reports
- Helene Kvilhaug Brøndbo
Cloudberry (Hold, TP: NOK9.00) - A tough start to the year
With Q1e hit by turbine issues at Odal, we forecast power production of 172GWh, translating into proportionate EBITDA of NOK51m. Based on more lost production at Odal, lower forward power prices and an outlook for reduced guarantee of origin prices, we have significantly cut our estimates (proportionate EBITDA down 19% for 2024e, 27% for 2025e, and 46% for 2026e). Given the lower power price outlook, we have also lowered our target price to NOK9 (10). We reiterate our HOLD.
- Helene Kvilhaug Brøndbo
Agilyx (Buy, TP: NOK40.00) - Progressing as planned
With the H2 results largely in line and no major news on Cyclyx or the conversion side, we consider the report neutral and have barely changed our estimates. On the bright side, Agilyx cites high demand for its circularity centres (CCCs), with nine petrochemical companies having signed MoUs for offtake from future centres. We reiterate our BUY and NOK40 target price based on five initial CCCs, but see further upside potential in the event of a favourable market where more facilities are built.
- Helene Kvilhaug Brøndbo
Cambi Minor model adjustments
We have updated our estimates ahead of Cambi’s Q1 report, due on 7 May. We forecast EBITDA of NOK64m and a cash position of NOK383m. Our modelled order intake is NOK298m, primarily reflecting announced orders in Hawaii and Norway. We do not consider these changes to be material, and have not changed our BUY recommendation or NOK20 target price.
- Helene Kvilhaug Brøndbo
Hexagon Purus (Hold, TP: NOK6.00) - Funding clarity wanted
With ongoing ramp-up at several of its factories, we expect activity in 2024e to be backend-loaded and forecast Q1 EBITDA of NOK-119m, 4% below consensus of NOK-115m. Although we like the company’s long-term business story, we continue to see a high funding requirement as well as funding uncertainty creating headwinds for the stock. We have cut our target price to NOK6 (11) on more dilutive funding and have downgraded the stock to HOLD (BUY).
- Helene Kvilhaug Brøndbo
Scatec (Hold, TP: NOK72.00) - Awaiting deleveraging
We expect El Niño to continue to hamper power production in the Philippines, and estimate proportionate Q1 EBITDA of NOK619m, 3% below consensus (results due at 07:00 CET on 30 April). With still-high leverage (2024e NIBD/EBITDA of 6x), we await news on the plan for asset sales, which we believe could spark excitement in the capital markets. However, we reiterate our HOLD and NOK72 target price, as we see too-low cash flow generation to justify a premium to our SOTP.
- Helene Kvilhaug Brøndbo
Bonheur (Buy, TP: NOK275.00) - Q1e hit by lower power prices
We expect Q1 to be hurt by lower power prices and an idle turbine installation vessel, and forecast Q1 EBITDA of NOK817m, well below consensus. With no ongoing construction activity, we expect focus to be on how to get the consented onshore capacity into operation, and contracting activity in FOWIC. We reiterate our BUY but have cut our target price to NOK275 (290) on lower long-term power price expectations reducing our NAV and a slightly higher discount to NAV.
- Helene Kvilhaug Brøndbo
Ørsted (Hold, TP: DKK405.00) - Anticipation for 2024 tender activity
With record-high 2024 tender activity (up to 40GW of offshore wind capacity set to be awarded by year-end), the supply/demand balance for new capacity is starting to look more promising. With limited growth priced into Ørsted’s share price, we believe any awards at accretive offtake prices could spark capital markets’ belief in renewed profitable growth and spark investor interest. On the other hand, we expect some of the tenders to remain competitive, and the high auctioned capacity could put f...
- Helene Kvilhaug Brøndbo
Agilyx - Initiation of coverage - Completing the plastics cycle
Through its subsidiary Cyclyx, Agilyx is helping resolve a key bottleneck in chemical recycling: access to proper plastic-waste feedstock. This is increasingly understood by the industry, and underpinned by backing from strong industrial partners (ExxonMobil and LyondellBasell), reducing risk and ensuring solid economics for its recycling centres. We initiate coverage with a BUY and NOK40 target price based on five initial recycling centres, but see further upside potential in the event of a fav...
- Helene Kvilhaug Brøndbo
Cambi (Buy, TP: NOK20.00) - Investment case intact
Q4 EBITDA was NOK59m, NOK14m below our NOK72m forecast due to bonus accruals not included in our estimates. Despite slow order intake (book-to-bill of 0.2x), the backlog coverage was decent at 78% for 2024e, 53% for 2025e and 30% for 2026e (excluding soil sales), but implies additional backlog is needed to maintain current activity. We reiterate our BUY and NOK20 target price, and find the stock attractive at a 2024–2025e EV/EBITDA of 8.8–8.6x versus its waste management and recycling peer group...
- Helene Kvilhaug Brøndbo
Bonheur (Buy, TP: NOK290.00) - Undervalued, but no near-term triggers
Despite the strong Q4, we have cut our 2024–2025e EBITDA by 5–8% due to lower forward power prices and are now 5–9% below consensus. Our lower power price expectation has also led us to cut our target price to NOK290 (305). We reiterate our BUY and the stock remains our top pick among renewable energy producers, trading at an attractive 37% discount to our NAV, but we struggle to see any near-term triggers.
- Helene Kvilhaug Brøndbo
Cloudberry (Hold, TP: NOK10.00) - Patience needed
While we expect Cloudberry to continue to manage the factors in its control and develop profitable renewable energy projects, we have cut our proportionate 2024–2025e EBITDA by 10–8% on still-declining forward power prices. This and a review of its liquidity available for growth have prompted us to lower our target price to NOK10 (12); we have thus downgraded to HOLD (BUY). We believe investors need to await clarity on the turbine issues at Odal, higher power prices, and/or accretive asset sales...
- Helene Kvilhaug Brøndbo
Hexagon Purus (Buy, TP: NOK11.00) - Hit by delayed ramp-up and market ...
While we still view the long-term Hexagon Purus story as promising, we see delays to growth in 2024 (from a slower capacity ramp-up) and activity (from a sluggish hydrogen mobility market) that together with limited growth investments beyond 2025e has led us to lower our 2030 growth forecast. As a result, we have cut our target price to NOK11 (13), but reiterate our BUY. With a differentiated product offering that is more resilient to the soft green hydrogen market than its hydrogen equipment pe...
- Helene Kvilhaug Brøndbo
Otovo (Hold, TP: NOK2.60) - Needs to rebuild investor trust
With order intake on the soft side in Q4, we have lowered our installation forecasts for 2024–2025 by 27–11%, but expect this to be largely offset by guided opex reductions being higher than expected. With significant concerns about Otovo’s business model in the capital markets, we believe the company needs to rebuild investor confidence and start to achieve its targets by scaling up its platform and improving profitability to see any re-rating of the stock. We reiterate our HOLD and NOK2.6 targ...
- Helene Kvilhaug Brøndbo
Ørsted (Hold, TP: DKK375.00) - Good, but not enough
In line with our expectations, Ørsted’s strategic plans featured lower growth, more extensive farm-downs, a dividend halt for 2023–2025, and no new equity. While this should leave the company better capitalised, it was not enough to avoid a credit rating downgrade by S&P from BBB+ to BBB. As the company still has an investment grade rating and more robust growth plans than before, we do not expect a material negative effect. However, we believe it could result in slightly higher financing costs ...
- Helene Kvilhaug Brøndbo
Otovo (Hold, TP: NOK2.60) - Seeing is believing
With significant concerns about Otovo’s business model in the capital markets, we believe it is crucial for the company to prove its operating model by generating profit. We believe this could take time as the challenging market environment and fierce competition in residential solar constrains growth, and we do not forecast sufficient installation volumes for positive EBITDA generation until 2026e. We reinstate a recommendation with a HOLD and NOK2.6 target price, and believe it is key for mana...
- Helene Kvilhaug Brøndbo
Scatec (Hold, TP: NOK72.00) - Larger asset sales in sight
The reported Q4 EBITDA beat of 15–17% versus our estimate and consensus was mainly related to one-offs, but the stronger than expected margins in D&C were a positive. After having divested small assets in non-focus markets, the sale of large assets in non-core and core markets is on the table. We consider this prudent as it would help realise the value of its operative assets and allow for deleveraging, which should be warranted with a 2024e NIBD/EBITDA of 6.1x. We reiterate our HOLD, but have r...
- Helene Kvilhaug Brøndbo
Hexagon Purus (Buy, TP: NOK13.00) - Capacity ramp-up taking longer
We see Hexagon Purus’s capacity expansion taking somewhat longer than expected due to delayed equipment deliveries, leaving us 19% below consensus on Q4 revenues and 9% below on EBITDA. We have also lowered our 2024e revenues by 15%, leaving us 12% below consensus. With 54% of consensus 2024 revenues being covered by the backlog and 3–9 months of lead time from awards to execution under the company’s long-term agreements, we see the potential for negative revisions. However, we reiterate our BUY...
- Helene Kvilhaug Brøndbo
Cambi (Buy, TP: NOK20.00) - Order outlook in focus
We expect Cambi’s high activity to continue and forecast Q4 EBITDA of NOK72m. After a few quarters with very strong order intake, Cambi did not announce any orders in Q4. Thus, we believe investor focus will be centred around the outlook for the new orders needed for the current high activity to be sustained beyond 2024e. We reiterate our BUY and NOK20 target price, corresponding to a blended average 2024–2025e EV/EBITDA of 12x, and see the stock as attractive at ~10x versus its waste management...
- Helene Kvilhaug Brøndbo
Cloudberry (Buy, TP: NOK12.00) - Burdened by Odal turbine issues
We believe key focus in the Q4 report will be the turbine issues at Odal, where we see a risk of the repair and maintenance – and thus lower power production – persisting well into 2024e. With lower production at Odal, an outlook for lower power prices and a weaker NOK, we have reduced our 2024–2025e proportionate EBITDA by 45–30%. We reiterate our BUY and NOK12 target price, factoring in a small premium to our NAV to account for recent asset transactions in the sector at levels above our NAV.
- Helene Kvilhaug Brøndbo
Bonheur (Buy, TP: NOK305.00) - Consensus seems too high
We expect lower power production and lower UK power prices to weigh on Q4, and forecast NOK910m EBITDA, 14% below consensus. We have cut our 2024–2025e EBITDA by 27–17% on a combination of lower UK forward prices (-30% over the past two months) and a drop in the contribution from Wind Services after the US contract was cancelled. We are now 10–7% below consensus, but expect it to come down. We reiterate our BUY and NOK305 target price, with the stock trading attractively at a 28% premium to our ...
Unfortunately, this report is not available for the investor type or country you selected.
Report is subscription only.
Thank you, your report is ready.
Thank you, your report is ready.