reports
- Karl-Johan Bonnevier
Momentum Group (Hold, TP: SEK175.00) - Weak Q1 offset by acquisitions
Momentum Group began 2025 with a weakish Q1, partly due to seasonal variations but operationally still benefiting from its relatively stable Nordic industrial aftermarket exposure. We have tweaked our 2025–2027e EPS, with the operational headwind offset by recent acquisitions. With good ‘financial firepower’ and a solid acquisition track record, the sector roll-up angle looks intact. We reiterate our HOLD, but have cut our target price to SEK175 (190).
- Karl-Johan Bonnevier
Humana (Buy, TP: SEK52.00) - Growth agenda back in focus
The Q1 results were mixed, but with the financials now in good order, we see more of a growth focus ahead. We find management’s priorities logical, with our underlying forecast largely unchanged, but our 2025–2027e EPS cut by 6–2% on FX and non-cash items. We reiterate our BUY, but have trimmed our target price to SEK52 (53), focusing on Humana’s market opportunity, operating profile, financial outlook and valuation.
- Karl-Johan Bonnevier
Netel Group Holding (Buy, TP: SEK18.00) - Solid outlook for 2025
Q1 offered further signs of good progress towards reducing volatility and improving performances across its operations, albeit in a seasonally small (start-up) quarter. We still see solid demand fundamentals and Netel further rebuilding its financial capacity in 2025. Lowering its financial targets looks logical to us, despite triggering 12–13% cuts to our 2026–2027e EPS. We still like the stock (2025–2027e FCF yield of 13–23%), and reiterate our BUY, but have cut our target price to SEK18 (22).
- Karl-Johan Bonnevier
Alligo (Buy, TP: SEK160.00) - Plan Z in implementation
Q1 was tough, with still-weak market demand partly offset by still-strong gross margins and the contribution from recent acquisitions. We still see Alligo as a strong name on Nordic demand recovery, but the international turmoil has led us to delay the profitable growth scenario and an 8–10% cut to our 2025–2027e EPS. We see an industrial roll-up case and believe Alligo is well positioned for profitable growth as demand recovers. We reiterate our BUY but have cut our target price to SEK160 (175)...
- Karl-Johan Bonnevier
New Wave Group (Buy, TP: SEK138.00) - Good stable start to 2025
New Wave Group continued to perform well against a weak retail backdrop, seeing accelerating organic growth in its Q1 with operating leverage. Its rebalanced sourcing platform over the last few years is now a strong risk mitigator in the current tariff turbulence and a competitive advantage, in our view. Solid FCF and financials suggest the company has ample resources to drive its organic initiatives (US/Canada in high focus), potential M&A, and shareholder-friendly capital allocations. We reite...
- Karl-Johan Bonnevier
Coor Service Management (Buy, TP: SEK54.00) - Efficiencies gaining mom...
Promising signs of Coor’s self-improvement case gaining momentum were crystallised in sharp increases in earnings and FCF in Q1. This further improved the risk/reward in our view, combining internal efficiencies and a strengthening Nordic FM/IFM market, with Coor’s own portfolio largely derisked for 2025. After tweaking our 2025–2027e EPS, we reiterate our BUY and have raised our target price to SEK54 (52) on a strengthening turnaround case at an attractive valuation, in our view.
- Karl-Johan Bonnevier
Scandic Hotels (Buy, TP: SEK115.00) - Strong ahead of high season
Q1 tends to be seasonally weak, with Scandic Hotels’ results broadly in line with our expectations, translating into minor upward forecast changes. With solid pre-bookings ahead of the high season, we see continued RevPAR growth of 4–5% for 2025e driving FCF, allowing growth initiatives and shareholder-friendly capital allocation. Our EV/EBITDA valuation target of 8x would better mirror the quality of the franchise, in our view, and we reiterate our BUY and SEK115 target price.
- Karl-Johan Bonnevier
Coor Service Management (Buy, TP: SEK52.00) - Self-improvement case ma...
We see signs of Coor’s self-improvement case evolving in Q1, with efficiency actions detailed and a strong FCF reversal likely. In our view, this improves the risk/reward, with internal improvements gaining momentum as the underlying Nordic FM/IFM market remains supportive. After tweaking our 2025–2027e EPS, we reiterate our BUY and have raised our target price to SEK52 (48) on a strengthening turnaround case at an attractive valuation.
- Karl-Johan Bonnevier
Securitas (Buy, TP: SEK192.00) - More of the same in Q1e
We expect Q1 to show similar trends to the most recent quarters, but negative FX translation effects (strengthening SEK) still result in cuts to our 2025–2027e EPS of 4–5%. We continue to see a robust transformation case, as the journey towards the 8% profit margin target by end-2025 continues, with our H2 2025e EBITA margin now at 7.8–7.9%. We reiterate our BUY, but have lowered our target price to SEK192 (200).
- Karl-Johan Bonnevier
Skistar (Buy, TP: SEK193.00) - Monetising high-season demand
Q2 showed solid execution in the core Ski Operations, with international demand driving SkiPass revenue (+11% YOY FX-adj.). With the late Easter this year, pre-bookings are down 5% YOY, albeit still supporting an outlook for a record high-season 2024/25. We have raised our 2024/2025–2026/27e EBIT for Ski Operations by 2–5%. We like SkiStar’s operating model, pricing power, and positive market trends. We reiterate our BUY and have raised our target price to SEK193 (185).
- Karl-Johan Bonnevier
Ambea (Buy, TP: SEK130.00) - Acquiring Validia Oy
Ambea’s acquisition of Validia Oy, entering the Finnish social care market, makes good sense to us. A post-integration valuation of c7.5x EV/EBITA and tacit ROIC of c13% suggest a solid deal, and consolidating Validia Oy implies 4–5% increases to our 2025–2027e adj. EPS. We see a strong case, with robust demand, solid FCF and financials giving room for share buybacks/dividends and further possible acquisitions. We reiterate our BUY and have raised our target price to SEK130 (123).
- Karl-Johan Bonnevier
Norva24 (Hold, TP: SEK36.50) - SEK36.50/share cash offer
Apax Funds (through Nordahl BidCo AB) announced a recommended cash offer of SEK36.50/share for all outstanding shares in Norva24. As the principal shareholders (representing c57% of the outstanding shares) have undertaken to accept the offer and as we see a low likelihood of a competing bid, we have downgraded to HOLD (BUY) and reduced our target price to SEK36.50 (37). We find the offer in line with our view of the company as a premium asset.
- Karl-Johan Bonnevier
Norva24 (Buy, TP: SEK37.00) - Still not firing on all cylinders
The Q4 results were mixed, with the German project business (to be discontinued) weighing on performance. We have tweaked our EPS forecasts post-Q4, and await Norva24’s CMD, where it will likely detail ambitious profitable growth targets for the coming strategy period. Demand in the fragmented European UIM service market remains strong, in our view supporting a financial model with the potential for a ‘buy-and-build’ sector roll-up. We reiterate our BUY and SEK37 target price.
- Karl-Johan Bonnevier
Scandic Hotels (Buy, TP: SEK115.00) - Solid mix of growth and returns
Scandic Hotels ended 2024 on a strong note, with still-solid FCF generation in the seasonally slower Q4. Moreover, its CMD highlighted a new room-growth goal, adding to the supportive market outlook, and the record-strong financials allow for a more ambitious capital allocation policy (dividend and share buybacks). With its ‘financial muscle’ better utilised, we have updated our valuation base to an EV/EBITDA of 8x, on a par with the valuation when Hilton took it private in 2001. We reiterate ou...
- Karl-Johan Bonnevier
Momentum Group (Hold, TP: SEK190.00) - Quarterly demand volatility
Q4 saw increased volatility QOQ, but we have only tweaked our 2025–2027e EPS as demand indicators look supportive into 2025, given Momentum Group’s Nordic industrial aftermarket exposure. With good financial ‘firepower’ and an indicated solid acquisition pipeline, the sector roll-up angle looks intact. We reiterate our HOLD but have raised our target price to SEK190 (180) on key peers’ valuation.
- Karl-Johan Bonnevier
Alligo (Buy, TP: SEK175.00) - Operational-gearing case for 2025
Q4 was tough, as we expected, with still-weak market demand exacerbated by the mild winter and much lower supplier volume discounts. On a positive, we expect a recovery in demand in 2025 to reverse the negative volume gearing of 2024. We see an industrial roll-up case evolving, and believe Alligo is well positioned for profitable growth as demand recovers. We reiterate our BUY and SEK175 target price.
- Karl-Johan Bonnevier
Storskogen (Buy, TP: SEK15.80) - Growth-oriented capital allocation
Storskogen’s 2024 might be seen as uneventful from a growth perspective, but major steps were taken to reestablish its investment credentials with its portfolio clean-up, improved FCF and return to financial strength. We see the potential for the company to return to a more growth-oriented capital allocation focus in 2025, ending the deleveraging period. We reiterate our BUY on still-strong valuation support and have raised our target price to SEK15.8 (11.7), moving from a SOTP to a valuation mu...
- Karl-Johan Bonnevier
Ambea (Buy, TP: SEK123.00) - In capital-allocation mode
Q4 showed still-solid revenue, earnings and FCF generation, meeting its medium-term >9.5% EBITA margin target (Q4 LTM 9.7%) already 2024. We see a strong case, given: 1) the robust demand outlook combined with an asset-light, cash-generating model; 2) renewed execution on bolt-on acquisitions and dividends/share buybacks; and 3) an attractive valuation at 2025–2027e FCF yields of 9–10%. We reiterate our BUY and have raised our target price to SEK123 (120).
- Karl-Johan Bonnevier
Bravida (Buy, TP: SEK112.00) - Performing well; recovery in H2e
Bravida navigated the slow Nordic installation market well in Q4, with the market demand forecast turning positive for 2025–2026. We focus on the strong FCF generation and financials, attractive capital allocation, and market consolidation opportunities. With management seeing its 7% EBITA margin target as realistic for 2026 (our estimate 6.6%), the risk/reward looks attractive to us, and we reiterate our BUY and SEK112 target price.
- Karl-Johan Bonnevier
Humana (Buy, TP: SEK53.00) - Back in capital allocation mode
The Q4 results solidified Humana’s return to stronger execution, with financial gearing again at an investment-grade level, allowing for more investor-friendly capital allocation (DPS SEK1.00 and renewed share buybacks). We find the new management’s priorities logical, and have minorly revised our 2025–2027e EPS. We reiterate our BUY and SEK53 target price on the operating and financial credentials, focusing on Humana’s market opportunity, operating profile, financial outlook and valuation.
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