In Apr 25, the 28 mainland cities we monitored saw yoy decreases in new home sales, and total sales for Top 100 developers fell 16.9% yoy, worsening from a 10.6% yoy drop in Mar 25. As holiday delays data registration, we think the sales data for next two weeks will show the strength of sales in May 25. For the Hong Kong market, declining inventory and rising rental yields are positive signs. But consumption leakage remains a key concern. Maintain sector ratings. Top picks: CR Land and SHKP.
GREATER CHINA Strategy China And Hong Kong Property Market watch around May holiday: New-home sales recovery weakens in Apr 25; the trend of Hong Kong resident travelling north remains strong. Sector Consumer Strong Macau visitations and robust home appliance sales during Labour Day Holiday. INDONESIA Initiate Coverage Aneka Tambang (ANTM IJ/BUY/Rp2,540/Target:...
The HSI and MSCI China index fell 4.3% mom and 5.2% mom respectively in April, driven by Trump’s tariff announcements in early-April and fears of a potential global recession. Due to the ongoing external uncertainties, we will maintain our exposure to domestic policy beneficiaries and defensive sectors. New additions to our BUY list are Alibaba, Innovent, Shuanghuan, and Trip.com, and we take profit of CR Land and JBM Healthcare.
GREATER CHINA Strategy Alpha Picks: May Conviction Calls Add Alibaba, Innovent, Shuanghuan, Trip.com to our BUY list. Take profit on JBM Healthcare and CR Land. Sector Aviation Airlines: 1Q25 results below expectations. Weak fuel prices to support full-year performance. Maintain UNDERWEIGHT. INDONESIA Strategy 1Q25 Results Recap ...
In Apr 25: a) major mainland cities saw mom decreases in new home sales and secondhand transactions; b) the CVI index in Hong Kong is hovering around 40, pointing to weakened sentiment; and c) mainland tourists to Hong Kong/Hong Kong residents to China grew 15.7%/25.2% yoy respectively. Amid rising trade risks, stabilising domestic demand has become more important for China. Besides, Hong Kong’s free port status needs to be monitored. Maintain sector ratings. Top picks: CR Land and SHKP.
A director at Sun Hung Kai Properties Ltd bought 37,500 shares at 66.140HKD and the significance rating of the trade was 53/100. Is that information sufficient for you to make an investment decision? This report gives details of those trades and adds context and analysis to them such that you can judge whether these trading decisions are ones worth following. Included in the report is a detailed share price chart which plots discretionary trades by all the company's directors over the last two...
The tariffs announced by Trump increased uncertainties over the Fed’s rate cuts, weighing on the recovery of the Hong Kong residential market and tourism. The mainland property market will be less affected, backed by China’s relatively independent monetary policy. For 2025, leading SOE developers’ earnings stabilisation will be a key highlight. Maintain sector weights with this pecking order: China property>Hong Kong developers>Hong Kong landlords. Top picks: CR Land and SHKP.
GREATER CHINA Strategy China And Hong Kong Property & Hong Kong Landlord Tariffs curtail US rate cuts, thereby hindering the recovery of Hong Kong property and tourism; Maintain OVERWEIGHT on China property. INDONESIA Strategy Alpha Picks: Outperform In Mar 25 Remove BBNI, BBRI, ASII, JSMR and KLBF; add BBCA, ICBP, ERAA and BUKA. MALAYSIA Update Pekat Group (PEKAT MK/BUY/RM1.08/Target: RM1.45) Good earnings visibility over 2025...
The HSI and MSCI China index rose 0.8% mom and 2.0% mom respectively in March, after the DeepSeek fervour passed and investors locked in profits ahead of Trump’s tariff announcement in early-April. In the face of geopolitical uncertainties and potential trade war escalations, we will keep our exposure to companies reliant on domestic demand and beneficiaries of policy support. New additions to our BUY list are CR Beer, Desay SV, JBM Healthcare, JD Logistics, Minth, WuXi App Tech and Xiaomi Corp.
The HSI and MSCI China index rose 13.4% mom and 11.5% mom respectively in February, riding the wave of optimism on China’s tech sector. Sino-US tensions look set to rise in March, as higher tariffs take effect and should lead to greater market volatility. Hence, we will be quick to take profit and will only add names with less demanding valuations. New additions to our BUY list are Geely, JD, SHKP and Zijin Mining.
Property sales in mainland China saw yoy growth in Feb 25. Multiple real estate indicators showed signs of market stabilisation. In Mar 25, the performance of real estate stocks may be volatile. We continue to keep an eye on policy catalysts. In Hong Kong, both the CCL index and CVI index weakened in early-Feb 25, but recent primary sales achieved high sell-through rates. We expect an improvement in Hong Kong’s primary market after the budget speech. Maintain sector ratings. Top picks: CR Land a...
SHKP’s underlying net profit increased by 17.5% yoy to HK$10,463m, driven by faster recognition of Hong Kong property sales despite lower development margin. Interim DPS was HK$0.95/share, flat yoy. Rental profit decreased 3.5% yoy to HK$9,004m, with operational improvement of malls in 4Q24. Net gearing further dropped to 17.8%. Maintain earnings forecast and BUY with an unchanged target price of HK$103.00. SHKP remains our top pick for the Hong Kong property sector.
KEY HIGHLIGHTS Sector Automobile China’s auto sales picked up in the eighth week of 2025, but consumers’ wait-and-see sentiment continues amid the transitional period of product upgrades. Geely will hold an AI Intelligence Strategy Conference on 3 Mar 25, which may boost its stock price. Given the stronger-than-expected market response, we upgrade Li Auto and XPeng from HOLD to BUY and raise target prices to HK$156.00 and HK$110.00 respectively. Maintain MARKET WEIGHT. Top BUYs: Geely, Fuyao, ...
GREATER CHINA Sector Automobile Weekly: PV sales picked up wow while the wait-and-see sentiment continues. Upgrade Li Auto and XPeng from HOLD to BUY and raise target price to HK$156.00 and HK$110.00 respectively. Maintain MARKET WEIGHT on the sector. Top BUYs: Geely, CATL, Fuyao and Desay. Results BeiGene (6160 HK/BUY/HK$161.60/Target: HK$220.00) 2024: Results beat; targets operating profit...
Property sales in both mainland China and Hong Kong recovered wow in the third week of Feb 25. With a continued decline in transition volume and improvement of sentiment in a few cities, we expect the land market to continue its structural divergence in 2025. In Hong Kong, the CCL index remained stable, but we expect high inventory to continue weighing on property prices. We stay cautious on NWD with a HOLD rating despite the
Property sales in both mainland China and Hong Kong weakened during 2025’s CNY. Another key development around CNY was the change in Vanke’s top management, which we think cannot eliminate the risks associated with Vanke due to the financial constraint of Shenzhen Metro. Hong Kong saw a low growth in tourist arrivals during CNY. We think further policy support is needed and possible. Maintain our respective sector ratings. Top picks are CR Land, SHKP and LINK REIT.
The second-hand home market in Tier 1 cities was strong in 2024, while new home sales and land supplies in major cities continued to drop. In Hong Kong, the primary market outperformed due to attractive pricing. There were higher relative returns from letting out properties in Tier 1 cities and Hong Kong. Stabilisation of the property market will be given higher priority due to rising geopolitical risks in 2025. Maintain OVERWEIGHT/ MARKET WEIGHT on the China/Hong Kong property sectors. Top pick...
In Nov 24, new and second-hand home transactions in major cities showed positive mom growth, although listing prices continued to trend down. In Hong Kong, the latest CCL index fell 0.7% wow after rebounding 2.2% since end-Sep 24, and primary transactions also declined mom. Rising geopolitical risks and uncertainties of rate cuts weigh on the recovery of property sales. CEWC in Dec 24 will be the next key event to watch. Maintain MARKET WEIGHT. Top pick COLI, SHKP.
In Oct 24, the primary property market showed signs of recovery, with a notable increase in transaction volume. Nov 24 may see a pullback in transaction volume on lower high-quality new supply. However, we still expect a 3% recovery in property prices in 4Q24-1Q25, driven by rising rental yields and supportive macro factors. On the other hand, retail landlords continue to face challenges from GBA integration. Maintain MARKET WEIGHT and prefer developers over landlords. SHKP and LINK REIT are our...
GREATER CHINA Strategy Hong Kong Developers And Landlords Top developer leads strong sales rebound in Oct 24; landlords continue to face challenges from GBA integration. Sector Internet - China Encouraging monetisation visibility from adtech and LLM upgrades. Update Xiaomi Corp (1810 HK/BUY/HK$27.30/Target: HK$31.70) 3Q24 results preview: Robust growth in IoT se...
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