reports
- Alessio Chiesa
- Raffaella Tenconi
EME Macro/Strategy: macro all-in-one (2-8 June)
The result of the Polish Presidential election (announced on 2 June), led Prime Minister Tusk to call for a vote of confidence, which will take place on 11 June, which we expect to pass. The NBP kept the policy rate unchanged, as expected, but the recent announcement of a drop in the regulated price of gas improves the inflation outlook and increases the odds of an additional 100bps of easing this year. The details of the fiscal adjustment in Romania should be released this week; we see downside...
- Jakub Caithaml
WOOD Flash – Lamda Development: 1Q25 results – malls doing well, valua...
In 1Q25, Lamda delivered fairly contained opex, while the malls’ NOI continues to grow nicely, on track to meet or slightly exceed our 2025E forecast. However, the capex must accelerate sharply from the current c.EUR 80m quarterly run-rate, if Lamda is to meet even the extended Phase 1 timelines, in our view. Management expects a meaningful capex step-up in 2Q25E, with further growth in 2H25E.
- Jakub Caithaml
WOOD Flash – GTC: 1Q25 – some notes, post the results
Liquidity is paramount. The dividends should have been paused earlier, but better late than never. Management's clearly stated focus on prioritising the addressing of maturities is encouraging. All rides on a successful refinancing and or sizeable disposals, which could remove the immediate tail risk. That said, even then, the equity looks fully valued, unless the post-deal FFO proves to be markedly stronger than the current trajectory suggests.
- Alessio Chiesa
- Raffaella Tenconi
EME Macro/Strategy: CIS plus – a good growth juncture, amid global pol...
By mid-2025, the CIS+ region is confronting a changing global backdrop, shaped by the US tariffs, the hope of a Ukraine deal, and weaker oil prices. While direct exposure to US trade remains limited, indirect spillovers through remittances, energy markets, and capital flows are increasingly relevant for the region. This report assesses how these dynamics – together with each country's domestic trends – are altering the macro landscape across Georgia, Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan. We also introduce ...
- Alessio Chiesa
- Raffaella Tenconi
EME Macro/Strategy: macro all-in-one (19-25 May)
Uncertainty persists over the size of the tariffs on European goods to the US. If we assume that the EU will find an agreement with the US at a tariff rate below the current high proposal of 50%, the economic data have, on the margin, signalled upside risks for our current central scenario. The early sentiment surveys for Poland for May provide some encouraging signals of accelerating manufacturing investment sentiment, but investment elsewhere and confidence, on average, have fallen this month....
- Jakub Caithaml
- Maria Mickiewicz
Budimex: growth acceleration on the horizon (upgraded to BUY)
We are upgrading Budimex (BDX) to BUY, from Hold. Our new 12M price target (PT) of PLN 750 (vs. PLN 730 previously) offers 20% potential upside. Having reduced our 2025E forecasts by several percents, we highlight the problem of the delays seen in the market in 2024, rather than the long-term investment pipeline, which remains strong. This is also supported by the announced acceleration in military investments. After taking a pause this year (limited single-digit growth), we expect 2026-27E to m...
- Alessio Chiesa
- Raffaella Tenconi
EME Macro/Strategy: macro all-in-one (12-18 May)
The results from the Presidential elections in Romania indicates a win for pro-EU candidate, Nicușor Dan, while Rafał Trzaskowski, also a pro-EU candidate, is ahead in Poland after the first round. The remaining 1Q25 real GDP releases across CEE showed stagnation in Romania, while Poland maintained solid growth. The NBR kept its policy rate unchanged on the eve of the election, but tightened liquidity conditions. In Hungary, budget execution worsened over the first four months of the year, promp...
- Jakub Caithaml
WOOD Flash – Graphisoft Park: 1Q25 – recurring income higher yoy, and ...
Graphisoft Park has booked a steady stream of recurring income, with the FFO at around EUR 4m in 1Q25, double-digit growth yoy and ahead of our estimate. The bottom line was affected negatively by a small revaluation loss (EUR 7m, or c.3% of the value of the portfolio). We are not very troubled by the effect on the book value, but we do share concerns regarding the risk premium that investors may apply for Hungarian assets, the low investment liquidity (suggesting a lack of buyers), and the heav...
- Alessio Chiesa
- Raffaella Tenconi
EME Macro/Strategy: macro all-in-one (5-11 May)
Last week, the domestic tensions following the first round of the Romanian presidential elections heightened, and the polls are showing that the second round will remain a tight race, with Simion losing some support, but maintaining the lead. Tensions also remain high in Türkiye, and weekly interest rates on deposits and loans maintain their upward trajectory. Monetary Councils convened in CEE, with the CNB cutting by 25bps and the NBP delivering a 50bps cut, following President Glapinski’s dovi...
- Alessio Chiesa
- Raffaella Tenconi
WOOD Flash – Romania macro: reflections on the resignation of PM Ciola...
The first round of the presidential elections, held over the weekend, resulted in AUR leader George Simion and Bucharest Mayor Nicușor Dan advancing to the runoff. As a result of the defeat of the PSD-supported candidate, for the second time, Prime Minister Ciolacu has decided to resign and the party will not endorse anyone in the second round. The budget execution in the first three months of the year and the high costs of the pension reform introduced last year imply that either the government...
- Alessio Chiesa
- Raffaella Tenconi
EME Macro/Strategy: macro all-in-one (28 April-4 May)
The 1Q25 real GDP data were released across the US and the EU last week, and already reveal the impact of tariffs in the US, while the European data held up surprisingly well. This adds to the constructive message from April’s surveys, showing resilience in industry so far. However, early signs of souring sentiment in other sectors, and for consumers, indicate caution against becoming overly optimistic. Press reports suggest that the EU will kickstart trade negotiations with the Trump Administra...
- Alessio Chiesa
- Raffaella Tenconi
EME Macro/Strategy: macro all-in-one (21-27 April)
The good news first: the detailed batch of business surveys available for Poland, Hungary and the Czech Republic for April, which captures the US tariff announcements, provide evidence of resilience (but not full immunity, of course) in the industrial sector. In Poland, nominal wage growth cooled, and real retail sales fell, boosting the case of a May rate cut further. In Türkiye, the top leadership at the CBT reiterated the hawkish stance, following the surprise rate hike earlier in the month. ...
- Alessio Chiesa
- Raffaella Tenconi
WOOD Flash – Poland macro: April data paint an encouraging picture
We delve into the details of the business surveys released by the Polish statistical office (GUS) for April, to understand the current state of three key sectors of the economy: manufacturing, construction and services. The high cost of labour and softening demand are the top two factors that are restraining production across business segments; however, what stands out as a trend is that companies are reporting growing competitive pressures. Companies are not reporting a worsening of their finan...
- Jakub Caithaml
- Peter Palovic
DO & CO: the art of the meal (BUY - initiation of coverage)
We initiate coverage of DO & CO with a BUY and a 12M price target (PT) of EUR 167/share. DO & CO is a high-end catering company, serving mainly airlines and international sports events. After the COVID-19 pandemic, DO & CO has delivered exceptional earnings growth, with a 102% EPS CAGR from FY22 to FY25E, driven by the rebound in global air travel and major international events. Leveraging on the contracts signed during the pandemic, improved kitchen utilisation and economies of scale, we foreca...
- Jakub Caithaml
WOOD Flash – EMEA airlines: 1Q25 traffic; demand concerns vs. cheaper ...
Exposed to the strength of consumer demand and with high operating leverage, European airlines have been under pressure lately (albeit less so than their US peers), on concerns about the economy, in the face of the escalating trade conflict. While, at c.4%, the 2025E market capacity growth is muted, around half of last year’s pace, it could still prove too fast, if the Eurozone GDP remains stagnant this year. Within the next 1-2M, we should start to get better visibility on the crucial summer RA...
- Alessio Chiesa
- Raffaella Tenconi
EME Macro/Strategy: macro all-in-one (7-13 April)
Last week, the suspension of the new US tariffs for 90 days provided limited relief, but insufficient, in our view, to avert GDP contraction risks in the US in 1Q, and possibly 2Q. Potential positive developments hinge on further decisions regarding the semiconductor tariffs. Central Banks’ actions reflected persistent inflation concerns, amidst heightened global uncertainties. The NBK maintained the policy rate at 16.5%, and the NBR also held its policy rate steady, at 6.50%. Greece showed enco...
- Alessio Chiesa
- Raffaella Tenconi
EME Macro/Strategy: tariff impact – a preliminary assessment
The US new reciprocal tariff strategy delivered a larger-than-expected boost to the tariff barriers, escalating the risk of a US recession in the coming quarters. The impact on the EU is significant, but not outside the scenarios that the Commission has been anticipating. The EU Commission is deploying countermeasures beyond the defence ramp up; for example, Vice President Fitto’s proposal to loosen the conditions for cohesion funds disbursements. The impact on the EU will be shaped by the speed...
- Alessio Chiesa
- Raffaella Tenconi
EME Macro/Strategy: macro all-in-one (24-30 March)
The EU Commission business surveys for March showed that the industrial sector in the EU is on the mend, with expected orders recovering for a third month in a row in the Eurozone and CEE. Consumer confidence, instead, is signalling, once again, that uncertainty is affecting consumers, and inflation expectations continue to rise in the majority of EU countries. Central Banks’ decisions were in line with expectations. The Monetary Council in the Czech Republic delivered a hawkish hold; and, in Hu...
- Alessio Chiesa
- Raffaella Tenconi
EME Macro/Strategy: macro all-in-one (17-23 March)
Last week, the detention of Istanbul mayor İmamoğlu triggered significant nervousness locally, forcing the Central Bank to tighten monetary policy. In the Czech Republic, March business sentiment reinforced the positive message of the previous month and, most likely, is edging the MPC towards stopping the easing cycle. In Hungary, the state audit office investigated the Foundation set up by the MNB a decade ago for inadequate financial administration. In Poland, February’s hard data were soft, b...
- Alessio Chiesa
- Raffaella Tenconi
WOOD Flash – Türkiye macro: putting the CBRT’s emergency rate hike int...
The TCMB held an unscheduled MPC meeting yesterday (20 March), raising the ceiling of the policy rate corridor (the overnight lending rate) by 200bps, to 46%, undoing the March rate cut. We read this decision positively, as Governor Fatih Karahan remains true to the efforts of improving the inflation outlook and streamlining monetary policy. We see the magnitude of the tightening as sufficient to stabilise the TRY demand domestically, provided the political backdrop also stabilises gradually in ...
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