EME Equity Market – August 2025 Corrections in Poland and the broader MSCI EM Europe. The MSCI EM Europe Index declined by 2.3% mom in EUR terms and was flat (0.0%) in USD terms in August. The Hungarian BUX was the top performer, adding 2.2% mom in EUR terms, followed by the Romanian BET (+1.9% mom), the Czech PX (+1.7% mom) and the Greek ASE (+1.4% mom) (all in EUR terms); while there was a muted performance from the Turkish ISE 30 (+0.4% mom in EUR terms). The biggest loser was the Polish WIG ...
Erste Group delivered strong H1 2025 results supported by revenue growth in core markets, disciplined cost management, robust asset quality, and a significant positive one-off item, has prompted a broad-based upgrade to the full-year 2025 guidance. The quarter was also marked by an accelerated capital build, with the CET1 ratio increasing to 17.4%, placing the bank in a strong position ahead of the planned consolidation of Santander Bank Polska around year-end 2025.
HEADLINES: • Rainbow Tours: on the road to riches (BUY - initiation of coverage) • Erste Bank: 2Q25 results beat on positive one-off; solid performance in core result leads to 2025E guidance uplift POSITIVE • Jeronimo Martins: minor beat in 2Q25; FY25E guidance maintained POSITIVE • Eurobank Ergasias Services: 2Q25 highlights – a clean 14% beat vs. our estimate POSITIVE • National Bank of Greece: 2Q25 highlights – in line, with guidance upgrade POSITIVE • Optima Bank SA: bottom-line beat in 2Q25...
HEADLINES: • EME Macro/Strategy: macro all-in-one (14-20 July) • OPAP: acquires remaining 15.5% stake in Stoiximan POSITIVE • Solutions by STC: 2Q25E financial results preview (due out tomorrow) • Borouge: 2Q25E results preview (due on 31 July) NEUTRAL • Grupa Pracuj: 2Q25E results preview – 3% yoy adjusted EBITDA growth expected (due on 28 August) • Erste Bank: 2Q25E preview (due on 1 August) • OTP Bank: 2Q25E preview (due on 5 August) • Bank Pekao: 2Q25E preview (due on 7 August) • PKO BP: 2Q2...
EME Equity Market – May 2025 EME indices mostly in the green in May, apart from Türkiye. The MSCI EM Europe Index added 3.6% mom in EUR and USD terms. The Greek ASE index (+7.8% mom) was the best performer, followed by the Czech PX (+6.6% mom) and Romanian BET indices (+5.0% mom), the Hungarian BUX (+4.0% mom) and the Polish WIG20 (+2.0% mom; all in EUR terms). The Turkish ISE30 Index was, again, the worst performer, with a more modest decline (-1.4% mom in EUR terms) this time.
HEADLINES: • Erste Bank Group: smart leverage, strong thesis (stays BUY) • Santander Bank Polska: no such thing as plug and play in M&A (downgraded to HOLD) • EME Macro/Strategy: CIS plus – a good growth juncture, amid global policy shifts • PCF Group: 1Q25 results miss expectations, on lower portion of costs being capitalised NEGATIVE • Echo Investment (HOLD, PT PLN 3.1): 1Q25 – only a handful of deliveries means a weak P&L • Duna House: 1Q25 results– first look positive POSITIVE • DataWalk: ke...
We keep Erste Bank as a BUY and set our new 12M price target (PT) at EUR 85.1 (up from EUR 57.0), offering 20% upside. This profound PT increase is due to two factors: first, we have raised our 2025E net profit forecast by 22% on a comparable geographic basis, on the strong revenue performance, and solid asset quality delivery and guidance so far this year. If just focusing on this factor, we would see the current valuation as rightly reflecting c.EUR 3bn of average annual profits both this and ...
We leave our recommendation at Neutral following Erste’s Polish acquisition, which was expensive, in our view, although they spent their extensive capital in a value-creating way. We roll over and raise our Jun-26 ex-div target price to EUR 75.6 from EUR 64.2, implying a 10.0% TR upside potential including a DPS of EUR 0.8 for 2025 over the TP period.
Erste’s net income came in at EUR 743mn in Q1, down by 5% YoY and up by 22% QoQ while the figure came 1% ahead of consensus. The key contributors to better-than-expected earnings was provisioning, which was partly offset by NII and other results.
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