In Nov 24, new and second-hand home transactions in major cities showed positive mom growth, although listing prices continued to trend down. In Hong Kong, the latest CCL index fell 0.7% wow after rebounding 2.2% since end-Sep 24, and primary transactions also declined mom. Rising geopolitical risks and uncertainties of rate cuts weigh on the recovery of property sales. CEWC in Dec 24 will be the next key event to watch. Maintain MARKET WEIGHT. Top pick COLI, SHKP.
In Oct 24, the primary property market showed signs of recovery, with a notable increase in transaction volume. Nov 24 may see a pullback in transaction volume on lower high-quality new supply. However, we still expect a 3% recovery in property prices in 4Q24-1Q25, driven by rising rental yields and supportive macro factors. On the other hand, retail landlords continue to face challenges from GBA integration. Maintain MARKET WEIGHT and prefer developers over landlords. SHKP and LINK REIT are our...
GREATER CHINA Strategy Hong Kong Developers And Landlords Top developer leads strong sales rebound in Oct 24; landlords continue to face challenges from GBA integration. Sector Internet - China Encouraging monetisation visibility from adtech and LLM upgrades. Update Xiaomi Corp (1810 HK/BUY/HK$27.30/Target: HK$31.70) 3Q24 results preview: Robust growth in IoT se...
The Chief Executive delivered the 2024 Policy Address on 17 Oct 24. The government pledged to continue relaxing demand-side policies by expanding new CIES and raising LTV. On the supply front, the government reiterated its land supply plan, and expedite construction in the northern metropolitan area. Policy easing may positively impact the market in the near term. However, restoring confidence and further rate cuts are crucial. Maintain MARKET WEIGHT. SHKP and LINK REIT are our top picks.
The CCL index fell 7.71% in 9M24. We anticipate a 3% rebound, supported by both rate cuts and China's economic stimulus policies. For the Golden Week holiday, the first six days registered a 24% yoy growth in the number of mainland tourists, with F&B being the major beneficiary. However, the relatively high Hong Kong dollar exchange rate may continue to weigh on high-end tourism spending. Maintain MARKET WEIGHT, preferring developers. Our top picks are SHKP and LINK REIT.
GREATER CHINA Sector Hong Kong Developers And Landlords Expect the strong performance of the stock market to have a positive impact on property prices. INDONESIA Update Summarecon Agung (SMRA IJ/BUY/Rp700/Target: Rp865) Potential further re-rating from SMIP IPO and more rate cuts. MALAYSIA Update KPJ Healthcare (KPJ MK/HOLD/RM2.07/Target: RM1.90) KPJ’s transformation programme continues to gathe...
Key takeaways are: a) underlying net profit dropped 12.9% on average, b) decrease in property development margin is the major profit dragger; c) IP portfolios stayed resilient, d) Sino maintained net cash position, and e) the average gearing ratio for the other four developers is 21.8%. For the next six months, although property sales margin is still under pressure, we are confident of the steady profit contribution from IPs. Maintain MARKET WEIGHT on the sector with SHKP as our top sector pick.
GREATER CHINA Sector Hong Kong Property Results wrap-up for Hong Kong developers: Navigating the cycle. INDONESIA Update XL Axiata (EXCL IJ/BUY/Rp2,270/Target: Rp2,900) Fixed broadband ARPU might increase by 10% post-acquisition of ServeCo. MALAYSIA Sector Utilities A strong 2Q24 with companies coming in broadly within expe...
Underlying net profit fell 9% yoy to HK$21,739m, 4.5% and 7.6% below consensus and our estimates, mainly dragged by a contraction in property development (PD) profits. The IP portfolio stays resilient. DPS decreased 24% yoy, implying a 50% payout ratio. For FY25, management targets better Hong Kong property sales and lower gearing. We trim our earnings estimate and lower the target price by 10% to HK$94.55. Maintain BUY and keep SHKP as a top sector pick.
GREATER CHINA Strategy Alpha Picks: September Conviction Calls: We expect an improving operating performance among selected companies in September, and add AIA, COLI, Desay SV, Galaxy Entertainment, Meituan, Ping An and TUL to our BUY list and add Li Auto as a SELL. INDONESIA Strategy Alpha Picks: Trailing The JCI’s Strong Performance In Aug 24: Our picks are ICBP, TOWR, BBNI, BMRI, BBRI, EXCL, CTRA, BBTN, CMRY, SIDO and JSMR. MALAYSIA Strategy Alpha Picks: Adapting To A Bipolar Market: Our Al...
GREATER CHINA Strategy Alpha Picks: August Conviction Calls: We expect stimulus to be announced in August and add COSCO Shipping Ports, Haier Smart Home, and KE Holdings to our BUY list and add SELL call on WuXi Bio, and XPeng. INDONESIA Strategy Alpha Picks: Underperformance in Jul 24: Our picks are BBNI, BMRI, BBRI, EXCL, CTRA, BBTN, CMRY, SIDO and JSMR. MALAYSIA Strategy Alpha Picks: Raising The M&A And Monetisation Bets: Our Alpha Picks marginally beat the KLCI. Jul 24 picks: Ekovest, Gamu...
For the Hong Kong market, we notice two trends in Jul 24: a) developers' low-price strategy proved effective; and b) daily average of Hong Kong residents going north saw a mom drop. However, we need more evidence to conclude that property prices have bottomed out and that the trend of going north to shop has reversed. Maintain MARKET WEIGHT for rising interest in high-yield assets and improvement in home buyers’ sentiment. Top picks: SHKP and LINK REIT.
GREATER CHINA Sector Hong Kong Property Developers’ low-price strategy proved effective; northbound traveling marginally weakened in Jul 24. Internet Pipeline of high-quality games as key catalyst amid strong seasonality. INDONESIA Results AKR Corporindo (AKRA IJ/HOLD/Rp1,530/Target: Rp1,700) 2Q24: Net profit down 31% qoq, below ...
For the mainland market, despite the marginal recovery of key indicators in June, the accelerated decline in property prices in 1H24 is weighing on developers’ margins. Top pick is CR Land for its defensiveness of margins thanks to strong recurring income. For Hong Kong, the daily average number of mainland tourists to Hong Kong and Hong Kong residents going northwards rose 22% and fell 7.8% mom in July. The upcoming rate cut will support the valuations of Hong Kong retail landlords. Top pick: L...
GREATER CHINA Economics Economic Activity 2Q24 growth below expectations. Strategy China And Hong Kong Property Sharper property price decline in 1H24 weighing on margins of Chinese developers; upcoming interest rate cut to support value of Hong Kong retail landlords. Update Kingmed Diagnostics (603882 CH/BUY/Rmb38.10/Target: Rmb35.00) 1H24 and 2024 results under pressu...
A director at Sun Hung Kai Properties Ltd bought 90,000 shares at 66.556HKD and the significance rating of the trade was 67/100. Is that information sufficient for you to make an investment decision? This report gives details of those trades and adds context and analysis to them such that you can judge whether these trading decisions are ones worth following. Included in the report is a detailed share price chart which plots discretionary trades by all the company's directors over the last two...
GREATER CHINA Strategy Alpha Picks: July Conviction Call: Adding ASMPT, Innovent, Poly Property Services, TAL Education and Trip.com to our BUY list; hedging with SELL call on BYD. INDONESIA Strategy Alpha Picks: Outperformance In Jun 24 And 2Q24: Our picks are BMRI, BBRI, EXCL, BSDE, TLKM, ACES, BBTN, CMRY, SIDO and JSMR. MALAYSIA Strategy Alpha Picks: Opting For More Adventurous Choices: Our Alpha Picks beat the KLCI again. Jul 24 picks: BURSA, Ekovest, Gamuda, Lagenda, Mah Sing, MYEG, Pekat...
For the mainland property market: a) both new and secondary home sales in core cities improved, and b) SOEs saw sales rebound in Jun 24. For Hong Kong’s property market: a) it entered the low sales season, b) approval of automatic land lease renewal marginally improved buyer sentiment, and c) an increase in the duty-free quota was below expectations. Maintain MARKET WEIGHT on the China and Hong Kong property sectors. Downgrade the Hong Kong landlord sector to MARKET WEIGHT. Prefer the China prop...
KEY HIGHLIGHTS Economics PMI: Manufacturing PMI below 50% for a second month. Strategy China And Hong Kong Property: Major SOE developers saw sales rebound in June; policy support for Hong Kong tourism weaker-than-expected. Sector Macau Gaming: Jun 24 GGR down 12% mom, missing expectations. HSI AND HS TECH INDEX OUTLOOK
GREATER CHINA Economics PMI Manufacturing PMI below 50% for a second month. Strategy China And Hong Kong Property Major SOE developers saw sales rebound in June; policy support for Hong Kong tourism weaker-than-expected. Sector Macau Gaming Jun 24 GGR down 12% mom, missing expectations. INDONESIA Results Vale In...
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