reports
- Gabor Bukta
Model update – Favorable news flow ahead!
We update our model with the latest developments. We raise our TP to 33 GBP/sh from GBP 31 GBP/sh, while we remain BUY-rated. Our lifted TP reflects improved consumer sentiment, rising expectations for this summer's fare environment amid capacity constraints, as well as a more balanced labour market with rising real wages across Wizz's main markets.
- Gabor Bukta
One-offs distorted FY results, outlook shows resilience
Waberer’s reported its Q4/23 results on Thursday AMC, where the Company achieved aquarterly EBIT of EUR 9.3mn, corresponding to a decrease of 23% YoY. Net incomecame in at EUR 3.7mn, down 66% YoY driven by (1) the lower industrial output inEurope; (2) a massive increase in tax liabilities booked in Q4 and (3) the high baseperiod after the restatement of last year’s results. For the full year, Waberer’s reported a net income of EUR 29.7mn, an increase of EUR10.4mn or +54% YoY and EBIT of EUR 42....
- Gabor Bukta
Excellent year behind and more promising ahead
ANY posted its Q4 report on Friday, AMC. ANY reported net revenues of HUF 55.5bnfor 2023, representing a 28% increase compared to the last year. Net income almostdoubled (+90% YoY), reaching HUF 4.3bn (EPS of HUF 298) in the full year. Followingthe 2023 preliminary report, we must revisit our estimates, hence we put ourrecommendation under review. Our existing forecast looks outdated as we estimatednet sales of HUF 54.7bn for 2024 in August 2023. We believe that ANY's net sales canshow double-di...
- Gabor Bukta
Strong revenues but DPS may disappoint
OTP’s reported net income came to HUF 132.6 bln, while adjusted net income was atHUF 230.0 bln in the 4th quarter. This is 4% ahead of the market consensus of HUF221.3 bln while the figure remained below our estimate of HUF 271 bln (our net profitestimate was HUF 203 bln). Lower results stemmed from a (1) miss in the other income line (2) higher provisioning and (3) badwill release at Ipoteka given the weakerresults from the segment. Also, the Romanian loss on sale as well as the interest rateca...
- Gabor Bukta
Impressive guidance in line with our estimates
Richter posted clean EBIT of HUF 59.1bn (+18% YoY) on net sales of HUF 203.2bn(-9% YoY) for Q4/23. Clean EBIT was 36% ahead of the consensus estimate of HUF43.5bn and our estimate of HUF 43.4bn, respectively, while net revenue beatestimate significantly. As a result, clean EBIT (incl. extra taxes) margin stood at29.2% compared to our estimate of 23.7%.
- Gabor Bukta
CIG Pannonia reported solid results for ‘23
CIG Pannonia (Pannonia) reported a PAT of HUF 1.51bn for Q4/23 compared to HUF0.95bn in Q4/22 (+59% YoY) and HUF 0.77bn in Q3/23 (+96% QoQ). Othercomprehensive income including the changes in the fair value of other financialassets (OPUS shares and government securities) valued at fair value was HUF 1.77bncompared to HUF 1.17bn in Q4/22. Total comprehensive income came in at HUF2.2bn in Q4/23, up from HUF 1.75bn in Q4/22.
- Gabor Bukta
Massive payout after '23 and impressive guidance for '24
MTEL reported a strong set of results on Thursday noon, as they reported higher-thanexpected revenues and net profit for Q4 and the full year of 2023. MTEL proposed a DPSof HUF 44.7 and announced a SBB program of up to HUF 24bn. Adj. net profit is seen atHUF 130bn in 2024, well ahead of consensus, suggesting a total shareholderremuneration of HUF 91bn calculated at a 70% POR after 2024 earnings. Group revenues increased by 15.1% YoY in Q4/23 or 13.8% QoQ, driven by strong demandfor mobile data ...
- Gabor Bukta
More than a single drug company
This is a transfer of coverage as after 30 years of equity research at ConcordeSecurities, Attila Vago left the Company. In line with our previous approach, we are still eager to evaluate Richter with a sum-of-thepartsmethod. We find this very important in case of Richter, as it consists of four wellseparated segments with different prospects and profitability. These are the Women’sHealthcare (WHC), the Neuropsychiatry (CNS or central nervous system), theBiotechnology (BIO) and the General Medi...
- Gabor Bukta
FY guidance remained unchanged despite weak Q3
Wizz Air’s fiscal Q3 report was disappointing as revenue, EBITDA and net income missed our estimates. Having said that, Wizz Air made no change to the GTF engine removal projections and continue to expect a total of around 40 aircraft grounded at the end of March. Wizz Air continue to guide a net income for fiscal 2024 in the range of between EUR 350-400mn, supported by positive trading, higher utilization of operational fleet, one-off benefits from OEM cost protection and credits from deferre...
- Gabor Bukta
Model update – delivering guidance is a bit challenging
We slightly cut our target price from 32.0 GBP/sh to 31.0 GBP/sh, however, we remain BUY-rated on the stock. This reflects the weaker than earlier expected fiscal Q3 results, which we expect to be disappointing. Wizz Air will report its fiscal Q3 earnings on the 25th of January, BMO. We significantly cut our estimates for the quarter ended on the 31st of December, driven by the Middle East tension and operational hiccups. Softening demand, which we expect, could also raise concerns among inves...
- Gabor Bukta
CIG Pannonia shows resilience in Q3/23 despite one-offs
CIG Pannonia (Pannonia or the insurer) reported HUF 772mn after tax profit for Q3/23 compared to HUF 938mn in Q3/22. Other comprehensive income including the changes in the fair value of other financial assets (OPUS shares and government securities) valued at fair value was HUF -191mn compared to a loss of HUF 1.33bn in Q3/22. Total comprehensive income came in at HUF 2.34bn in Q3/23 as against a slight loss of HUF 44mn in Q3/22. Pannonia’s capital position has constantly been stable, with a cap...
- Gabor Bukta
Q1-Q3/23 results exceeded FY22 earnings
AutoWallis posted revenues of HUF 283bn in 9M/23 (+36% YoY), exceeding the total sales of FY22 (HUF 270 bn). The company sold nearly 35ths vehicles during the period (+46% YoY), all the while export markets grew by 13%, offset by the 3.2% decrease in the Hungarian market. Q3 sales came in at HUF 88.6 bn, representing an increase of 14% YoY and a decrease of -5.9% QoQ. Export sales accounted for 58% of the total. 9M/23 EBITDA rose by 35% YoY to HUF 17.5bn, resulting in an EBITDA margin of 6.2%...
- Gabor Bukta
Record quarterly EPS raises our DPS forecast
ANY Security Printing Co. posted a net profit of HUF 2.0bn (+420% YoY or +96% QoQ) on net sales of HUF 17.9bn (+50% YoY or +19% QoQ) for Q3/23, boosted by the extraordinary contribution of export sales. EPS for the 9M/23 reached 243 HUF/sh. As a result, we raise our DPS estimate from HUF 214 to HUF 280. We reiterate our 12m ex-div TP at 2,490 HUF/sh, leaving a 42% total return upside potential. 9M/23 net profit came in at HUF 3.5bn vs HUF 2.0bn a year ago (+73%% YoY), despite the same period...
- Gabor Bukta
Model update – we reduced our TP to 32 GBP/sh
After the fiscal Q2 results, we update our model. We remain Buy-rated, but we lower our 12m TP to 32 GBP/sh amid operational challenges. We continue to see Wizz Air as a structural winner, but execution risk is elevated amid GTF engine issues, as well as the geopolitical tension, which hurts the growth story. We cut our net profit estimates for FY24/25/26 by 21%/35%/17%, respectively. Wizz Air trades at FY24 and FY25 P/E of 6.9x/6.1x, respectively, on our estimates. Wizz Air may face credibi...
- Gabor Bukta
Q3 results were strong despite FX headwinds and extra taxes
Richter posted clean EBIT of HUF 49.4bn (-24% YoY) on net sales HUF 188.5bn (-13% YoY) for Q3/23. Clean EBIT was 8% ahead of the consensus estimate of HUF 45.8bn and our estimate, respectively, while net revenue was broadly in line with both the consensus forecast of HUF 191.3bn and our estimate. As a result, clean EBIT (incl. extra taxes) margin stood at 19.8% compared to consensus estimate of 26.2% (-350bps YoY) and was better than the consensus estimate of 23.9%. In Q3 Richter recorded HUF 9...
- Gabor Bukta
Not a quality report, but we see the positives
Waberer’s reported its Q3/23 results today, where the Company achieved a quarterly EBIT of EUR 8.0mn. Net income came in at EUR 0.5mn, down 87% YoY on unfavourable FX movements. RCL and the insurance segments continued to perform well, but the ITS segment experienced a slowdown on the spot market. All in all, this is not a quality report, but we focus on the positives and mid-term targets. The Company will publish its Group-wide strategy later this year and introduce an employee shareholder pr...
- Gabor Bukta
Driving on a sustainable growth path
We remain Buy-rated on Waberer’s and we massively increase our 2023 e-o-y TP to 4,800 HUF/sh from 3,990 HUF/sh, implying an 87% upside potential. Structural improvements, sustainable profitability and conscious growth together underpin our view that Waberer’s is dirt cheap and one of the most undervalued growth stocks in the CEE region. Waberer’s trades at a FY24 P/E of 3.6x and EV/EBITDA of 3.2x, on our estimates. Waberer’s achieved a record semi-annual profit in the first half of 2023 as all...
- Gabor Bukta
The last call to believe in life beyond HGBs
We made some changes to our estimates after the outstanding Q2 report. As a result, welift our 12-m ex-div TP to 2,490 HUF/sh from 2,450 HF/sh, as well as our gross DPSexpectation to HUF 214 from HUF 189. The stock offers roughly 60% upside potential ona 12-month time horizon. We reiterate our Buy recommendation. As known, ANY posted a net profit of HUF 1.5bn for the first half of 2023, thanks to theexceptionally high Q2 net of HUF 1bn. Even though this translated into a roughly 9% YoYdrop, ear...
- Gabor Bukta
Outstanding H1 EPS could spur DPS expectations
ANY Security Printing Co. posted a net profit of HUF 1,021mn (+86% YoY) onnet sales of HUF 15.0bn (+28% YoY) for Q2/23, boosted by the extraordinary contributionof export sales. H1 net profit came in at HUF 1.5bn vs HUF 1.6bn a year ago (-9% YoY),but the base period was favourably affected by the pent-up demand for personaldocuments, as well as the additional income from election ballots. During Q2, ANYbenefitted from the launch of the enormous Angolan project and other export projects,which tog...
- Gabor Bukta
Waberer’s raised EBIT guidance after record Q2 earnings
Waberer’s reported its Q2/23 results yesterday, where the Company achieved recordquarterly EBIT of EUR 14.3mn. Net income came in at EUR 15.1 mn (6x of Q2/22). All threebusiness segments continued to increase their profitability on both a quarterly and halfyearly basis. At EBIT level, results were positively distorted by the impact of the out-ofcourt settlement, which was announced earlier this year, while net level was also favourablyaffected by a non-realized FX gain of EUR 4.7mn. As a resul...
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