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Karl-Johan Bonnevier
  • Karl-Johan Bonnevier

Skistar (Buy, TP: SEK160.00) - Outlook for record season

Q2 showed solid execution in the core Ski Operations, with international demand driving SkiPass revenue (+16% YOY FX-adj.), also boding well for Q3, with bed pre-bookings up 13% YOY, reflecting a positive calendar effect YOY and good snow conditions. We have raised our 2023/24–2025/26e EBIT for Ski Operations by 8–4%. We like SkiStar’s operating model, pricing power, and positive market trends (staycations and ESG). We reiterate our BUY and have raised our target price to SEK160 (150).

Karl-Johan Bonnevier
  • Karl-Johan Bonnevier

Norva24 (Buy, TP: SEK34.00) - Harsh winter a seasonal headwind

Q4 revenue growth was solid, but the EBITA margin and FCF generation were weaker than we forecast. We have only tweaked our EPS forecasts, reflecting FX, financials, and non-cash items. Demand in the fragmented European UIM service market remains strong, in our view supporting a financial model with the potential for a ‘buy-and-build’ sector roll-up. We reiterate our BUY and SEK34 target price.

Karl-Johan Bonnevier
  • Karl-Johan Bonnevier

Momentum Group (Hold, TP: SEK135.00) - Value-creating ‘buy and build’

Momentum Group reported a solid Q4, and remains poised to adapt as some areas are seeing lower activity but no broad-based slowdown is in sight, as it enjoys relatively stable aftermarket exposure. With good financial ‘firepower’ and a solid acquisition pipeline, the sector roll-up angle looks promising. We reiterate our HOLD but have raised our target price to SEK135 (110).

Karl-Johan Bonnevier
  • Karl-Johan Bonnevier

Alligo (Buy, TP: SEK180.00) - Ready to press accelerator

Alligo’s Q4 was mixed but broadly in line with our expectations, with weaker market demand offset by ‘self-help’ initiatives. We find the now better-integrated and enhanced Alligo model balancing the weak Nordic market well, also being well positioned for profitable growth when demand recovers. We view Alligo’s >10% EBITA margin target as ambitious but realistic. We see a solid business-improvement case, and reiterate our BUY and have raised our target price to SEK180 (135).

Karl-Johan Bonnevier
  • Karl-Johan Bonnevier

Netel Group Holding (Buy, TP: SEK25.00) - Re-establishing its credenti...

Netel entered 2024 with a solid order backlog and re-established financial strength, after good progress in Q4, but we believe it still needs to lower volatility and raise performance across its operations. We continue to see solid demand fundamentals and Netel further rebuilding its financial capacity in 2024. We have only tweaked our forecasts, and still find the stock attractive (2024–2026e FCF yield of 21–27%) even after the recent strong performance. We reiterate our BUY and have raised our...

Karl-Johan Bonnevier
  • Karl-Johan Bonnevier

Storskogen (Buy, TP: SEK8.70) - Another year of deleveraging focus

Q4 was weak with an 8.5% sales decline YOY and narrowing profit margins, while FCF generation remained a point of strength. The near-term outlook seems less supportive, translating into 11–7% cuts to our 2024–2025e EPS and with the focus remaining on deleveraging and internal efficiency. Thus, we see a less-eventful 2024 ahead, with our forecasts suggesting the gearing target of 2.0x RTM net debt to EBITDA should be reached by end-2024e. We continue to see value support (2024–2026e FCF yields of...

Karl-Johan Bonnevier
  • Karl-Johan Bonnevier

Bravida (Buy, TP: SEK97.00) - Q4 back on better form

Bravida’s Q4 was mixed, with still-solid order intake and much-improved FCF generation clouded by project write-downs in Denmark, but net-net positive. We still see Bravida having the financial resources to increase its share of the weaker construction market, and have raised our 2025–2026e EPS by 6–8% following the Q4 report. We reiterate our BUY, and have raised our target price to SEK97 (83).

Karl-Johan Bonnevier
  • Karl-Johan Bonnevier

Scandic Hotels (Buy, TP: SEK71.00) - Entered 2024 on a strong footing

Scandic Hotels ended 2023 on a strong note, with still-strong FCF generation in the seasonally weaker Q4. Moreover, it entered 2024 with record-strong financials to drive growth initiatives and capital allocation. The stock is still trading at a substantial discount to where it was before the pandemic, and we expect the likely upcoming convertible bond conversion to be offset by share buybacks, implying an attractive risk/reward. We reiterate our BUY and SEK71 target price.

Karl-Johan Bonnevier
  • Karl-Johan Bonnevier

Coor Service Management (Buy, TP: SEK57.50) - Reset DPS allows for fut...

We believe Coor improved in Q4, well-offsetting the lost Ericsson contract, with its model still showing strong FCF. We have only tweaked our 2024–2026e EPS. We continue to like its FCF profile, low operating risk, scope for value-enhancing acquisitions, and strong yield support, with the reset 2023 DPS of SEK3.00 (7.2% yield) allowing for de-gearing towards 2x net debt/EBITDA and a 2024–2026e DPS growth scenario. We reiterate our BUY and have raised our target price to SEK57.5 (56).

Karl-Johan Bonnevier
  • Karl-Johan Bonnevier

Humana (Hold, TP: SEK27.00) - Never a good time to leave

Q4 was mixed, with Finland and Norway partly offsetting challenges in Sweden and much-improved FCF lending some support. We still see a need for Humana to re-establish its quality credentials, and believe high financial gearing implies that deleveraging focus is needed also in 2024, with the departure of CEO Johanna Rastad adding uncertainty at the wrong time. We reiterate our HOLD but have lowered our target price to SEK27 (29).

Karl-Johan Bonnevier
  • Karl-Johan Bonnevier

Ambea (Buy, TP: SEK76.00) - Yet another strong showing

Solid revenue, earnings and FCF growth continued, with the components to reach its medium-term >9.5% EBITA margin target becoming more visible. The robust demand outlook combined with Ambea’s asset-light and cash-generating model, with potential acquisition and restarted share buybacks, and an attractive valuation (2024–2026e FCF yield of 12–17%), makes for a strong case, in our view. We reiterate our BUY and have raised our target price to SEK76 (72).

Karl-Johan Bonnevier
  • Karl-Johan Bonnevier

Bergman & Beving (Buy, TP: SEK200.00) - New target ‘500/10/45’ by 2025...

The Q3 report showed stronger profit margins and FCF generation, which we believe allows for a continued acquisition focus (six deals YTD), offsetting weaker demand indicators and FX. We have raised our 2023/24–2025/26e EPS by 4–7%. We see potential in the ‘focus model’ to reach a 10% EBIT margin and EBIT of SEK500m by 2025/26 and P/working capital of 45% by 2026/27, now in our value gap analysis. We reiterate our BUY and have raised our target price to SEK200 (170).

Karl-Johan Bonnevier
  • Karl-Johan Bonnevier

New Wave Group (Buy, TP: SEK125.00) - Continued solid delivery

New Wave Group continued to perform well against a weak retail backdrop, with strong profit margins and FCF in Q4. We see continued market share gains; however, allowing for slightly less supportive FX and new growth initiatives, we have reduced our 2024–2026e EPS by 3–5%. Its strong financials suggest it has ample resources to drive its organic initiatives, potential M&A and shareholder-friendly capital allocation. We reiterate our BUY and have raised our target price to SEK125 (115).

Karl-Johan Bonnevier
  • Karl-Johan Bonnevier

Securitas (Buy, TP: SEK158.00) - Back to investment grade

With all eyes on FCF before the report, Securitas took gearing back to investment grade at end-Q4. We have raised our forecasts slightly, with the company progressing well towards its end-2025 8% profit margin target. We still see a strong transformation case, with the potentially riskier early integration of Stanley Security now behind us; we thus reiterate our BUY and have raised our target price to SEK158 (154).

Karl-Johan Bonnevier
  • Karl-Johan Bonnevier

AcadeMedia AB (Buy, TP: SEK63.00) - Q3e share redemption

The Q2 results were in line with expectations with still-strong FCF generation and an indication of 4–5% school-voucher price adjustments for 2024, now better offsetting ongoing cost inflation. We have only tweaked our EPS forecasts following the results. We see a solid demand outlook and an attractive valuation (2023/24–2025/26e FCF yields of 14–21%), with the upcoming Q3e share redemption (equal to a buyback of c3.8% of shares outstanding) starting to counter ‘value trap’ arguments. We reitera...

Karl-Johan Bonnevier
  • Karl-Johan Bonnevier

Loomis (Buy, TP: SEK425.00) - FCF back in good shape

Q4 saw still-strong organic growth, weaker European earnings leverage, and Loomis building further financial capacity. We view Loomis as a well-financed roll-up case, with the resources to drive sector consolidation and shareholder-friendly capital allocation, with a 2023 DPS of SEK12.50 being proposed (+4% YOY) and the company renewing its share buybacks (SEK200m) in Q1. We reiterate our BUY and SEK425 target price.

Karl-Johan Bonnevier
  • Karl-Johan Bonnevier

Ambea (Buy, TP: SEK72.00) - Solid business improvement case

We see a solid business improvement case playing out in Ambea, with 2023–2026e earnings and FCF set to bring its target of a >9.5% EBITA margin within reach, in our view. We like Ambea’s robust demand outlook combined with its asset-light and cash-generating model, with potential acquisition and capital-allocation opportunities, and an attractive valuation (2024–2026e FCF yield of 12–18%). We reiterate our BUY and have raised our target price to SEK72 (57).

Karl-Johan Bonnevier
  • Karl-Johan Bonnevier

Securitas (Buy, TP: SEK154.00) - One of our top picks for 2024

In our view, Securitas ticks most boxes for a top pick in 2024, with its self-help opportunity in the finalisation of the transformation programme and the Stanley Security integration. Given the company’s good progress towards its 8% profit margin target by end-2025 is still not reflected in consensus (or our forecasts), and with the stock trading at a c30% discount to its 10-year average, we still see a strong investment case. We reiterate our BUY and have raised our target price to SEK154 (153...

Karl-Johan Bonnevier
  • Karl-Johan Bonnevier

Skistar (Buy, TP: SEK150.00) - Record season in the outlook

SkiStar’s Q1 tends to be a low-season quarter that saw higher costs than forecast but with limited carry-over effects, implying only minor forecast changes. We still find booking trends solid for high season 2023/24 (up 9% YOY), suggesting strong results as in earlier recessionary periods. We like SkiStar’s operating model, pricing power, and positive market trends (staycations and ESG). We reiterate our BUY and have raised our target price to SEK150 (138).

Karl-Johan Bonnevier
  • Karl-Johan Bonnevier

Norva24 (Buy, TP: SEK34.00) - New CEO showing the way

The Q3 results were solid, with good organic growth and profit expansion, and the new CEO’s focus areas are harmonising with the 2025 targets. We have marginally raised our 2023–2025e EPS, with recent acquisitions offsetting higher financial costs. Demand in the fragmented European UIM service market remains strong, in our view supporting a financial model with the potential for a ‘buy-and-build’ sector roll-up. We reiterate our BUY and SEK34 target price.

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