UCB - Quantifying the MoonLake Risk
UCB is our highest conviction BUY despite the imminent HS Phase 3 readout from MoonLake. We show the NPV downside is likely MSD, that ~40% of Bim sales are unaffected by sonelokimab & that UCB will out-muscle MoonLake across many domains. Our analysis of the HS data shows that background antibiotic use will need to be considered & that the drugs look very similar. However, UCB’s ~$5bn rebate wall, the >€1bn higher M&S spend than Moonlake & the L-T safety data all protect Bim’, as will the psoriasis indication. We value UCB at €270 & are ~30% higher on 2030 Adj. EBITDA.For access to the full note, please contact Naresh Chouhan ( )
UCB is a global biopharmaceutical company focused on severe diseases in two therapeutic areas, namely central nervous system disorders and immunology. In the area of central nervous system disorders, Co. is focused on advanced Parkinson's disease, epilepsy, restless legs syndrome and epilepsy. In the area of immunology disorders, Co. is focused on rheumatoid arthritis, axial spondyloarthritis, psoriatic arthritis, systemic lupus erythematosus, juvenile idiopathic arthritis, post-menopausal osteoporosis, systemic lupus erythematosus and immunological diseases.
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