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Szabolcs Pal
  • Szabolcs Pal

Erste beats expectations mainly due to a one-off effect and improved t...

Erste Group delivered strong H1 2025 results supported by revenue growth in core markets, disciplined cost management, robust asset quality, and a significant positive one-off item, has prompted a broad-based upgrade to the full-year 2025 guidance. The quarter was also marked by an accelerated capital build, with the CET1 ratio increasing to 17.4%, placing the bank in a strong position ahead of the planned consolidation of Santander Bank Polska around year-end 2025.

Szabolcs Pal
  • Szabolcs Pal

RBI reported a surprising result in Q2

After the Q2 results we revised our forecast and rolled our TP to Jun-26 which we set at EUR 28.3 excluding the DPS after the 2025 results. We increased our 2026 estimated EPS by 15% to EUR 4.2. However, we cut our recommendation to Accumulate from Buy due to the limited upside potential. We assume that RBI will increase the dividend payout ratio to 40% following last year's decline. RBI reported a net profit of EUR 307mn, a 25% increase YoY, due to the higher operating income and lower CHF pr...

Steven Gould
  • Steven Gould
Steven Gould
  • Steven Gould
Research Team
  • Research Team

The Rear-View Mirror – EME markets: all indices in the green in July

EME Equity Market – July 2025 EME indices all in the green in July. The MSCI EM Europe Index advanced by 6.0% mom in EUR terms and 3.0% in USD terms. The Turkish ISE30 was, once again, the top performer, adding 7.9% mom in EUR terms, followed very closely by the Romanian BET, advancing 7.8% mom in EUR terms. The Greek ASE added 6.8% mom in EUR terms, while the Czech PX added 4.5% mom in EUR terms. The Hungarian BUX and Polish WIG20 added 3.6% and 3.0% mom, respectively, in EUR terms.

BRE MBANK SA
EUROB EUROBANK ERGASIAS SERVICES & HOLDINGS SA
GARAN TURKIYE GARANTI BANKASI ANONIM SIRKETI
PEO BANK POLSKA KASA OPIEKI SA
OPAP GREEK ORGANISATION OF FOOTBALL PROGNOSTICS SA
KRU KRUK S.A.
EXAE HELLENIC EXCHANGES SA
CEZ CEZ AS
KRKG KRKA D.D.
RBI RAIFFEISEN BANK INTERNATIONAL AG
YKBNK YAPI VE KREDI BANKASI A.S.
OMV OMV AG
KOMB KOMERCNI BANKA A.S.
TITK TITAN CEMENT CO. SA
WIZZ WIZZ AIR HOLDINGS PLC
SPL SANTANDER BANK POLSKA SA
MIL BANK MILLENNIUM SA
BSK ING BANK SLASKI S.A.
BDX BUDIMEX S.A.
LAMDA LAMDA DEVELOPMENT S.A.
GEKTERNA GEK TERNA
KTY GRUPA KETY SA
DOC DO & CO AKTIENGESELLSCHAFT
TPS ORANGE POLSKA S.A.
MYTIL MYTILINEOS S.A.
LPP LPP S.A.
AKBNK AKBANK TAS
ASELS ASELSAN ELEKTRONIK SANAYI VE TICARET A.S. CLASS B
CIMSA CIMENTO SANYAI VE TICARET A.S.
GTC GLOBE TRADE CENTRE S.A.
AEGN AEGEAN AIRLINES SA
BFT BENEFIT SYSTEMS S.A. ALLOTMENT
APR AUTO PARTNER SA
LVC LIVECHAT SOFTWARE SA
TBCB TBC BANK JOINT STOCK CO
TPEIR PIRAEUS BANK SA
CAR INTER CARS S.A.
ARCLK ARCELIK A.S.
FROTO FORD OTOMOTIV SANAYI A.S.
TUPRS TURKIYE PETROL RAFINERILERI A.S.
CPS CYFROWY POLSAT SA
MBR MO-BRUK S.A.
11B 11 BIT STUDIOS S.A.
DAT DATAWALK SA
VGO VIGO SYSTEM SA
BELA JUMBO S.A.
SAB1L SIAULIU BANKAS
BRD BRD-GROUPE SOCIETE GENERALE
TLV BANCA TRANSILVANIA S.A.
MONET MONETA MONEY BANK AS
H4L1 HALYK SAVINGS BANK OF KAZAKHSTAN GDR
SNP PETROM S.A.
TOFAS TOFAS TURK OTOMOBIL FABRIKASI A.S.
NBGGY NATIONAL BANK OF GREECE S.A. ADS
GEB BANK OF GEORGIA
RICHT RICHTER
R22 R22
MCOV B MEDICOVER AB
CGEO GEORGIA CAPITAL
TEN TEN SQUARE GAMES
ALG ALLEGRO.EU SA
INPST INPOST S.A.
HUGE HUUUGE
PCO PEPCO GROUP NV
CTPNV CTP NV
GPP GRUPA PRACUJ DA
BCG BALTIC CLASSIFIEDS GROUP PLC
ADNOCDRILL ADNOC DRILLING CO
2381 ARABIAN DRILLING CO.
9526 JAHEZ INTERNATIONAL CO
BOROUGE BOROUGE
7203 ELM CO
OPTIMAr OPTIMA BANK S.A.
MUR2 MURAPOL SA
THEON THEON INTERNATIONAL PLC
Research Team
  • Research Team

WOOD Daily: RBW PW; EBS AV; JMT PL; EUROB GA; ETE GA; OPTIMA GA; TITC ...

HEADLINES: • Rainbow Tours: on the road to riches (BUY - initiation of coverage) • Erste Bank: 2Q25 results beat on positive one-off; solid performance in core result leads to 2025E guidance uplift POSITIVE • Jeronimo Martins: minor beat in 2Q25; FY25E guidance maintained POSITIVE • Eurobank Ergasias Services: 2Q25 highlights – a clean 14% beat vs. our estimate POSITIVE • National Bank of Greece: 2Q25 highlights – in line, with guidance upgrade POSITIVE • Optima Bank SA: bottom-line beat in 2Q25...

Marine Leleux ... (+3)
  • Marine Leleux
  • Maureen Schuller
  • Suvi Platerink Kosonen

Bank Brunch/Credit Agricole, Societe Generale, RBI, USD supply

Crédit Agricole reports resilient earnings, capital remains strong. Société Générale reports stronger earnings. RBI earnings drop to a loss, we expect AT1 call to depend on refinancing. USD denominated sustainable issuances drop in 1H25

Marine Leleux ... (+3)
  • Marine Leleux
  • Maureen Schuller
  • Suvi Platerink Kosonen
Research Team
  • Research Team

WOOD Daily: SPL PW; RBI AV; TUPRS TI; AKBNK TI; OTKAR TI; THEON NA; TI...

HEADLINES: • Santander Bank Polska: 2Q25 results – solid dividend flow expected • Raiffeisen Bank International: 2Q25 results • Tupras: 2Q25 results – EBITDA beats expectations POSITIVE • Akbank: 2Q25 highlights – guidance downgrade, but probably not a surprise for the market NEUTRAL • Otokar: 1H25 inflation-adjusted financials • Theon International: 1H25 trading update POSITIVE • Titan: weak 2Q25 results for Titan America, but guidance remains unchanged NEGATIVE • ADNOC Drilling: 2Q25 results –...

Research Team
  • Research Team

WOOD Daily: EME Macro/Strategy Weekly; OPAP GA; SOLUTION AB; BOROUGE U...

HEADLINES: • EME Macro/Strategy: macro all-in-one (14-20 July) • OPAP: acquires remaining 15.5% stake in Stoiximan POSITIVE • Solutions by STC: 2Q25E financial results preview (due out tomorrow) • Borouge: 2Q25E results preview (due on 31 July) NEUTRAL • Grupa Pracuj: 2Q25E results preview – 3% yoy adjusted EBITDA growth expected (due on 28 August) • Erste Bank: 2Q25E preview (due on 1 August) • OTP Bank: 2Q25E preview (due on 5 August) • Bank Pekao: 2Q25E preview (due on 7 August) • PKO BP: 2Q2...

Suvi Platerink Kosonen
  • Suvi Platerink Kosonen

Bank Capital/It's getting hot in here

We take a look at the broad developments in euro-denominated AT1 markets. So far this year the tight trading levels have reflected as banks continuing to remain very active in primary markets. With the uncertain geopolitical landscape, we would remain selective on issuers and in terms of bonds.

Jeroen van den Broek ... (+2)
  • Jeroen van den Broek
  • Timothy Rahill

Credit Outlook update/An unstoppable force against an immovable object

As we approach summer and reflect upon the already very busy and volatile first half of the year, we review our Credit Markets Outlook for 2025 and offer an update on our views, positioning and forecasts for the remainder of the year. We include our Picks and Pans on the Utilities, TMT, Real Estate and Bank sectors.

Marine Leleux ... (+3)
  • Marine Leleux
  • Maureen Schuller
  • Suvi Platerink Kosonen

Bank Brunch/Norwegian preferred senior, ECB rating rules, RBI damages,...

Norwegian preferred senior to face some performance boundaries. ECB collateral: Rating rule changes will hardly impact preferred senior. Raiffeisen Bank International completes payment of damages. Commerzbank AT1 tender results

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