reports
- Alessio Chiesa
- Raffaella Tenconi
WOOD Flash – Eurozone macro: some thoughts on the EU-US agreement
We interpret the recent EU-US agreement as a strategic compromise by the EU, which is suboptimal, but is probably the least damaging, among a narrow set of poor alternatives. Confronted with few viable options, the EU appears to have chosen a swift resolution to avoid escalation, whether on tariffs or the broader geopolitical front. The specific references of the EU Commissioners to Ukraine, on 28 July, highlight that the situation there had some sort of direct or indirect impact in setting up t...
- Alessio Chiesa
- Raffaella Tenconi
EME Macro/Strategy: macro all-in-one (21-27 July)
The early-release July sentiment data brought some positive news. Consumers remain concerned about inflation, but are also turning more constructive on the outlook, at a time when they have ample savings buffers. Business confidence, in contrast, moderated in July. Separately, the EU and the US reached an agreement for a 15% tariff rate on most goods while, according to press reports, negotiations between the US and China will be extended by a further three months. In Türkiye, the CBT restarted ...
- Jakub Caithaml
- Peter Palovic
Wizz Air: slower growth could help medium-term margins (stays BUY)
Following the recalibration of Wizz Air’s strategy, we have tried to capture some of the changes ahead, in our revised figures. The pivot towards slower growth and refocusing on CEE could support margins over the medium term. The near-term dynamics remain challenging, however. Wizz is still likely to grow 15-20% this winter, which, given seasonally-low demand, may pressure margins. The accelerated return of current engine option (ceo) aircraft to the lessors over the next two years could also el...
- Jakub Caithaml
WOOD Flash - Wizz Air: 1QF26 results - another miss, but focus on a pl...
Wizz Air’s 1QF26 figures were a slight miss to our forecasts, and a more material one to consensus. The emphasis, this time around, seems mainly on the significant planned refocusing of the business. On top of the recently-announced exit from Abu Dhabi, Wizz Air plans to slow its expansion materially, and is planning to reduce its capacity (ASK) growth rate to around 10-12% in the medium term, from roughly mid-2026E onwards. It also plans to refocus the business towards CEE, unpark all of the gr...
- Jakub Caithaml
- Peter Palovic
Aegean Airlines: after a strong 1Q, earnings momentum may slow (downgr...
Since upgrading Aegean to a BUY in November last year, the stock has generated a total return of 49%, outperforming its European airline peers by 10%, and the Athens Stock Exchange by 5% over the period. We set our new 12M PT at EUR 14.0/share and downgrade Aegean to HOLD, as we believe the near-term earnings (2Q-3Q25E) could trail last year’s results slightly. After a very strong 1Q25, weaker near-term results could translate into the stock losing some momentum in the coming months. That said, ...
- Jakub Caithaml
WOOD Flash - EMEA Airlines: 2Q25 traffic - Easter good, conflict bad
Calendar 2Q25 started off well for the sector, benefitting from the Easter effect and low fuel prices, but many airlines experienced disruptions to their networks later in the quarter, following Israel’s attack on Iran. Demand for flying seems broadly resilient so far, with fares helped by limited capacity growth in Europe, due to supply constraints. As we move into the peak season, Air Traffic Control (ATC) remains a bottleneck, especially as parts of the European network remain closed to traff...
- Alessio Chiesa
- Raffaella Tenconi
EME Macro/Strategy: macro all-in-one (14-20 July)
Last week, the EU Commission released the first formal proposal for the 2028-2034 EU budget cycle, which was met with mixed reactions from the Member States. A mix of consumer and producer price data were released for the Eurozone, Czechia and Poland, showing upsides from food inflation. In Romania, the government survived the vote of no confidence. In Hungary, the government announced support measures for employers, ahead of the planned 40% increase in the minimum wage over 2025-27. We also dis...
- Alessio Chiesa
- Raffaella Tenconi
WOOD Flash – EU macro: Commission presents the new budget
The EU Commission’s proposed magnitude and structure of the new EU Budget cycle for 2028/2034 strikes a balance between securing a minimum size to meet all the Union’s urgent priorities, while respecting the objective political limits that prevent the EU from scaling up its financial firepower due to strong resistance to major new EU funding avenues. The proposal relative to the EU’s gross national income is at the smaller end of what we had expected; however, given that the current RRF programm...
- Alessio Chiesa
- Raffaella Tenconi
WOOD Flash – Ukraine macro: notes on the economy and the reconstructio...
In this flash note, we pull together what we have learned from our conversation with the NBU’s Vice Governor Nikolaychuk and his team, the NBU’s ninth research conference, and the Ukraine Recovery Conference held in Rome last week. In our view, the institutional mechanism for the reconstruction of Ukraine is beginning to reach critical mass, even though peace remains elusive. Full entry to the EU is a long path and, at the moment, Hungary is blocking the beginning of the negotiations for the fir...
- Alessio Chiesa
- Raffaella Tenconi
EME Macro/Strategy: macro all-in-one (7-13 July)
The outlook for international trade has entered a renewed phase of uncertainty, as President Trump announced a 30% tariff rate for EU goods from 1 August. The new Romanian government will face a vote of no confidence this week, which poses no threat to the stability of the new cabinet, according to the leader of PSD. In the Czech Republic, the data continue to show a brisk economic recovery, despite the auto sector remaining in the doldrums. In Poland, PM Tusk should unveil the cabinet changes t...
- Alessio Chiesa
- Raffaella Tenconi
EME Macro/Strategy: macro all-in-one (30 June-6 July)
This week’s highlights include: continued monetary policy recalibration across CEE; renewed fiscal tightening in Romania; and mixed signals on growth and inflation in the region and beyond. In Poland, the MPC delivered another rate cut, while flagging a more cautious path ahead. Hungary’s industrial sector remains under pressure, with political implications taking shape. In the US, fiscal stimulus and resilient GDP data stand against weakening consumer sentiment. Romania confirmed a significant ...
- Alessio Chiesa
- Raffaella Tenconi
EME Macro/Strategy: inflation – short- and medium-term forecasts
In this publication, we present our updated inflation outlook, extending into the medium term, taking stock of the key drivers so far and highlighting the structural trends that are likely to shape inflation dynamics in the years ahead. Over the medium term, inflation will face upward pressure from rapidly increasing defence spending, on top of the ongoing themes, such as digitalisation, decarbonisation, and deglobalisation. As these shifts take hold, we expect inflation in CEE to continue to ex...
- Alessio Chiesa
- Raffaella Tenconi
WOOD Flash – Romania macro: discussing a new fiscal package with the E...
As per media articles yesterday (2 July), the Romanian government is now discussing a new set of fiscal measures with the European Commission. Below, we summarise the main points reported by the local media and compare them with the initial coalition plan, which was unveiled last week. The measures are significant in both size and structure, and they mark a clear step-up in the government’s effort to address the persistent budget gap and align with the EU’s deficit targets. So, if implemented fu...
- Alessio Chiesa
- Raffaella Tenconi
EME Macro/Strategy – Poland: bigger, happier but also more divided
In this report, we look at the short- and long-term outlooks for Poland. GDP growth prospects for 2025/26E are robust, thanks to support from EU funds, the nascent EU industrial recovery and improved balance sheets for households. Consumption growth is accelerating, in our view, as the period of strong savings accumulation is coming to an end. We expect investment growth at double-digit rates in 2025/26E, which reflects, to a large extent, the benefits of EU funds, as well as alleviating a recur...
- Alessio Chiesa
- Raffaella Tenconi
EME Macro/Strategy: macro all-in-one (23-29 June)
Last week’s NATO summit, in the Netherlands, concluded with a formal commitment to raise defence spending to 5% of GDP by 2035E, with a progress review set for 2029E. In the Czech Republic and Hungary, the central banks kept rates on hold but struck a hawkish tone, pointing to upside risks to inflation. In Romania, the new coalition government, led by PNL’s Ilie Bolojan as Prime Minister, was sworn in and rolled out its first draft fiscal plan, which includes tax hikes and tighter spending. Mean...
- Jakub Bronicki
- Jakub Caithaml
Murapol Group: running to stand still (HOLD – initiation of coverage)
We initiate coverage of Murapol Group with a HOLD rating and price target (PT) of PLN 44.0. Murapol is a Polish housing developer focused on affordable, mass-market apartments, with a presence in both large and small cities. Its high gross profit margin, industry-leading ROE (>40%) and high dividend yield (12.6%) look appealing, and justify a high premium to book value, in our view. That said, high interest rates and the end of the mortgage subsidy programme have hit demand for smaller apartment...
- Jakub Bronicki
- Jakub Caithaml
Dom Development: fairly valued, after a rally (downgraded to HOLD)
After a fantastic run, we are downgrading Dom Development (Dom) to HOLD on valuation grounds, and set our new 12M PT at PLN 251/share. With its strong balance sheet and consistent dividend payouts, Dom has been one of the best performers on the Warsaw Stock Exchange (WSE), generating a c.26% total average annual return over the past ten years. We continue to see it as the leading home builder in Poland, and one of the safest long-term ways to play the sector, and believe it should remain a portf...
- Alessio Chiesa
- Raffaella Tenconi
EME Macro/Strategy: macro all-in-one (16-22 June)
Last week, the key events included a dovish tilt from Türkiye’s Central Bank, amid easing inflation; a more hawkish Fed forecasts outlook, while holding rates; and Romania’s push for fiscal reform, with a new PM nominee. The Central Banks in Georgia and Uzbekistan kept the rates unchanged, but struck cautious and hawkish tones, respectively, while Kazakhstan’s growth remained strong, despite softer industrial momentum. Political tensions rose in Hungary over EU rights, and Poland announced a lim...
- Jakub Caithaml
- Peter Palovic
DO & CO: flying with flavour (stays BUY)
We maintain our BUY on DO & CO and set our new 12M price target (PT) at EUR 205/share. Despite the 22% share price rally since our initiation in April 2025, we continue to view DO & CO as a cheap, high-quality name. Following its robust 4Q FY25 results – exceeding our expectations – and the signing of 17 new contracts with airlines during FY25, we have made slight adjustments to our model. We estimate that the new airline contracts could generate EUR 40-50m in FY26E revenues (part of which comes...
- Alessio Chiesa
- Raffaella Tenconi
EME Macro/Strategy: macro all-in-one (9-15 June)
In Poland, PM Tusk won the vote of confidence, as expected, and has restarted the efforts on the judicial, energy and housing policies. Inflation moderated further in May, adding cautious optimism that inflation will return to the NBP’s target soon. Inflation surprised to the upside in Romania and Hungary last month, due primarily to reaccelerating food inflation and sticky demand pressures. In Türkiye, we saw further positive evidence on the industrial sector recovery and stabilising TRY pressu...
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