For 1H25, we expect major SOE PM companies’ businesses to be largely on track. CGS sees higher revenue growth but faces a margin decline, OCF pressures, and high impairment risks, which could delay its recovery. Maintain UNDERWEIGHT for the sector. Amid slowing residential contract growth but steady retail sales, CR Mixc is favoured over COPH. Raise all PM companies’ target prices due to lower WACC and maintain ratings.
For 2024 results, we observed a generally stable business, with higher dividend payout ratios reflecting sustained profitability for PM companies. The divergence between SOEs and POEs was more pronounced. PM companies have softened their 2025 growth targets and the lower impairment risk of CGS is a noteworthy positive development. Maintain MARKET WEIGHT on China’s property management sector. Top picks: COPH, CR Mixc.
CGS’ core attributable net profit decreased 22.9% yoy to Rmb3,038m, with 32.5% paid out as dividends. In 2024, CGS saw stable core business and ongoing contraction in the commercial business and city services. Goodwill/receivables impairments significantly dropped 59.4% yoy, and CGS showed stronger cash generating abilities. Management targets continuously increasing dividend levels and plans to repurchase shares. We upgrade to HOLD with a higher target price of Rmb5.60.
KEY HIGHLIGHTS Results China Mengniu Dairy (2319 HK/BUY/HK$19.50/Target: HK$23.60) Mengniu’s 2024 core profit decreased by 8% yoy, in line with the profit warning. However, operating margin expansion beat expectations. Looking ahead, the company expects low single-digit revenue growth in 2025, with operating margin remaining stable. In the next three years, it aims to improve operating margin by 30-50bp on average annually. Dividend payout ratio was raised to 45% in 2024. Management targets bo...
GREATER CHINA Results China Mengniu Dairy (2319 HK/BUY/HK$19.50/Target: HK$23.60) 2024: Results in line with profit warning; operating margin beat; targeting low single digit revenue growth for 2025. China Merchants Bank (3968 HK/HOLD/HK$45.90/Target: HK$49.00) 2024: Improving fundamentals but valuation is no longer attractive; downgrade to HOLD. China Overseas Property Holdings (2669 HK/BUY/HK$5.47/Target: HK$6.80) ...
The property market marginally cooled down mom in Jan 25. We had pre-blackout calls with COLI/CR Land/COPH. For developers, we expect CR Land to report relatively resilient earnings in 2024 (-7% yoy) while COLI may see more margin pressure in 2H24. COPH is projected to see weaker-than-expected VAS revenue growth but margin improvement. Maintain OVERWEIGHT on the China property sector and MARKET WEIGHT on the China property management sector. Top picks: CR Land and COPH.
We conducted channel checks on CR Mixc/PPS/CGS recently on their operational performance in 2024. CR Mixc is largely on track to achieve its target. PPS’ performance is below our expectations. We expect CGS to see a slight positive revenue growth and improved cashflow. For the sector, we have observed a common problem of worse cash collection. Maintain MARKET WEIGHT. Trim earnings and target prices. COPH remains our top pick, due to its high proportion of the counter-cyclical basic PM segment.
GREATER CHINA Sector Automobile Weekly: PV sales down 10% yoy but up 8.5% wow; EVs gain on subsidy rollout. Maintain MARKET WEIGHT. Top BUYs: Geely, CATL, Fuyao and Desay. Healthcare The challenging but rewarding journey of globalisation amid rising geopolitical risks. Internet ...
GREATER CHINA Sector Property and Property Management Encouraging property sales during Golden Week; watching policy implementation and improvement in fundamentals in 4Q24. INDONESIA Asian Gems Corporate Highlights Bank Central Asia (BBCA IJ/BUY/Rp10,450/Target: Rp12,000) Plenty of room to grow. Bank Negara Indonesia (BBNI IJ/BUY/Rp5,325/Target: Rp6,560) Aspires to book 20% ROE in 2028. MALAYSIA Asian Gems Corporate Hi...
In 1H24, property management companies saw moderate growth in GFA and revenue, driven by basic PM services, but profitability was pressured by declining noncommunity VAS. The divergence between SOEs and POEs is more pronounced. SOEs are cautious about 2H24 due to limited contract expansion. POEs continue to face business deterioration. Maintain MARKET WEIGHT on China’s property management sector. Top pick is COPH for its counter-cyclical business model.
GREATER CHINA Strategy Alpha Picks: September Conviction Calls: We expect an improving operating performance among selected companies in September, and add AIA, COLI, Desay SV, Galaxy Entertainment, Meituan, Ping An and TUL to our BUY list and add Li Auto as a SELL. INDONESIA Strategy Alpha Picks: Trailing The JCI’s Strong Performance In Aug 24: Our picks are ICBP, TOWR, BBNI, BMRI, BBRI, EXCL, CTRA, BBTN, CMRY, SIDO and JSMR. MALAYSIA Strategy Alpha Picks: Adapting To A Bipolar Market: Our Al...
CGS’ 1H24 core net profit dropped 31.7% yoy, in line with profit warning. No interim dividend was declared. CGS’ business continued to deteriorate, as evidenced by: a) slide in strategic businesses, b) very weak expansion capacity in newly-signed contracts, c) high risk of goodwill/receivables impairment, and d) only 0.2x ratio of OCF/net profit. Management reiterated its commitment of share buyback and dividend payout. Trim target price by 28.2% to HK$3.70. Maintain SELL.
KEY HIGHLIGHTS Results AAC Technologies (2018 HK/BUY/HK$31.25/Target: HK$38.10) AAC’s 1H24 earnings grew 257% yoy to Rmb537m, significantly exceeding our and consensus estimates. The strong growth was mainly driven by an all-around beat in gross margins across all business segments amid better end-demand, specs upgrades and a competitive landscape. Going forward, the product mix improvements, AI smartphone upgrades, and automotive business will continue to drive earnings recovery from 2H24-2...
GREATER CHINA Results AAC Technologies (2018 HK/BUY/HK$31.25/Target: HK$38.10): 1H24: Solid beat on margins; multiple growth trends through 2H24-2026. Upgrade to BUY. AIA Group (1299 HK/BUY/ HK$54.45/Target: HK$91.00): 1H24: Strong beat in results; eyeing 9-11% three-year CAGR for OPAT per share. Baidu Inc (9888 HK/BUY/HK$86.45/Target: HK$110.00): 2Q24: Earnings beat; modest online ad growth; solid AI cloud revenue growth. Country Garden Services (6098 HK/SELL/HK$4.15/Target: HK$3.70): 1H24: Exp...
GREATER CHINA Strategy Alpha Picks: August Conviction Calls: We expect stimulus to be announced in August and add COSCO Shipping Ports, Haier Smart Home, and KE Holdings to our BUY list and add SELL call on WuXi Bio, and XPeng. INDONESIA Strategy Alpha Picks: Underperformance in Jul 24: Our picks are BBNI, BMRI, BBRI, EXCL, CTRA, BBTN, CMRY, SIDO and JSMR. MALAYSIA Strategy Alpha Picks: Raising The M&A And Monetisation Bets: Our Alpha Picks marginally beat the KLCI. Jul 24 picks: Ekovest, Gamu...
For 1H24, we expect major SOE PM companies’ businesses to be largely on track. Despite pressure on VAS from further contraction of the property market and weak consumption sentiment, PM companies continued to drive high-quality expansion of core business and stayed diligent in cost control. Maintain MARKET WEIGHT. Trim earnings and target prices to reflect pressure on VAS. We changed our top pick from PPS to COPH as it has higher potential for a rise in dividend payout ratio.
GREATER CHINA Strategy Alpha Picks: July Conviction Call: Adding ASMPT, Innovent, Poly Property Services, TAL Education and Trip.com to our BUY list; hedging with SELL call on BYD. INDONESIA Strategy Alpha Picks: Outperformance In Jun 24 And 2Q24: Our picks are BMRI, BBRI, EXCL, BSDE, TLKM, ACES, BBTN, CMRY, SIDO and JSMR. MALAYSIA Strategy Alpha Picks: Opting For More Adventurous Choices: Our Alpha Picks beat the KLCI again. Jul 24 picks: BURSA, Ekovest, Gamuda, Lagenda, Mah Sing, MYEG, Pekat...
GREATER CHINA Strategy Alpha Picks: June Conviction Call: Adding KE Holdings and Wharf REIC to our BUY list; hedging with SELL call on BYD. INDONESIA Strategy Alpha Picks: First Month Of Underperformance In 2024: Our picks are EXCL, BSDE, TLKM, ACES, BBTN, CMRY, SIDO and JSMR. MALAYSIA Strategy Alpha Picks: Choices For A “Summer Lull”: Our Alpha Picks trounce the KLCI again. May 24 picks: BAUTO, BURSA, Gamuda, GENM, Lagenda, Mah Sing, MYEG, PMETAL, RGB, and VSI. SINGAPORE Strategy Alpha Picks...
GREATER CHINA Strategy Alpha Picks: May Conviction Call: Adding CR Beer, Crystal, Geely, Haier, Kuaishou, Ningbo Tuopu, Pinduoduo, Shenzhou, and Tencent to our BUY list, closing out SELL calls. INDONESIA Strategy Alpha Picks: Slight Outperformance In A Bear Market: Our picks are BSDE, TLKM, ACES, BBTN, CMRY, SIDO, JSMR and AKRA. MALAYSIA Strategy Alpha Picks: Well-Positioned For 1Q Results Season: Our April picks again beat the KLCI. May 24 picks: GENM, Inari, Mah Sing, MrDIY, MYEG, Press Meta...
For 2023 results, the decline in non-community VAS revenue raised concerns while higher dividend payout ratio showed the profitability sustainability for PM companies. The divergence between SOEs and POEs is more pronounced in the business segment. SOEs lower their growth targets and impairment loss will continue to be major concerns for POEs. Maintain MARKET WEIGHT on China’s property management sector. Top picks: PPS & CR Mixc.
Unfortunately, this report is not available for the investor type or country you selected.
Report is subscription only.
Thank you, your report is ready.
Thank you, your report is ready.