We expect Q1 adj. EBITA to beat Infront consensus by 10%. However, Ericsson’s challenges for 2025e are mounting: 1) gross margin headwinds (key for its share price); 2) faded earnings and FCF momentum with -2% adj. EBITA and -40% FCF growth YOY forecasts after a strong 2024; 3) a low likelihood of share buybacks in 2025, despite its overcapitalisation; and 4) the potential CEO succession could create a wait-and-see scenario. We have lowered our 2025e adj. EPS by 18% (mainly FX) and reiterate our...
Ericsson stock faced a high bar into Q4 earnings, and while headline adj. EBITA fell short of lofty expectations, we view it as a useful building block for the medium-term margin case. As we believe the share price now captures the near-term outlook, we have downgraded to HOLD (BUY), having lowered our target price to SEK93 (100) and cut our 2025e adj. EBITA by 4%.
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