With primary sales remaining strong and HIBOR declining further, Hong Kong’s residential market is expected to continue its recovery despite rising geopolitical risks. We also summarise the key operational data and trends of Hong Kong landlords from this results season. The recent market pullback has created better entry points. We upgrade SHKP/Hysan/Wharf REIC from HOLD to BUY, and upgrade NWD from SELL to HOLD, with target prices remaining unchanged. Maintain MARKET WEIGHT.
Greater China Economics | Money Supply Feb 26 money and credit data came in above expectations, helped by the Chinese New Year effect and better new bank credit and TSF at Rmb0.90t and Rmb2.38t respectively. This lifted M2 growth to 9.0% yoy, while M1 growth came in at 5.9% yoy. While the 2M26 data was above market expectations, the credit cycle is not in an upswing, as total credit growth edged lower to 6.0% yoy, and TSF growth stayed flat at 8.2% yoy. Sector Update | Healthcare The HSH...
Greater China Sector Update | Automobile China's humanoid robotics sector is accelerating, with 2025 global shipments up 508%. Key players anticipate significant revenue contributions by 2031: CATL expects 3-7% from batteries; Minth and LeaderDrive project 5-12% and 45-65% respectively; Tuopu forecasts 15-25% from motion systems; and RoboSense targets 40-60% from LiDAR. We maintain a MARKET WEIGHT rating on the sector. Top BUY recommendations include CATL, Ganfeng Lithium, Minth (target price ra...
Underlying net profit rose 16.7% yoy, boosted by stronger China profits. Interim DPS increased 3.2% yoy to HK$0.98, beating expectations. Hong Kong development margins should recover from 2HFY26, while the pipeline of new IPs is strong into 2026. Management reaffirmed its 40-50% payout ratio and prudent financial management. We raise our FY26 earnings forecast by 5%. Maintain HOLD; target price: HK$143.80. SHKP remains the best proxy for Hong Kong’s residential market.
Residential prices rebounded more strongly than expected in 4Q25 and ytd, supported by positive rental yield spread over mortgage rates and stabilising population trends in Hong Kong. However, the yield spread has narrowed and supply remains relatively high despite easing sequentially. We raise our 2026 price growth forecast to 7% and primary transaction estimate to 25,000 units. We downgrade SHKP to HOLD, keep Kerry Properties at BUY, and maintain MARKET WEIGHT on the sector.
A director at Sun Hung Kai Properties Ltd bought 327,000 shares at 94.547HKD and the significance rating of the trade was 67/100. Is that information sufficient for you to make an investment decision? This report gives details of those trades and adds context and analysis to them such that you can judge whether these trading decisions are ones worth following. Included in the report is a detailed share price chart which plots discretionary trades by all the company's directors over the last tw...
Highlights We expect global liquidity cycle to remain strong for at least 1H26, following the Fed’s return to policy easing in Sep 25, benefitting emerging market assets and commodities. Chinese equities are likely to rally further, and our index target for MSCI China index target is at 104 pts based on 16.3x 12-month forward PE and 6% EPS growth assumption. We prefer exposure to growth industries like AI/semiconductors, automation/robotics, ADAS and innovative drugs and liquidity proxies ...
On 10 November, the State Council vowed to expand C-REITs for POEs. However, demand stays weak: home sales from 1-10 November in 28 mainland cities fell 45% yoy, with prices trending down. In Hong Kong, the potential supply of private homes rose 1% qoq, yet property prices and rents showed improving fundamentals. Maintain MARKET WEIGHT; favour mainland developers with strong retail portfolios (CR Land, Longfor); in Hong Kong, favour SHKP and Kerry Properties.
The IPO revival proves Hong Kong is re-emerging as a key hub for talent and capital amid geopolitical risks, benefitting the property market. Hong Kong’s repositioning is expected to shape the property industry’s new equilibrium over the next 2-3 years. As the market prepares for a new cycle, this report analyses the key factors driving industry fundamentals. Maintain MARKET WEIGHT on Hong Kong developers and landlords.
Greater China Sector Update | Automobile The escalating China-US trade tensions have triggered a dual crisis in chips and rare earth, potentially disrupting the global auto supply chain like that seen in 2021-22. China's auto sector sees short-term gains from domestic prioritisation but long-term risks. Chinese auto part companies may see a revenue loss in 4Q25 if the issue is not resolved in a month. Maintain MARKET WEIGHT. Top BUYs: CATL and Geely. Top SELLs: BYD and Li Auto. Sector Upda...
Highlights Repositioning of Hong Kong driving new sector equilibrium in next 2-3 years. Catalysts: More rate cuts than expected, policy support and tourism recovery. Risks: Fewer rate cuts, massive collateral liquidation by banks, more defaults. Analysis Repositioning of Hong Kong driving new property market equilibrium. With geopolitical tensions being the new norm, Hong Kong is remerging as a key hub for capital and talent, as evidenced by the IPO market’s revival which has benefitted...
Jinling Residence’s strong sell-out highlights resilient end-user demand despite weaker investment sentiment, while major cities’ October data showed yoy declines in both new and secondary home sales. We maintain MARKET WEIGHT. We upgrade Kerry Properties to BUY after the recent correction, with an unchanged target price of HK$22.80.
Greater China Sector Update | Property Jinling Residence’s strong sell-out highlights resilient end-user demand despite weaker investment sentiment, while major cities’ October data showed yoy declines in both new and secondary home sales. We maintain MARKET WEIGHT. We upgrade Kerry Properties to BUY after the recent correction, with an unchanged target price of HK$22.80. Company Update | Alibaba Group (9988 HK/BUY/HK$155.20/Target: HK$203.00) We expect solid 2QFY26 results, despite marg...
Golden Week new-home sales varied, with sales in Tier 1 cities growing 18.1% yoy on average, while sales in Tier 2 and Tier 3 cities declined. In Hong Kong, second-hand transactions from 2024-25 projects, like SHKP's Cullinan Sky, achieved better capital gains, boosting investor sentiment. Tourism data was mixed: mainland tourist growth slowed, other regions’ visitors surged, and northbound travel stayed strong. Maintain MARKET WEIGHT on China and Hong Kong property/landlord sectors.
The 2025 Policy Address expands the new CIES to include HK$30m-50m worth of residential properties, moderates land supply targets and suspends the Kau Yi Chau project. The North Metropolis needs to accelerate development with innovative measures. Population growth and tourism remain the key policy focus, though local spending lacks direct support. Our pecking order of positive impact on each segment: residential>retail>office. SHKP and Hysan are our top picks, while NWD is downgraded to SELL due...
SHKP reported a 0.5% increase in FY25 underlying net profit, driven by strong China DP margin and lower finance costs, despite weaker Hong Kong DP margins. Investment properties (IP) showed mixed results, with Hong Kong offices outperforming the market. The IGC in Hong Kong and ITC in Shanghai will complete and open in FY26, supporting recurring income growth. Management is committed to a 50% payout ratio. Maintain BUY. Target price of HK$103.00 implies a 4.0% FY26 yield.
KEY HIGHLIGHTS Sector Automobile The price war took its toll on Chinese auto companies in 2Q25, causing a margin squeeze along the supply chain. Price wars are inevitable, despite the state’s anti-involution campaign. Large OEMs like Geely, BYD and GWM will survive the industry consolidation. For young companies, we expect XPeng, Leapmotor and Aito to thrive. Maintain MARKET WEIGHT. Top BUYs: CATL and Geely. Top SELLs: BYD and Li Auto. Results Sun Hung Kai Properties (16 HK/BUY/HK$91.40/Tar...
GREATER CHINA Sector Automobile: Weekly: The price war took its toll in 2Q25, and it is coming back. Maintain MARKET WEIGHT on the sector. Top BUYs: CATL and Geely. Top SELLs: BYD and Li Auto. Results Sun Hung Kai Properties (16 HK/BUY/HK$91.40/Target: HK$103.00): FY25: Earnings stabilise; mixed segment performance. New IPs to drive growth from FY26. SINGAPORE Update BRC Asia (BRC SP/BUY/S$4.05/Target: S$4.69): Good proxy to rising construction activity. Upgrade to BUY. THAILAND Sector Hotel: ...
The 30 Jul Politburo meeting emphasised strict controls on hidden government debt and high-quality/prudent urban renewal. CR Land’s acquisition of two prime residential projects in Shanghai (Rmb24.5b) highlights opportunities for SOE developers as LGFVs divest assets under stricter oversight. While Tier 1 and 2 cities show further sales weakness, Hong Kong is progressing with destocking, with potential changes to ease capital transfers for mainland talents. Maintain MARKET WEIGHT on both sectors...
Mainland property sales continued to weaken in July, which may weigh on the recovery of land sales. Potential policy support in 2H25 could be a positive catalyst. The Hong Kong property market showed signs of stabilisation: CCL index has turned positive ytd, while inventory of primary private residential units decreased 3.8% qoq in 2Q25. Maintain MARKET WEIGHT on both sectors, favouring CR Land in China for its resilient performance. We also highlight our other top pick, CR Mixc, for its attract...
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