reports
- Gabor Bukta
Halfway out of the turbulence
Summary We leave our TP at 20.0 GBP and reiterate our Buy recommendation, reflecting the ongoing restructuring story. Following the fiscal Q3/26 conference call held on 29 January, we repeatedly concluded that the fruitful strategic overhaul is under way. The management is building back confidence, so that’s good news for value investors. The problem is that they have to manage high-capacity growth (+24% seats and +30% ASK) during fiscal Q2/27. Key question remains how the market will be able ...
- Gabor Bukta
OTP - No Surprise In Q3, Guidance Unchanged, TP Lifted
Q3/25 adj. profit came slighly ahead of consensus at HUF 330bn and showed c.2% QoQ positive dynamics on an FX-adjusted basis despite special one-offs having boosted Q2 results. Trends in core banking revenues also came in-line with expectations. NIM stayed flat and NF&C grew by 2% QoQ also on FX adjusted basis, buoyed by the increase in HU, BG and UZB. However, the FV adjustment to the Hungarian subsidized loan portfolio added HUF 8bn in other incomes in Q3, which was indeed also expected o...
- Gabor Bukta
RICHTER GEDEON - Q3 Disappoints, FY25 Guidance Cut, TP Cut
Richter posted disappointing Q3/25 results today morning. The Company missed analysts’ estimates on all lines and maybe in all business units. Revenues missed by 7% and came in at HUF 214bn (-1% YoY, -11% QoQ), while the net profit fell short of expectations by 22%, reaching only HUF 43bn (+17% YoY, -16% YoY). Innovative business units, including CNS and WHC, continued to perform well thanks to the eyecatching growth of Vraylar and Ryeqo, however, they also missed our cEBIT forecast by only...
- Gabor Bukta
Record Q clean EBIT overshadowed by one-offs
Summary: Richter posted its Q2/25 results today morning. The Company beat analysts’ estimates in terms of revenues by +3% and clean EBIT by +8%, while net profit for Q2 missed estimates by -6%, but we pointed out after Abbvie’s Q2 report that the consensus may have underestimated the value-add of CNS. Quarterly clean EBIT amounted to a record of HUF 79.6bn, but net profit reached HUF 51.8bn. It was shaped by one-offs, which overall dragged on earnings. On the one hand, higher-than expected ...
- Gabor Bukta
5% beat on higher incomes but higher risk costs
Summary: Adj. net income came to HUF 330bn in Q2/25, a 5% beat compared to consensus estimate of HUF 314bn, a touch below our street-high HUF333bn estimate, which was attributable to higher-than-expected total incomes. OPEX was fully in-line, while the provisioning was exceptionally high, up 44% YoY to HUF 67bn in Q2. The management provided an updated guidance for 2025. They now expect to reach a CIR of “closer to 41.3% reported in 2024” compared to “somewhat higher than that”, while the r...
- Gabor Bukta
Restructuring story may rebuild confidence
Summary: We raise our target price from 17.0 GBP to 20.0 GBP and reiterate our Buy recommendation, reflecting the promise of a restructuring story. Following the fiscal Q1/26 conference call held on 24 July, we concluded that a major structural change is under way, which the market should welcome. The management might be on the right track to build confidence in investors. Wizz Air’s CEO stressed to refocus on core CEE markets and announced to cut capacity growth prospects. It was crucial ...
- Gabor Bukta
Turnaround is distant, but shares are overly punished
We have significantly reduced our forecasts following Wizz Air’s early June financial report, which fell short of expectations. Moreover, the company published guidance for next year that also came in below expectations for key performance indicators. The stock’s poor performance comes as no surprise, as a growing number of investors are questioning the credibility and preparedness of the management. We have lowered our target price from 22.1 GBP to 17.0 GBP, while maintaining our Buy recommenda...
- Gabor Bukta
Positive financial impact was underestimated in Q1
Richter posted its Q1/25 results today morning. The Company beat analysts’ estimates in terms of net profit, while revenues and clean EBIT matched expectations. On the bottom line, the beat was attributed to significant FX gains of HUF 11bn (o/w HUF 14.0bn was unrealized). Richter generated an outstanding FCF of HUF 60bn in Q1 despite that we expected that the normalization in payables may drag on this figure. The management reiterated its guidance as they see both revenues and clean EBIT to gro...
- Gabor Bukta
Marginal beat in Q1 driven by higher revenues
OTP’s reported net income came to HUF 189bn in Q1/25, beating the consensus estimate of HUF 184bn by 3% due to better-than-expect total income. 2025 guidance has been left fully unchanged by the management, but the current consensus may not reflect the full potential for 2025. Our 2025 net profit estimate is 9% above the consensus. We roll over to Jun-26 and raise our TP by HUF 30,955, implying a 26% total return upside potential including the dividends after 2024 (c. HUF 1000 adj. for treasury...
- Gabor Bukta
Guidance beat, trends remain unchanged in Q4
Key message: Waberer’s reported a consolidated EBIT for 2024 of EUR 45.0mn, which translates into a 5% increase compared to 2023. As a result, the management delivered its full-year EBIT guidance of EUR 40mn+. The report lacked forward looking statements but Waberer’s will hold an Investor Day on Friday.
- Gabor Bukta
The Art of Deal: OMV secures an advantageous merger deal with ADNOC
We have revised our target price for OMV, after the successful merger with ADNOC regarding the combination of Borealis and Borouge. The agreed terms are highly favourable for OMV. Accordingly, we raise our 2025 year-end ex-dividend target price from EUR 42.6 to EUR 50.0, implying an upside potential of 25.0%. The merger will result in the deconsolidation of Borealis from OMV's financial statements, with its stake in the newly formed entity will be reported as an equity-accounted investment. At ...
- Gabor Bukta
Q4 fully in-line, ’25 guidance is a big surprise
OTP’s reported net income came to HUF 250bn in Q4, which was fully in line both with our and consensus estimate. OTP may propose a DPS of HUF 964, which broadly matches our forecast of HUF 962, while the management intends to continue the SBB program. More importantly, 2025 guidance will surprise the market to the upside, and we expect a net profit of HUF 1,167bn. As a result, we raise our Dec-25 TP by 7% to HUF 30,175, implying a 22% upside including the dividends.
- Gabor Bukta
2025 guidance matches our estimates
In brief, Richter posted a better-than-expected net income for Q4 and 2024 today morning as it reported PAT of 64bn. Positive one-offs affected EBIT, but we are very disappointed due to the surge in OPEX, especially in the WHC and GM segments, which may leave some room for further improvements this year. 2025 guidance matches our forecasts in EUR terms.
- Gabor Bukta
Model update – EPS surprise on the horizon for ‘25
TP is rolled over to Dec-25 and raised to 28,245 HUF/sh before 2024 earnings, scheduled for 7 March, implying a 18% TR upside potential incl. a DPS of HUF 960. This reflects that NII and NF&C growth may surprise to the upside in 2025. However, given the limited upside potential, we downgrade our recommendation to Accumulate from Buy. We assume that OTP will pay out 25% of 2024 profit this year, offering a DivY of 3.9% at Friday’s closing price. OTP is currently running its 3rd HUF 60bn SBB ...
- Gabor Bukta
A strong Buy-rating on the inflection point
We raise our Dec-25 ex-div TP to HUF 14,050. This implies an upside potential of 41% including a gross DPS of HUF 533. Richter is on our conviction list as the stock, we think, offers the best R/R among the regional blue chips we cover. The de-escalation of the RU-UKR war or peace talks between the two assisted by the US and the EU should work as a tailwind while concerns over lower Vraylar sales is priced in, in our view. The higher TP reflects a decrease in our fair value estimate for ...
- Gabor Bukta
Model update - RASK improves, but the FX distorts
Wizz Air will report its fiscal Q3/25 earnings on the 30th of January BMO. We expect the PAT to come in at EUR -206mn, driven by a significant FX revaluation loss of EUR 200mn on the back of USD appreciation. EBIT may come in at EUR 4mn in fiscal Q3, up by EUR 184mn compared to a year ago, resulting from a mix of RASK improvement and fuel cost savings. We roll-over our TP to Mar-26 and set it at GBP 22.1 a share, implying an upside potential of 59%
- Gabor Bukta
Guidance maintained after a strong Q3 despite Polish Link weighing on ...
Key message: Waberer’s reported Q3 consolidated EBIT of EUR 10.1mn, which translates into a 26% increase compared to the same period last year. The company maintained fullyear EBIT guidance of EUR 40mn+ while clarified its revenue guidance at EUR 770-780 mn. ITS became unprofitable again on EBIT level (EUR -1.9mn) due to the unfavourable tax policy changes affecting the segment’s polish subsidiary (LINK). As a result, the company decided to implement a strategic change in LINK’s operations, ...
- Gabor Bukta
Guidance unchanged, clean EBIT beat estimates
Summary: Richter posted its Q3/24 results today morning. The Company matched the consensus for revenues at HUF 217bn, while the clean EBIT beat estimates by 3% as it came in at HUF 75bn. However, normal EBIT of HUF 64bn and net profit of HUF 37bn fell short of even our depressed expectation as an inventory impairment (HUF 9bn), provision (HUF 5bn) and an unrealized FX loss (HUF 20.8bn) dragged down earnings. The management fully reiterated its 2024 guidance. They continue to guide revenues ...
- Gabor Bukta
Medium quality beat despite a record adj. quarter
OTP beat analysts’ expectations this morning when it reported Q3/24 earnings. Net profit came in at HUF 318.5bn, up 13% and 19% QoQ, a beat of 10% vs. the consensus, driven by higherthan-expected NII (+1% vs. cons) and net other incomes (+29% YoY), which also exceeded the market expectations by 29%. As we flagged out yesterday morning, this line is the less predictable and we believed that we might have significantly underestimated the power of other revenue streams, e.g. revaluation gains. ...
- Gabor Bukta
Revenue trends uphold strong profitability
We have revised our financial model to incorporate the most recent management updates, which may likely lead to further consensus upgrades. We roll over and raise our 2025-YE ex-div target price to EUR 61.1 from EUR 55.3, implying a 26% TR upside potential including a DPS of EUR 3 over the TP period.
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