reports
- Dominic Rose
- Naresh Chouhan
- Dominic Rose
- Naresh Chouhan
- Dominic Rose
- Naresh Chouhan
UCB - Highest Conviction Long (BUY, TP EUR300, 13pgs)
Deeper analysis on Bimzelx pricing means UCB is now our highest conviction long (Roche & AZN have had big moves). We show that: 1) Bimzelx ’26 pricing concerns are overdone, 2) 55% US volume growth in 2026 is likely, 3) Consensus is likely too low for H225 on US Bimzelx (pricing is likely +ive vs H125), 4) Guidance is likely in-line with cons. & 5) H225 has 2 upside drivers, with BE-BOLD boosting rheum volumes & one big payor likely unlocking HS access. Our proprietary product-by-product model s...
- Dominic Rose
- Naresh Chouhan
- Dominic Rose
- Naresh Chouhan
Thematic - 2026 Outlook - "5 More Years" (55pgs)
For access to the full note, please contact Naresh Chouhan ( ) With EU Pharma (ex-Novo) now having reached decade high valuations vs EuroStoxx600, we believe the sector has broken out & the sustainability of the growth profile will now generate continued strong performance. Consensus 5yr sales & EPS CAGR’s stand at 4% & 7% for 15x 2026 PE. We show there is upside to this from underestimated pipelines where cons. rarely fully models “monster” drugs & from M&A which we expect to be strong at JPM ...
- Dominic Rose
- Naresh Chouhan
- Dominic Rose
- Naresh Chouhan
- Dominic Rose
- Naresh Chouhan
- Dominic Rose
- Naresh Chouhan
- Dominic Rose
- Naresh Chouhan
- Dominic Rose
- Naresh Chouhan
- Dominic Rose
- Naresh Chouhan
- Dominic Rose
- Naresh Chouhan
- Dominic Rose
- Naresh Chouhan
- Dominic Rose
- Naresh Chouhan
- Dominic Rose
- Naresh Chouhan
Sanofi - Downgrade to HOLD (TP EUR78 [125], 25pgs)
Our downgrade is predicated on 4 things: 1) Following the weak amlitelimab data, the Dupixent LOE needs to be explicitly modelled given that it will be encompassed in forecasts within a few months, 2) Our work shows that the REGN Alliance is unlikely to be restructured which could have favoured Sanofi in the S-T with more of the Dupi economics, 3) There are growing headwinds for Vaccines & RSV, & 4) Lack of catalysts. Blowout data from tolebrutinib is the only thing that could change our view in...
- Dominic Rose
- Naresh Chouhan
UCB - Quantifying the MoonLake Risk
UCB is our highest conviction BUY despite the imminent HS Phase 3 readout from MoonLake. We show the NPV downside is likely MSD, that ~40% of Bim sales are unaffected by sonelokimab & that UCB will out-muscle MoonLake across many domains. Our analysis of the HS data shows that background antibiotic use will need to be considered & that the drugs look very similar. However, UCB’s ~$5bn rebate wall, the >€1bn higher M&S spend than Moonlake & the L-T safety data all protect Bim’, as will the psoria...
- Dominic Rose
- Naresh Chouhan
AZN - Underappreciated & Undervalued (BUY, TP £150, 20pgs)
With the baxdrostat P3 to be published on 30th August, we show that AZN’s pipeline upside is underappreciated, in part due to the significant complexity & sheer volume of readouts. We also show that Imfinzi peak sales are likely too low; we are $2bn higher than consensus in 2029. We expect consensus forecasts to materially increase after the full baxdrostat data on the 30th August, we are ~$2bn higher than consensus and see upside risk to our forecasts. AZN’s catalyst path is one of the best in ...
- Dominic Rose
- Naresh Chouhan
Embla Medical - NAViigating The Future of Bionics (BUY, TP DKK 56)
Following Q2 results, we provide investors with an update on the NAVii and ICON knee launches in Medicare and show that the NAVii knee is highly differentiated, presenting users with a very favourable value proposition. The Streifeneder majority stake acquisition is likely to bring a ~3% tailwind to sales next year with minimal incremental debt. We also show that the impact of US tariffs on Chinese-imported Bracing & Supports products is minimal ($0.5m in Q2) and can be mitigated through manufac...
- Dominic Rose
- Naresh Chouhan
Novo - Upgrade to HOLD (PT DKK300, 8pgs)
With the orfo’ data being on the lower side of expectations, we upgrade to Hold as the narrative is likely to be dominated by the potential upside for Novo. However, we remain convinced that: 1) The obesity market is nowhere near as big as the market believes, 2) Ozempic no’s are far too high & 3) Margin forecasts need to fall. Cons’ Ozempic forecasts will take time to fall & we will likely need the IRA price in November to force consensus lower. Therefore, we see limited S-T downside to our DKK...
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