We take a look at the broad developments in euro-denominated AT1 markets. So far this year the tight trading levels have reflected as banks continuing to remain very active in primary markets. With the uncertain geopolitical landscape, we would remain selective on issuers and in terms of bonds.
Deutsche Pfandbriefbank has decided to discontinue its US business. While we consider the move a positive for the longer term, in the short term it will pressure earnings and is a risk to the limited MDA headroom. We are cautious on its AT1.
As we approach summer and reflect upon the already very busy and volatile first half of the year, we review our Credit Markets Outlook for 2025 and offer an update on our views, positioning and forecasts for the remainder of the year. We include our Picks and Pans on the Utilities, TMT, Real Estate and Bank sectors.
Some curve reflattening expected for covered bonds; Aareal manages to offset NII weakness with lower provisions; Deutsche Pfandbriefbank's credit metrics remain challenged; The ECB reaffirms its commitment to the digital euro and clarifies the timeline
We initiate coverage of Heijmans, a contractor focused on the Dutch market, with an Outperform rating and a TP of € 36.5 (DCF based). The Dutch residential market is finally recovering, and we believe Heijmans is well-positioned to benefit due to its land bank and property development arm, driving up revenues while EBITDA margins are expected to exceed 8.5% in the Living unit. Heijmans is also benefitting from strong demand from the infrastructure and energy markets, allowing for soli...
We initiate coverage of Heijmans, a contractor focused on the Dutch market, with an Outperform rating and a TP of € 36.5 (DCF based). The Dutch residential market is finally recovering, and we believe Heijmans is well-positioned to benefit due to its land bank and property development arm, driving up revenues while EBITDA margins are expected to exceed 8.5% in the Living unit. Heijmans is also benefitting from strong demand from the infrastructure and energy markets, allowing for soli...
>Opinion Neutre réitérée – OC porté à 6.0 € (vs 5.6 €) - Nous maintenons notre opinion Neutre sur PBB après la publication des chiffres T3/9M 2024. Malgré un ‘mix underlying’ mitigé, l’opérationnel continue globalement de rassurer peu à peu (évolution de la topline, des coûts et du coût du risque). Le processus de rerating observé depuis mars 2024 reste d’actualité avec cette nouvelle publication trimestrielle (à titre indicatif le titre a regagné ~40% depuis son poin...
>Neutral rating maintained – target price raised to € 6.0 (vs € 5.6) - We maintain our Neutral rating on PBB following its Q3/9M 2024 figures. Despite a contrasting underlying mix, operating trends continue to provide reassurance little by little (top line trend, costs and CoR). The re-rating process seen since March 2024 remains in play with this latest set of quarterly numbers (the stock has recovered ~40% since its low early March but continues to underperform the ...
>Opinion Neutre maintenue – OC porté à 5.6 € (vs 5.5 €) - Notre opinion Neutre est confortée sur le titre PBB après la publication des chiffres T2 2024. Sans briller, l’évolution opérationnelle rassure un peu plus (évolution de la topline, niveau attendu du coût du risque lié à l’exposition à l’immobilier commercial US). Le processus de rerating graduel observé depuis mars 2024 reste envisageable au fur et à mesure de publications trimestrielles solides (à titre indic...
>Neutral rating maintained – target price raised to € 5.6 (vs € 5.5) - We confirm our Neutral rating on PBB after the publication of the Q2 2024 results. Though not outstanding, the operating performance was slightly more reassuring (top-line growth, expected level of the cost of risk relating to US commercial real estate exposure). We can still envisage the gradual re-rating observed since March 2024 continuing as and when robust quarterly earnings are reported (as a...
With 71% of the companies in the Stoxx 600 having released their Q1 2024 results, the picture at this stage is encouraging, with 58% of positive surprises on results. Materials and financials were the sectors that delivered the most positive surprises. If the Q4 2023 earnings season put an end to a downward revision of EPS, the Q1 2024 earnings season has triggered the start of an upward EPS revision, more markedly in the US than in Europe. In terms of sectors, re-rating effects conti...
Alors que 71% des sociétés du Stoxx 600 ont publié, le bilan est à ce stade positif avec 58% de surprises positives sur les résultats. Matériaux et Financières sont les secteurs ayant apporté le plus de surprises positives. Le consensus – qui avait stoppé sa baisse durant les publications T4-23, est désormais reparti à la hausse, plus nettement aux Etats-Unis qu’en Europe. Sectoriellement, les effets de rerating ont continué de dominer les révisions de BPA. - ...
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