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Dave Nicoski ... (+2)
  • Dave Nicoski
  • Ross LaDuke

Vermilion Compass: Weekly Equity Strategy

Buy the Pullback Again Our outlook remains bullish following the S&P 500's multi-month base breakout above 5670, alongside healthy market dynamics which have continued to improve. Two weeks ago, our election day Compass report (11/5/24) was titled "Buy the Pullback," and with the S&P 500, Nasdaq 100 (QQQ), and Russell 2000 (IWM) all pulling back to their respective 20-day MAs, we believe it is time to buy the pullback again. We continue to expect significant upside into year-end and the early p...

Moody's Ratings upgrades Expand Energy's notes to Ba1, affirms Ba1 CFR...

Moody's Ratings (Moody's) affirmed Expand Energy Corporation's (Expand) Ba1 Corporate Family Rating (CFR) and Ba1-PD Probability of Default Rating (PDR), and maintained the positive outlook. Expand's SGL-1 Speculative Grade Liquidity (SGL) rating remains unchanged. Expand was formerly known as Chesa...

Dave Nicoski ... (+2)
  • Dave Nicoski
  • Ross LaDuke

Vermilion Short Shots: Technically Vulnerable Stocks

Short Shots is a collection of technically vulnerable charts culled from the Negative Inflecting and Toppy columns within our Weekly Compass report or from various technical screening processes. The charts contained in this report have developed concerning technical patterns that suggest further price deterioration is likely. For these reasons Short Shots can also be a great source of ideas for investors interested in short-selling candidates.

Jeff Robertson
  • Jeff Robertson

Estimate Update

We are updating our 2Q24 estimates to reflect actual oil and natural gas prices. Our reference oil price averaged $80.66 during 2Q24, and our reference natural gas price averaged $2.33/MMBtu. For 2Q24, we estimate total revenue of $139.1 million based on estimated average production of ~35.0 MBOE/d, including ~14.1 MB/d of oil. Oil accounts for 41% of our production estimate and 76% of our revenue estimate. Our 2Q24 adjusted EBITDA estimate is $36.2 million, compared to $49.4 million in 1Q24 and...

Jeff Robertson
  • Jeff Robertson

Recycling Cash Flow in Acquisitions

We hosted a fireside chat with Chairman, President, and CEO Tracy Krohn on March 27, 2024, to discuss the company’s acquisition-driven strategy in the Gulf of Mexico. This report contains a transcript of the conversation, which can be accessed on demand. Link accessible in our full report. Since September 2023, W&T has closed two producing property acquisitions in the Gulf of Mexico for combined cash considerations of ~$104 million. In the most recent closing, the company acquired six shallow-wa...

W&T Offshore, Inc.: Operational challenges to weigh on credit metrics

Our credit view of this issuer reflects its long history of operations in the US Gulf of Mexico and its proximity to Gulf Coast and low basis differentials.

Moody's Ratings affirms W&T Offshore's B3 CFR with negative outlook

Moody's Ratings (Moody's) changed W&T Offshore, Inc.'s (W&T) outlook to negative, from stable previously. Concurrently, Moody's affirmed W&T's B3 Corporate Family Rating (CFR), B3-PD Probability of Default Rating (PDR), and Caa1 senior secured second lien notes rating. "The change in W&T's outlook...

Dave Nicoski ... (+2)
  • Dave Nicoski
  • Ross LaDuke

Vital Signs: Actionable charts

In this product we rank the most positive and negative domestic stocks, filter the symbols by market-cap and trading volume, and then divide the companies into sectors and groups. We then manually look through charts leadership/changes, bottoms-up/top-down ideas, short-term patterns that may have long-term significance, etc. We believe you will find this product valuable as significant price and relative moves begin in the daily charts.

Jeff Robertson
  • Jeff Robertson

Cox Acquisition Bolsters Free Cash Flow Profile

W&T Offshore closed an acquisition of six operated oil & gas fields in the Gulf of Mexico on January 22, 2024, for $72 million. The acquisition, which was funded with cash on hand, fits management’s philosophy of investing capital in short-cycle opportunities capable of generating free cash flow. The acquired assets include 100% working interests (82% net revenue interests) in six producing fields adjacent to W&T’s existing asset footprint. Estimated production ranged from 3,700-5,700 BOE/d (68%...

Southwestern Energy Company: Merger with Chesapeake drives positive ou...

Our credit view of this issuer reflects its visibility into debt reduction, against its moderately higher leverage relative to similarly-rated peers.

Dave Nicoski ... (+2)
  • Dave Nicoski
  • Ross LaDuke

Vital Signs: Actionable charts

In this product we rank the most positive and negative domestic stocks, filter the symbols by market-cap and trading volume, and then divide the companies into sectors and groups. We then manually look through charts leadership/changes, bottoms-up/top-down ideas, short-term patterns that may have long-term significance, etc. We believe you will find this product valuable as significant price and relative moves begin in the daily charts.

Apache Corporation - September 2023 (LTM): Peer Snapshot

Compares key performance metrics against industry peers.

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