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Julia Pan Mengyao ... (+2)
  • Julia Pan Mengyao
  • Ming San Soong

Tongcheng Travel Holdings (780 HK): 1Q25: Earnings beat; well on track...

TT reported intact 1Q25 results, with revenue growing 13.2% yoy to Rmb4.4b, in line with the consensus estimate. Adjusted net profit rose 41% yoy to Rmb788m, beating the consensus estimate by 7.0% and above the previously guided Rmb700m-750m. Non-IFRS net margin was largely flattish yoy at 15.6% in 1Q25. 2Q25 revenue is guided to grow 7.0-12% yoy, while adjusted net profit is guided at Rmb700m-750m for 2Q25. Maintain BUY with an unchanged target price of HK$25.00.

Ejann Hiew ... (+6)
  • Ejann Hiew
  • Greater China Research Team
  • Julia Pan Mengyao
  • Ming San Soong
  • Shirley Wang Xueyi
  • Stella Guo Yuting

Greater China Daily: Monday, May 26, 2025

KEY HIGHLIGHTS Results Miniso (MNSO US/BUY/US$18.29/US$26.60) Miniso's 1Q25 revenue beat management’s guidance but margin was under pressure due to ongoing investments in DTC stores and higher revenue contribution from lower-margin DTC stores. Management expects 2Q25 revenue to grow 18-21% and remains confident about achieving accelerated revenue growth in 2025, thanks to continued SSS recovery. However, uncertainties still remain on the margin side, due to the rapid expansion of DTC stores in...

Adrian Loh Tzum Yung ... (+13)
  • Adrian Loh Tzum Yung
  • Chong Lee Len
  • Ejann Hiew
  • Heidi Mo Jinghui
  • Julia Pan Mengyao
  • Kasemsun Koonnara
  • Llelleythan Tan Tan
  • Ming San Soong
  • Philip Wong
  • Roy Chen Chengzhi
  • Shirley Wang Xueyi
  • Stella Guo Yuting
  • Willinoy Sitorus

Regional Morning Meeting Notes - Monday, May 26, 2025

GREATER CHINA Results Miniso (MNSO US/BUY/US$18.29/US$26.60): 1Q25: Revenue beats guidance but margin under pressure; expect DTC store expansion to be a near-term headwind on margin. Tongcheng Travel Holdings (780 HK/BUY/HK$20.50/Target: HK$25.00): 1Q25: Earnings beat; well on track for margin improvement in 2025. INDONESIA Update Indofood CBP (ICBP IJ/BUY/Rp10,825/Target: Rp13,800): Remains a solid defensive stock with undemanding valuation. MALAYSIA Results Oriental Kopi Holdings (KOPI MK/BU...

Julia Pan Mengyao ... (+2)
  • Julia Pan Mengyao
  • Ming San Soong

China Online Travel Agencies: Travel data preview: Expecting a vibrant...

We saw continuous vitality in cultural and tourism consumption based on 1Q25 travel data and Labour Day travel data projections. Key travellers’ preference trends during Labour Day 2025 will be long-haul travel, inbound tourism and county-level travel. With favourable policy support such as the implementation of "instant tax refunds" for outbound travel, we expect to see promising revenue and earnings growth from OTA companies in 1H25. Maintain OVERWEIGHT.

Julia Pan Mengyao ... (+2)
  • Julia Pan Mengyao
  • Ming San Soong

China Internet: Navigating headwinds and uncovering opportunities upon...

Chinese internet companies’ share prices have dropped 10-30% mtd following the implementation of incremental tariffs from the US. Chinese internet companies have limited business exposure to the US except for PDD’s Temu. However, the 34% tariffs announced by China on all US imports could have potential implications for China mega-caps’ AI capex in relation to US chip imports. We prefer domestic-focused plays which stand to benefit from domestic policy stimuli, with Southbound inflow to be a key ...

Jo Yee Ng ... (+9)
  • Jo Yee Ng
  • Julia Pan Mengyao
  • Keith Wee Teck Keong
  • Kitpon Praipaisarnkit
  • Ming San Soong
  • Paula Ruth
  • Roy Chen Chengzhi
  • Tanaporn Visaruthaphong
  • Thailand Research Team

Regional Morning Meeting Notes: Wednesday, April 09, 2025

GREATER CHINA Sector Internet Navigating headwinds and uncovering opportunities upon tariff pressures. INDONESIA Update Erajaya Swasembada (ERAA IJ/BUY/Rp348/Target: Rp480) Iphone 16 series to be available in 2Q25. Maintain BUY. MALAYSIA Update Matrix Concepts Holdings (MCH MK/BUY/RM1.27/Target: RM1.66) We view the RPT deal as fair and strategic as the acquisition allows Matrix to see faster ro...

Julia Pan Mengyao ... (+2)
  • Julia Pan Mengyao
  • Ming San Soong

Tongcheng Travel Holdings (780 HK): 4Q24: Solid earnings beat and top-...

TT reported resilient 4Q24 results, with revenue growing 34.8% yoy to Rmb4.2b, 5% above consensus estimate. Adjusted net profit rose 36.8% yoy to Rmb660m, beating consensus estimate by 7% and above the previous guidance of Rmb580m-630m. Non- IFRS net margin was 15.6% in 4Q24 vs 15.3% in 4Q23. 1Q25 revenue is expected to grow 11-15% yoy, in line with consensus forecast. Adjusted net profit is guided at Rmb700m- 750m for 1Q25. Maintain BUY with a slightly lower target price of HK$22.00.

Bella Lu Yifei ... (+12)
  • Bella Lu Yifei
  • Carol Dou Xiao Qin
  • Colin Lee
  • Gigi Cheuk
  • Greater China Research Team
  • Johnny Yum Chung Man
  • Julia Pan Mengyao
  • Kate Luang
  • Ken Lee
  • Kenny Yong Hui Lim
  • Ming San Soong
  • Sunny Chen

Greater China Daily: Friday, March 21, 2025

KEY HIGHLIGHTS Results AAC Technologies (2018 HK/BUY/HK$52.05/Target: HK$57.70) AAC’s 2H24’s earnings grew 114% yoy which exceeded expectations, thanks to a solid beat in the precision mechanics business, although this was partially offset by weaker margins from the optics and MEMs businesses. Nevertheless, we continue to expect solid revenue growth and margin expansion in 2025, driven by increasing exposure from the automotive acoustics business and edge AI-related components. Upgrade to BUY ...

Adrian Loh Tzum Yung ... (+17)
  • Adrian Loh Tzum Yung
  • Arsit Pamaranont
  • Bella Lu Yifei
  • Carol Dou Xiao Qin
  • Colin Lee
  • Gigi Cheuk
  • Jack Goh Tooan Orng
  • Jo Yee Ng
  • Johnny Yum Chung Man
  • Julia Pan Mengyao
  • Kate Luang
  • Ken Lee
  • Kenny Yong Hui Lim
  • Ming San Soong
  • Posmarito Pakpahan
  • Sunny Chen
  • Willinoy Sitorus

Regional Morning Notes - Friday, March 21, 2025

GREATER CHINA Results AAC Technologies (2018 HK/BUY/HK$52.05/Target: HK$57.70): 2H24: Revenue and earnings beat; expect growth from auto and edge AI themes. Upgrade to BUY. Crystal International (2232 HK/BUY/HK$5.36/Target: HK$6.18): 2024: Record-high dividend payout; long-term wallet share gains intact. Geely Auto (175 HK/BUY/HK$18.24/Target: HK$29.00): 2024: Core earnings up 50% yoy, beating estimates. Maintain BUY. PDD Holdings (PDD US/BUY/US$125.92/Target: US$140.00): 4Q24: Earnings largely ...

Julia Pan Mengyao ... (+2)
  • Julia Pan Mengyao
  • Ming San Soong

China Internet: Online Travel Agencies -- Spring Festival 2025 propell...

We saw resilient enthusiasm for travel during the Spring Festival 2025, with a 6% yoy growth in the number of trips bolstered by domestic and cross border travel demand. We expect OTA companies’ earnings growth in 2025 to be anchored by cost optimisation with AIGC integration and lower-tier cities penetration, but offset by normalising airfare trends coupled with moderating hotel ADR (yoy decline). Maintain OVERWEIGHT.

Julia Pan Mengyao ... (+2)
  • Julia Pan Mengyao
  • Ming San Soong

China Internet: 1H25 outlook shaped by implications of fiscal stimuli ...

We saw largely in-line top-line growth across companies in 3Q24, mainly pressured by a lukewarm macro environment, but with earnings beat thanks to enhanced efficiency from AI integration. Alongside pending visibility on further domestic supportive policies, we believe the key 2025 highlights are: a) re-acceleration of e-commerce GMV growth, b) potential upside in ad take rate monetisation, c) rejuvenation of online games grossing, and d) sustained travel enthusiasm. Maintain MARKET WEIGHT.

Julia Pan Mengyao ... (+2)
  • Julia Pan Mengyao
  • Ming San Soong

Tongcheng Travel Holdings (780 HK): 3Q24: Earnings beat; poised for be...

TT reported resilient 3Q24 results, with revenue growing 51.3% yoy to Rmb4.2b, 3% above consensus estimate. Adjusted net profit rose 46.6% yoy to Rmb910m, beating consensus estimate by 11% and above the previous guidance of Rmb800m-850m. Non- IFRS net margin was 18.2% in 3Q24 vs 18.8% in 3Q23. 4Q24 revenue is expected to grow 25-30% yoy, 5% above consensus forecast. Adjusted net profit is guided at Rmb580m-630m for 4Q24. Upgrade to BUY with a higher target price of HK$20.00.

Adrian Loh Tzum Yung ... (+12)
  • Adrian Loh Tzum Yung
  • Bella Lu Yifei
  • Benjaphol Suthwanish
  • Desmond Chong Chee Wai
  • John Cheong Ming Chern
  • Jonathan Koh
  • Julia Pan Mengyao
  • Kampon Akaravarinchai
  • Ken Lee
  • Kong Ho Meng
  • Ming San Soong
  • Tanaporn Visaruthaphong

Regional Morning Meeting Notes: Wednesday, November 20, 2024

GREATER CHINA Results Kingsoft Corp (3888 HK/BUY/HK$29.20/Target: HK$40.00) 3Q24: Revenue and earnings beat; positive outlook for online games growth. Tongcheng Travel Holdings (780 HK/BUY/HK$17.70/Target: HK$20.00) 3Q24: Earnings beat; poised for better margin outlook in 2025. Upgrade to BUY. Trip.com (9961 HK/BUY/HK$505.00/Target: HK$640.00) 3Q24: Solid earnings beat; stepped up investment for interntational market share expansion. XPeng Inc...

Bella Lu Yifei ... (+5)
  • Bella Lu Yifei
  • Greater China Research Team
  • Julia Pan Mengyao
  • Ken Lee
  • Ming San Soong

Greater China Daily: Wednesday, November 20, 2024

KEY HIGHLIGHTS Results Kingsoft Corp (3888 HK/BUY/HK$29.20/Target: HK$40.00) Kingsoft delivered strong 3Q24 results, beating estimates. Revenue grew 17.8% yoy to Rmb2.9b, exceeding consensus estimate. Gross margin grew 3ppt yoy to 84.2%, in line with consensus expectation. Non-IFRS operating profit came in at Rmb1.2b while operating margin jumped 20ppt yoy to 41% on robust revenue growth. Net profit came in at Rmb413m, with net margin expanding 14ppt yoy to 18.4%. Maintain BUY with a slightly ...

Julia Pan Mengyao ... (+2)
  • Julia Pan Mengyao
  • Ming San Soong

China Internet: Key takeaways from marketing trip.

The key concerns of investors include the sustainability of the recent rally and potential fundamental changes upon policy rollout. We think a valuation repair is underway with the upcoming 11.11 campaign and 3Q/4Q24 results release as a critical juncture. Investors are also becoming increasingly optimistic on mega-cap names such as Tencent, Meituan, Alibaba and JD in view of a favourable regulatory backdrop and stabilised competitive environment. Maintain MARKET WEIGHT.

Julia Pan Mengyao ... (+2)
  • Julia Pan Mengyao
  • Ming San Soong

China Internet: Government policy rollout to boost consumption and dri...

In view of a stronger-than-expected government policy rollout, we reckon that the improved consumption sentiment will benefit e-commerce, local life services and OTA companies. In 2H24, we expect the undemanding valuations of internet companies to be repaired by shareholder returns, cross-border expansion and easing competition. Meanwhile, we believe monetisation momentum will be fuelled by AIGC development and adtech upgrades. Maintain MARKET WEIGHT.

Jonathan Koh ... (+9)
  • Jonathan Koh
  • Julia Pan Mengyao
  • Kampon Akaravarinchai
  • Kenny Yong Hui Lim
  • Ming San Soong
  • Shirley Wang Xueyi
  • Stella Guo Yuting
  • Stevanus Juanda
  • Wei Xiang Ku

Regional Morning Meeting Notes: Wednesday, October 09, 2024

GREATER CHINA Sector Consumer Golden Week: Tourism and home appliances the bright spots; refocus on China theme. Internet Government policy rollout to boost consumption and drive valuation repair. Update Hong Kong Exchanges and Clearing (388 HK/HOLD/HK$340.80/Target: HK$355.00) Further valuation re-rating requires more sustainable AD...

02313 SHENZHOU INTERNATIONAL GROUP HOLDINGS LIMITED
AS7 ANTA SPORTS PRODUCTS LTD.
00291 CHINA RESOURCES BEER (HOLDINGS) CO. LTD.
CPF CHAROEN POKPHAND FOODS PUBLIC CO. LTD.
600132 CHONGQING BREWERY CO.LTD CLASS A
000858 WULIANGYE YIBIN CO. LTD. CLASS A
00388 HONG KONG EXCHANGES & CLEARING LTD.
600809 SHANXI XINGHUACUN FEN WINE FACTORY CO. LTD. CLASS A
EZQ CHINA MENGNIU DAIRY CO. LTD.
02331 LI NING COMPANY LIMITED
3K1 KINGSOFT CORP. LTD.
002230 IFLYTEK CO. LTD. CLASS A
600519 KWEICHOW MOUTAI CO. LTD. CLASS A
600887 INNER MONGOLIA YILI INDUSTRIAL GROUP CO. LTD. CLASS A
00027 GALAXY ENTERTAINMENT GROUP LIMITED
600872 JONJEE HI-TECH INDUSTRIAL AND COMMERCIAL HOLDING CO. LTD. CLASS A
601888 CHINA TOURISM GROUP DUTY FREE CORPORATION LIMITED CLASS A
599A SANDS CHINA LTD.
000333 MIDEA GROUP CO. LTD. CLASS A
603288 FOSHAN HAITIAN FLAVOURING & FOOD CO. LTD. CLASS A
00700 TENCENT HOLDINGS LTD.
0168 TSINGTAO BREWERY CO. LTD. CLASS H
PDD PINDUODUO INC. SPONSORED ADR CLASS A
03690 MEITUAN CLASS B
06862 HAIDILAO INTERNATIONAL HOLDING LTD.
MUST MANULIFE US REAL ESTATE INV
00780 TONGCHENG-ELONG HOLDINGS LIMITED
TGIF 1933 INDUSTRIES
2013 WEIMOB INC
1368 XTEP INTERNATIONAL HOLDINGS
01876 BUDWEISER BREWING CO. APAC LTD.
6186 CHINA FEIHE LTD
09988 ALIBABA GROUP HOLDING LTD.
09999 NETEASE INC
OXMU PRIME US REIT
09618 JD.COM INC. CLASS A
KORE KEPPEL PACIFIC OAK US REIT
MNSO MINISO GROUP HOLDING ADS (N SHARES)
BUKA BUKALAPAK.COM PT TBK
01024 KUAISHOU TECHNOLOGY CLASS B
06690 HAIER SMART HOME CO. LTD. CLASS H
09922 JIUMAOJIU INTERNATIONAL HOLDINGS LTD.
09888 BAIDU INC
TSVT 2SEVENTY BIO INC
02423 KE HOLDINGS INC.
Z29 029 GROUP SE
09961 CTRIP.COM INTERNATIONAL
ITMAX ITMAX SYSTEMS BHD
Julia Pan Mengyao ... (+2)
  • Julia Pan Mengyao
  • Ming San Soong

China Internet: 2Q24 results wrap-up: Overall earnings beat; 2H24 outl...

2Q24 revenue growth was lukewarm, hampered by a subdued macro backdrop, but most earnings beats were delivered by internet companies. We expect consumers to continue switching to service- and experience-oriented, which will benefit OTA, local life services and online games amid the summer holiday period. Key catalysts in 2H24 that will drive internet companies’ valuation repair include shareholder returns, cross-border expansion, easing competition and more, in our view. Maintain MARKET WEIGHT.

Arsit Pamaranont ... (+12)
  • Arsit Pamaranont
  • Damon Shen
  • Desmond Chong Chee Wai
  • Heidi Mo Jinghui
  • Jieqi Liu
  • Julia Pan Mengyao
  • Kong Ho Meng
  • Llelleythan Tan Tan
  • Ming San Soong
  • Paula Ruth
  • Tanaporn Visaruthaphong
  • Tham Mun Hon

Regional Morning Meeting Notes: Tuesday, September 10, 2024

GREATER CHINA Economics Inflation Deflationary pressures rising. Sector Construction Building on the positive development of macroeconomic policies in 2H24-2025. Internet 2Q24 results wrap-up: Overall earnings beat; 2H24 outlook remains promising. INDONESIA Small...

Julia Pan Mengyao ... (+2)
  • Julia Pan Mengyao
  • Ming San Soong

Tongcheng Travel Holdings (780 HK): 2Q24: Results in line; shifting fo...

TT reported solid 2Q24 results, with revenue growing 48% yoy to Rmb4.2b, in line with consensus estimates. Adjusted net profit grew 10.9% yoy to Rmb657m, 4% above consensus estimate but 14% below our estimate. Non-IFRS net margin was 15.5% vs 20.7% in 2Q23. 3Q24 revenue is expected to grow 45-50% yoy, missing consensus estimate. Adjusted net profit is guided at Rmb800m-850m in 3Q24, with net margin down 2ppt yoy to 17%. Downgrade to HOLD. Target price: HK$14.00.

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