Ericsson (Buy, TP: SEK70.00) -

Despite a delay in our mix-driven earnings and FCF rebound case, Ericsson’s Q1 gross margin showed early signs of trends we believe should accelerate through 2024 and ultimately drive Infront consensus EPS revisions closer to our full-year adj. EBITA (17% above consensus), potentially triggering a re-rating. In our view, Ericsson’s soft market outlook commentary and implicit Q2 guidance should be seen in light of its ongoing union negotiations in Sweden amid lay-offs. We reiterate our BUY and SE...

ODDO BHF SECURITIES MORNING NEWS – DETAILED COMMENTS 04/17/2024

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ODDO BHF SECURITIES MORNING NEWS – COMMENTAIRES DETAILLES 17/04/2024

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Ericsson : Uncertainties persist in 2024, but an improvement in margin...

>Underperform rating maintained, target price raised to SEK 52 vs SEK 50 - Following the publication of Q1 2024 results, we have raised our forecast for 2024 EPS by 7%, and our target price to SEK 52 vs SEK 50. The market and the timing of the recovery remains very uncertain. Furthermore, the group has not yet settled its cases with the US DoJ, meaning the threat of a further fine still hangs over it. Based on our new estimates, the valuation is relatively undemanding...

Ericsson : Les incertitudes persistent en 2024, mais amélioration des ...

>Opinion Sous-performance maintenue, OC relevé à 52 SEK vs 50 SEK - Suite à la publication des résultats T1 24, nous relevons notre BPA 2024e de 7%, ainsi que notre OC à 52 SEK vs 50 SEK. Le marché et le timing de sa reprise reste très incertain. De surcroit, le groupe n’a pas encore réglé ses affaires juridiques avec le DoJ Américain, laissant peser la menace d’une amende supplémentaire. Sur la base de nos nouvelles estimations, la valorisation est assez peu exigeant...

Ericsson 1Q24: Revenues stabilizing, margins improving: are we approac...

ODDO BHF SECURITIES MORNING NEWS – DETAILED COMMENTS 04/16/2024

We are initiating coverage of the mining equipment segment with Metso on Outperform, Sandvik on Neutral and Epiroc on Underperform. We have adopted a cautious scenario with demand stable or slightly up in the short term (mining business sales up +3% on average between 2024 and 2026), pending positive signals indicating a rebound in greenfield investments (not before 2027, in our view). In this scenario, we think that Metso should confirm the progress achieved in 2023 (margin improveme...

ODDO BHF SECURITIES MORNING NEWS – COMMENTAIRES DETAILLES 16/04/2024

Nous initions le segment des équipementiers miniers avec Metso à Surperformance, Sandvik à Neutre et Epiroc à Sous-performance. Nous adoptons un scénario prudent avec une demande stable ou en légère hausse à court terme (CA des activités minières en hausse moyenne de 3% entre 2024 et 2026), dans l’attente de signaux positifs indiquant un rebond des investissements greenfield (pas avant 2027 selon nous). Dans ce scénario, nous estimons que Metso devrait confirmer les progrès réalisés e...

Ericsson 1Q24: Revenues stabilizing, margins improving: are we approac...

Ericsson reported 1Q24 this morning.

Ericsson : Better than expected margins in Q1 with few one-time elemen...

>Q1 2024 results > expectations thanks to Networks (IPR contract) and a one off - This morning, Ericsson reported Q1 2024 results that were above expectations thanks to a better-than-expected margin in Networks (44.3% vs 40.6%) notably linked to an IPR contract signed with some retroactivity of SEK3.1bn and a one-time gain of SEK 1.9bn. Revenues were SEK 53.3bn, below the consensus of SEK 54.7bn, down 15% organically. The adjusted gross margin was 42.7%, above the con...

Ericsson : Better than expected margins in Q1 with few one-time elemen...

>Q1 2024 results > expectations thanks to Networks (IPR contract) and a one off - This morning, Ericsson reported Q1 2024 results that were above expectations thanks to a better-than-expected margin in Networks (44.3% vs 40.6%) notably linked to an IPR contract signed with some retroactivity of SEK3.1bn and a one-time gain of SEK 1.9bn. Revenues were SEK 53.3bn, below the consensus of SEK 54.7bn, down 15% organically. The adjusted gross margin was 42.7%, above the con...

CQ1'24 Preliminary Results

Ericsson (Buy, TP: SEK70.00) - Rebound case pushed back

The steep slowdown in India deployments, postponed recovery in the US profit centre, another round of layoffs, and a new CFO leaves our Q1e adjusted EBITA 13% below post-Q4 Infront consensus and raises the risk of another reduction in consensus EPS. We reiterate our BUY but have cut our target price to SEK70 (76), having lowered our 2024–2025e EPS by 7–5% as we still see an attractive risk/reward story for H2e, with the share price reflecting much negative news (close to five-year lows) on posit...

The Tech Infrastructure Quarterly Bible 4Q23

We publish today our comprehensive quarterly bible: 212 pages of detailed analyses on what happened in the last 3 months, and how we interpret it, in light of our current convictions. The first section acts as a PM summary, outlining our key findings, and latest thoughts on the semi cycle, in 6 slides:

ODDO BHF SECURITIES MORNING NEWS – DETAILED COMMENTS 03/11/2024

Our 8th TMT Forum, held again in virtual format, was attended by 46 listed companies and around 399 investors (+30%). The tone was generally upbeat, with key markets still showing positive momentum, notably in advertising. For semiconductors, the exposure to AI is positive, the rest is more muted. In IT Services, business has remained weak QTD. Nevertheless, clients are constructive and committed to their digital transformation. On telecoms, there was confirmation most markets are ret...

ODDO BHF SECURITIES MORNING NEWS – COMMENTAIRES DETAILLES 11/03/2024

Our 8th TMT Forum, held again in virtual format, was attended by 46 listed companies and around 399 investors (+30%). The tone was generally upbeat, with key markets still showing positive momentum, notably in advertising. For semiconductors, the exposure to AI is positive, the rest is more muted. In IT Services, business has remained weak QTD. Nevertheless, clients are constructive and committed to their digital transformation. On telecoms, there was confirmation most markets are ret...

Ericsson : No signs of recovery as of yet

>Underlying market still down - At our 2024 TMT forum, Ericsson was represented by Alan Ganson (IR). The group did not deny the lack of visibility on 2024, notably on H1. The global RAN market is likely to decline by 4% according to DellOro, with Europe down 2%, China down 7% and the US down 17%. The group remains upbeat on Open RAN opportunities, notably after the contract gain with AT&T in the US. The contract is for a period of 5 years and is worth € 14bn. Ericsso...

Ericsson : Pas encore de signes de reprises

>Un marché sous-jacent encore en baisse - Durant notre forum TMT 2024, Ericsson était représenté par Alan Ganson (IR). Le groupe n’a pas nié le manque de visibilité sur 2024 notamment sur le S1. Le marché global du RAN devrait baisser de 4% selon DellOro, avec l’Europe en baisse de 2%, la Chine de 7% et les Etats-Unis de 17%. Le groupe reste optimiste sur les opportunités de Open Ran notamment après le gain du contrat avec l’opérateur AT&T aux USA. Le contrat est d’u...

Bible 4Q23 - Service Provider Infrastructure: Brutal downcycle across ...

Today, we are publishing the Service Provider Equipment section of our 22nd Tech Infrastructure Quarterly Bible. The Tech Bible is a must-read for any tech investor, as it summarizes the quarterly earnings reports from the over 130 companies we track, providing an update on our key perspectives and convictions. The entire value chain, from fixed and mobile equipment down to telco semis, is experiencing a sharp slowdown, driven by inventory corrections and a decline following the peak of the 5G c...

Wedbush Morning Call - Feb 08 2024 6:55AM