reports
- Håkon Astrup
SpareBank 1 Helgeland (Hold, TP: NOK167.00) - Softer margin, but lower...
Helped by still-solid core revenues, cost reduction YOY and moderate loan losses, HELG reported a Q1 ROE of 12.3%, despite some margin pressure. With solid earnings generation, the bank increased its CET1 ratio by ~20bp to 18.0% and still guides for a 0.8%-point benefit from the implementation of Basel IV, boding well for meaningful distributions. We have lowered our 2026–2027e EPS by 0–1%, That said, we reiterate our target price of NOK167. With the stock trading at a 2026e P/E of ~12.4x, we co...
- Håkon Astrup
SpareBank 1 Østlandet (Hold, TP: NOK168.00) - Improving asset quality
Supported by continued lending growth, low loan losses and good fee income growth, the Q1 ROE was 14.1%, despite somewhat elevated costs and slightly weaker NII. The capital position remains strong, with an end-Q1 CET1 ratio of 17.1% that should be further supported by upcoming regulatory changes. We have lowered our 2026–2027e EPS by ~1–2%, but reiterate our HOLD and NOK168 target price.
- Håkon Astrup
Rogaland Sparebank (Hold, TP: NOK137.00) - Stronger capital tailwind o...
Boosted by the distribution of customer dividends, an uptick in NII, even with two fewer interest days QOQ, and moderate loan losses, the Q1 ROE was 13.2%, despite somewhat softer fee income. The bank adjusted its guided positive impact from the implementation of Basel IV to 3.0%-points (previously 2.6%-points). We have raised our 2026–2027e EPS by ~6%, on higher NII, and our target price to NOK137 (130). At a 2026e P/E of ~12.0x, we continue to find a better risk/reward elsewhere in the sector,...
- Håkon Astrup
SpareBank 1 Sør-Norge (Hold, TP: NOK180.00) - Strong core revenues
Helped by strong core revenues and limited loan losses, the Q1 ROE was 13.5%, despite some underlying cost inflation and merger-related costs. Backed by solid earnings generation, the CET1 ratio rose ~30bp QOQ to 18.3%, with an ample buffer to the ~17.6% requirement, boding well for meaningful distributions over our forecast horizon. We have raised our 2026–2027e EPS by 2–3% on higher NII and fee income, and our target price to NOK180 (170), but continue to find the valuation fair and reiterate ...
- Håkon Astrup
Sparebank 1 SMN (Buy, TP: NOK202.00) - Solid core revenue growth
Q1 PTP was NOK1,269m, 6% lower YOY, as stronger ‘real NII’ and fees were offset by soft trading and higher opex. On a QOQ basis, two fewer interest days, and somewhat softer growth, led to a ‘real NII’ decline. With a CET1 ratio of 18.1%, we see continued capital headroom, supportive of solid distributions. We have trimmed our 2026–2027e EPS by ~1% on the NII trend, but reiterate our BUY and NOK202 target price.
- Håkon Astrup
Storebrand (Buy, TP: NOK149.00) - Insurance repricing on track
Q1 PTP before amortisation was NOK1,167m, up 8% YOY, driven by strong growth in Banking and Insurance. While high sales activity had a negative impact on the insurance cost ratio, the combined ratio continued to improve through premium growth of 20% YOY, leaving Storebrand close to the 90–92% target for 2025. We have made fairly limited EPS revisions for 2026–2027e, and reiterate our BUY and NOK149 target price.
- Håkon Astrup
Sampo Oyj (Buy, TP: EUR10.20) - Strong underwriting momentum
Although Q1 PTP declined by 19% YOY to EUR377m, due to a lower investment result, Sampo continued to see strong underwriting momentum, with 9% YOY GWP growth (in local FX) and a 2.5%-points stronger underlying combined ratio YOY. Based on a better synergy outlook from the integration of Topdanmark, it increased its cost improvement guidance. We have raised our 2026–2027e EPS by ~1% on higher growth and ongoing underwriting improvements. We have raised our target price to EUR10.2 (9.8), and reite...
- Håkon Astrup
DNB (No_rec, TP: NOK) - Higher fees and improved capital outlook
Helped by still-solid core revenue momentum and modest loan losses, DNB reported a Q1 ROE of 15.9%. Fee income rose by ~30% YOY, driven by the inclusion of Carnegie, from investment banking and asset management services. The CET1 ratio fell by ~90bp QOQ, to 18.5%, mainly explained by the Carnegie acquisition, the ample buffer to its 16.7% supervisory expectation boding well for further generous distributions ahead. We have raised our 2026–2027e EPS by ~2%, largely explained by higher core revenu...
- Håkon Astrup
Danske Bank (Buy, TP: DKK270.00) - Generous distribution prospects
Boosted by still-solid core revenues, lower costs and marginal loan losses, Danske Bank reported a strong 13.3% ROE. Noting ~DKK10bn lower risk-weight assets, the CET1 ratio rose by ~60bp QOQ to 18.4%. We have raised our 2026–2027e net profit by 3–4% on higher NII and fee income. At a 2026e P/E of ~9.1x and with generous distribution prospects, we reiterate our BUY and have raised our target price to DKK270 (260).
- Håkon Astrup
Alm. Brand (Buy, TP: DKK17.00) - Solid underwriting momentum
Although Q1 PTP declined by 16% YOY as a result of soft investments, the underwriting trend remained solid, helped by recent price hikes and the outlook for abating claims inflation. The underlying claims ratio improved by 1.9%-points YOY, while growth in the Private lines reached 8.2% YOY, supporting the 2025 combined ratio target of 84.5%, and boding well for any new long-term targets in connection with the CMD set for November. We have raised our 2026–2027e EPS by 1–2%, and reiterate our BUY ...
- Håkon Astrup
Sparebanken Møre (Hold, TP: NOK95.00) - Higher margin pressure and cos...
With elevated margin pressure and higher costs YOY, Q1 ROE was 11.2%, despite modest loan losses. Given the composition of the lending growth, MORG increased its risk-weight assets, leading to a ~ 20bp lower CET1 ratio QOQ. That said, the bank guided for a net positive effect of ~1.5%-points from the pending implementation of Basel IV in Q2 and Q3, leaving an ample buffer to its 16.15% requirement (including P2G), boding well for solid distributions. We have lowered our 2026–2027e EPS by ~5% on ...
- Håkon Astrup
Sparebanken Vest (Buy, TP: NOK157.00) - Strong pre-merger quarter
Continued solid loan growth, high fees, and a strong trading result helped offset merger-related costs and seasonally soft NII, as SVEG reported Q1 PTP of NOK1,415m, 13% higher YOY, and a Q1 ROE of 21.3%. As capital synergies are expected to offset increased IRB risk weights in the 2 May merger, we continue to find the capital situation supportive for further distributions. We have cut our 2026–2027e EPS by ~2%, while reiterating our NOK157 target price and our BUY.
- Håkon Astrup
Gjensidige Forsikring (Hold, TP: NOK235.00) - Profitable growth ahead
On the back of repricing measures, mild winter weather, and a solid investment result, Gjensidige reported Q1 PTP of NOK1,719m, up ~60% YOY. Although we expect continued solid growth momentum on further price hikes of upwards of 19.5% in Private, the profitability focus is leading to some churn among Commercial clients. In sum, we have cut our 2026–2027e EPS by 1–2%, and reiterate our HOLD and NOK235 target price.
- Håkon Astrup
Tryg (Buy, TP: DKK185.00) - Earnings momentum still solid
Through both favourable weather and narrowing credit spreads, Q1 PTP was 48% higher YOY. Recent repricing efforts continue to take effect, as seen in a 0.3%-points improved underlying claims ratio YOY, although portfolio rebalancing weighed somewhat on growth. Supported by an outlook for abating motor claims pressure, we continue to find the investment case favourable. Having made limited EPS revisions for 2026–2027e, we reiterate our BUY and DKK185 target price.
- Håkon Astrup
Danske Bank (Buy, TP: DKK260.00) - Attractive yield prospects
Supported by still-solid core revenues and strong asset quality, we expect a Q1 ROE of 12.4%. With a DKK5.0bn buyback programme announced in December, we forecast a ~20bp QOQ CET1 ratio uptick to 18.0%, implying solid 2.0% headroom to its >16% target. Thus, we see potential for further generous capital distributions with >13% combined yields over our forecast horizon. We have trimmed our 2026–2027e EPS by ~1%. That said, the stock is trading at a 2026e P/E of ~7.2x. Thus, we find the valuation a...
- Håkon Astrup
Solid growth momentum into 2025e
Helped by benign weather with few storms, we expect solid underwriting across the Nordic P&C sector for Q1, with underlying performance further supported by earned repricing momentum and abating claims inflation. The sector is trading at an attractive average 2026e P/E of c15.2x and we see solid capital distribution prospects. We reiterate our recommendations on all our covered sector names and highlight Tryg as our top pick.
- Håkon Astrup
Storebrand (Buy, TP: NOK149.00) - Strong start to the year
Fuelled by strong AUM growth within Savings, and the effects of several rounds of insurance repricing, we forecast a Q1 PTP (before amortisation) of NOK1,166m, ~8% stronger YOY. With the new NOK1.5bn buyback underway, the company is offering an attractive payout yield of 6–7%. We believe the stock is attractively valued at a 2026e P/E of c10x, when adjusting for the excess capital to be distributed. We reiterate our BUY, and have raised our target price to NOK149 (140).
- Håkon Astrup
Protector (Buy, TP: NOK370.00) - Profitable growth set to continue
Helped by benign claims and a strong investment result, we expect Protector to report Q1 PTP of NOK753m, up 31% YOY. We see Q1e GWP ~17% higher YOY in local FX, driven by strong renewals and the French expansion, while we continue to forecast solid UK growth in connection with the upcoming 1 April renewals. We reiterate our BUY and have raised our target price to NOK370 (365).
- Håkon Astrup
Pareto Bank (Buy, TP: NOK84.00) - Set for continued strong profitabili...
Supported by still-solid core revenues and firm cost efficiency, we expect a Q1 ROE of 13.0%, despite some provisions in real estate development. With an updated CET1 requirement of 16.29% (formerly 16.7%), including P2G, we see solid dividend potential and growth capacity. We have raised our 2026–2027e EPS by ~1%, and with the stock trading at a 2026e dividend-adjusted P/E of 8.2x, we continue to find the valuation attractive. Thus, we have raised our target price to NOK84 (76) and reiterate BU...
- Håkon Astrup
Outlook for continued high rates
Although we continue to expect some margin headwind, the outlook for postponed rate cuts – leaving interest rates at continued high levels – should bode well for sector earnings, further supported by a strong profitability focus and modest loan losses. With the sector trading at an average 2026e P/E of c11.0x, and solid dividend potential, we find the valuation undemanding. We reiterate our positive sector view but highlight a larger share of HOLD recommendations than 12 months ago.
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