reports
- Håkon Astrup
Storebrand (Buy, TP: NOK125.00) - Signs of gradual improvement
Q1 PTP was up 30% YOY, largely driven by strong AUM growth and increased interest rates. The Insurance segment showed signs of improvement after several rounds of repricing in previous quarters, supporting the 2025 financial targets. Following regulatory approval and a 191% Solvency II ratio, Storebrand launched a NOK1.1bn buyback programme. We reiterate our BUY and have raised our target price to NOK125 (120) following ~4% positive EPS revisions for 2025e.
- Håkon Astrup
DNB (No_rec, TP: NOK) - Trimmed NII, but strong asset quality
Supported by improved fees from asset management, more moderate cost inflation and robust asset quality, DNB reported a strong Q1 ROE of 15.6% (>13% target). Meanwhile, driven by lower credit demand, product-mix effects and one less interest day, NII declined 2.9% QOQ. The CET1 ratio rose ~80bp QOQ to 19.0%, with the ample buffer to its 16.8% supervisory expectation boding well for further generous distributions. We have cut our 2025e EPS by ~2%, driven by lower NII.
- Håkon Astrup
Tryg (Buy, TP: DKK185.00) - Continued underlying improvement
Q1 PTP was down 15% YOY to DKK1,007m (as we and consensus expected), reflecting the harsh winter weather and a high-profile claim in Sweden. However, the underlying claims ratio extended its long run of improvements, ending 0.5%-points stronger YOY. Given the ongoing premium repricing and CMD in December, we expect focus to remain on maintaining underwriting discipline, supporting continued improvements. We have made limited changes to our 2025–2026e net profit, and reiterate our BUY and DKK185 ...
- Håkon Astrup
SpareBank 1 Helgeland (Hold, TP: NOK139.00) - Set for elevated loan lo...
With cNOK55m (58bp) of pre-announced loan losses, but prospects for solid revenue momentum, we expect a Q1 ROE of 11.0%, in line with its >11% target. With ample ~2.2%-points headroom to its capital requirement (including a 1% management buffer) at end-2023, we see scope for payout ratios of >80% over our forecast horizon. That said, with the stock trading at a 2025e P/E of ~8.7x, we continue to find a more attractive risk/reward elsewhere in the sector. We reiterate our HOLD, but have lowered o...
- Håkon Astrup
Topdanmark (Hold, TP: DKK320.00) - Weathering the storm
Despite harsh winter weather, Topdanmark reported Q1 PTP up ~1% YOY due to a strong investment result and solid underwriting. The combined ratio was 84.8%, 1.2%-points higher YOY, supported by low large claims and high run-off gains. While the underlying claims ratio was up YOY, pricing measures should continue to support improved underwriting. On somewhat increased cost control, we have raised our 2025–2026e EPS by ~1%. We reiterate our HOLD and DKK320 target price.
- Håkon Astrup
Sandnes Sparebank - Initiation of coverage - The regional challenger
With cNOK29.5bn of lending at end-2023 and a pending merger with Hjelmeland Sparebank, Sandnes Sparebank has secured a strong market position in Rogaland. Supported by positive regional sentiment, distribution of customer dividends and potential capital tailwinds from Basel IV, in addition to still-favourable sector trends, we see scope for solid earnings generation. That said, trading at a 2025e P/E of ~9.0x, we find the valuation fair and initiate coverage with a HOLD and NOK104 target price.
- Håkon Astrup
Danske Bank (Buy, TP: DKK237.00) - Resilient NII prospects
Supported by solid core revenues and low loan losses, we expect a Q1 ROE of 13.2% (results due at 07:30 CET on 3 May). Given the DKK5.5bn buyback programme announced in February, we forecast a ~30bp QOQ CET1 ratio downtick to 18.5%. That said, with still-ample headroom to its >16% target, we see prospects for further generous capital distributions. With 2025–2026e ROEs of >12%, we find the ~10% discount to 2024e book value excessive. We reiterate our BUY and have raised our target price to DKK23...
- Håkon Astrup
Axactor (Buy, TP: NOK6.80) - Abating interest rate pressure
We forecast Q1 pre-tax profit of EUR7m, down YOY, due to higher financing costs, although interest rates have stabilised since end-Q4. Somewhat softer collections from non-performing loans (NPL) and third-party (3PC) should lead to total income 3% lower YOY. We expect gradually increasing investments, with total volumes above replacement in 2024. We have made limited estimate revisions for 2025, and we reiterate our BUY and NOK6.80 target price.
- Håkon Astrup
Pareto Bank (Buy, TP: NOK63.00) - Strong loan-loss absorption capacity
Supported by solid NII and firm cost efficiency, we expect a Q1 ROE of 13.1% (results due at c07:30 CET on 25 April). While we expect some provisions in the challenged real estate development segment, we find the bank’s business model, with in-depth sector knowledge, thorough credit assessments and close customer relationships, supportive of asset quality. With the stock trading at a ~13% discount to 2024e book value, we continue to find the risk/reward attractive, seeing prospects for 2025–2026...
- Håkon Astrup
Repricing the tonic for bad weather
We expect above-normal weather-related claims in Q1 as a result of heavy rain and snowfall (and record-low temperatures) in the Nordics at the start of the year. On the positive side, we believe the non-life insurers should see the effects of 2023’s repricing efforts, while their latest CMD presentations leave us confident the sector remains committed to maintaining underwriting discipline. Tryg is our top pick in the Nordic P&C sector, while we also reiterate our BUYs on Sampo and Gjensidige an...
- Håkon Astrup
Storebrand (Buy, TP: NOK120.00) - Strong AUM momentum
Storebrand is set to benefit from strong equity markets in Q1, as we expect AUM to be up ~22% YOY. Together with solid profit sharing from the Swedish Guaranteed business, this should offset a soft insurance result from harsh weather and disability benefits, resulting in Q1 profit before amortisation of NOK924m, up 20% YOY. We forecast a Q1 Solvency II ratio of 195%, supporting continued buybacks in line with the 2023 CMD target of NOK12bn by 2030. We have raised our 2025–2026e EPS by 1–3% and o...
- Håkon Astrup
Protector (Buy, TP: NOK264.00) - GWP growth momentum building
We expect strong group GWP growth in Q1 to be partly offset by a more modest investment performance, resulting in PTP of NOK540m, down 16% YOY. Q1 is typically a low-volume quarter for the UK, but we expect continued strong growth from important 1 April renewals. We have made limited revisions to our 2025–2026e EPS, and reiterate our BUY and NOK264 target price.
- Håkon Astrup
Scope for continued strong earnings
Seeing support from still-high interest rates and sound fundamentals, we expect solid NII and robust asset quality to contribute to continued strong earnings generation for the banks, despite the stable and eventually falling key policy rate trajectory. Trading at an average 2025e P/E of ~8.5x (adjusted for undistributed 2023 dividends), we continue to find the valuation undemanding. We maintain a positive view on the sector and highlight SVEG as our top pick.
- Håkon Astrup
Sampo Oyj (Buy, TP: EUR47.00) - Capital and underwriting discipline
Underwriting improvements and capital generation were again in focus at the CMD. For 2024–2026, Sampo targets a lower group combined ratio of 7% annual growth in operating EPS, which it believes together with further capital optimalisation and a reduced Solvency II target of 150–190% should generate EUR4bn+ in deployable capital by 2026. We have made limited estimate revisions, and reiterate our BUY and EUR47 target price.
- Håkon Astrup
Sampo Oyj (Buy, TP: EUR47.00) - Building a strong P&C foundation
At the CMD due on 6 March, we will look for an update on utilising the renewed P&C focus to drive If P&C improvements and the UK turnaround in Hastings. We expect Sampo to target a combined ratio below 83% by 2026, driven by a combined ratio below 82% in If P&C. Having exited Mandatum and Nordea, we believe the lower capital requirements should allow for further excess capital distributions as the solvency target drops to 150–170%. We reiterate our BUY and have raised our target price to EUR47 (...
- Håkon Astrup
Axactor (Buy, TP: NOK6.80) - Aiming high for 2026
Axactor reported strong Q4 EBIT of EUR32m, up 11% YOY driven by higher income from the NPL and 3PC segments, in addition to improved opex. As part of its new financial targets for 2026, Axactor is aiming for an ROE of 12% while maintaining an ambition of a 20–50% dividend payout. As NPL portfolio prices have yet to fully reflect the rising interest rates, Axactor aims for EUR100m–200m in annual investments. We have cut our 2024–2025e EPS by 3–5% on the outlook for somewhat lower collections, but...
- Håkon Astrup
B2Impact (Buy, TP: NOK10.50) - Strong cash quarter
The Q4 report was strong, yet mostly pre-announced, with cash metrics significantly affected by the closing of a ~NOK500m secured claim in Croatia. PTP was 5% stronger YOY, as increased unsecured ERC and collections offset the strong YOY increase in financial expenses. Having reduced overall funding costs by 0.5%-points after a series of market actions, management aims to reduce overall interest expenses further in 2024, prompting us to raise our 2024–2025e EPS by 1–3%. We reiterate our BUY and ...
- Håkon Astrup
Sparebanken Øst (Hold, TP: NOK51.00) - Generous dividend capacity
Helped by solid NII and low loan losses, SPOG reported a Q4 ROE of 9.7%, despite sustained cost pressure. The board proposed a generous 2023 DPS of NOK5.4, implying a ~95% payout ratio and a 9.9% dividend yield. With the bank’s strong capital position (noting further upside potential from Basel IV; +4.0%-points guidance) and flexible dividend policy, combined with a more moderate growth outlook, we see scope for payout ratios to remain close to 100%. That said, trading at a dividend-adjusted 202...
- Håkon Astrup
Sparebanken Sør (Buy, TP: NOK159.00) - Further NII and cost expansion
Helped by sustained NII expansion (+4.1% QOQ), SOR reported a Q4 ROE of 10.5%, despite negative trading income and elevated cost inflation. The board proposed a 2023 DPS of NOK10.0, implying a ~61% payout ratio (~50% policy) and a 6.9% dividend yield. With the stock trading at a dividend-adjusted 2025e P/E of 8.0x, we continue to find the valuation undemanding. We reiterate our BUY and NOK159 target price.
- Håkon Astrup
SpareBank 1 Helgeland (Hold, TP: NOK145.00) - Q4 ROE hit by elevated l...
While the NII momentum continued (+4.2% QOQ), the Q4 ROE was 8.2% versus its >11% target, following negative trading income and elevated loan losses. With an uptick in RWA and the proposed 2023 DPS of NOK10.8 implying a ~77% payout ratio, the CET1 ratio fell ~1.4%-points QOQ. That said, at 18.4%, the bank still has ample buffer to its updated >16.5% target. We have cut our target price to NOK145 (147) on trimmed estimates, and at a dividend-adjusted 2025e P/E of 8.5x, we now find the risk/reward...
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