidance for the year. Additionally, the company has announced that it is entering Spain, via the acquisition of a local real estate brokerage network. While the deal is small, Spain presents a vast opportunity for Duna House, which could either grow there organically, or boost its presence via fu...
- Jakub Bronicki
- Jakub Caithaml
Develia: lighten the load, lift the pace (BUY - initiation of coverage...
We initiate coverage of Develia with a BUY and a price target (PT) of PLN 9.9. Develia is one of Poland’s largest listed residential developers, operating in major urban markets and selling over 3k apartments per year. Following the divestment of its commercial assets, the company has a strong balance sheet (0.7x ND/EBITDA in 3Q25), enabling both dividend payments (7.4-9.3% dividend yields expected in 2025-27E) and further expansion, with a target of 4.5k apartment sales in 2028E through a combi...
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