Renewable Weekly – 11 November 2024

Elmera Group (Sell, TP: NOK24.00) - Earnings beat, but valuation still...

Given the better-than-expected Q3 results, low power prices limiting switching activity, and high margins on variable contracts for the Consumer business, Elmera looks set to meet its 2025 guidance. We have raised our target price to NOK24 (21) on positive estimate revisions, but with the valuation still looking rich, reiterate our SELL.

More lightning than buzz

Elmera Group (Sell, TP: NOK21.00) - Q3 above, guidance maintained

We consider this a positive report for Elmera Group, including figures above consensus, higher-than-expected deliveries, and a maintained 2024-2025 guidance. We expect c5% positive revisions to consensus 2024e EBIT on the report and believe a positive share price reaction is warranted.

Massive beat on EBIT and CF

Clean EBIT 40% better on hihger sales /GM. "Consumer" strong (price hikes / margins). Underlying CF strong

Renewable Weekly – 1 November 2024

This week, we summarise this week's most important newsflow on the companies under our coverage.

Renewable Weekly – 25 October 2024

This week, we summarise this week's most important newsflow on the companies under our coverage.

Renewable Weekly – 17 October 2024

This week, we summarise our Q3 previews for the sector.

Renewable Weekly – 8 Oct 2024

This week, we highlight the Norwegian Water Resources and Energy Directorate updated LCOE estimates.

Q3 set to beat

Renewable Weekly – 24 Sept 2024

Elmera Group (Sell, TP: NOK21.00) - Historical price increases could p...

We reiterate our SELL and have lowered our target price to NOK21 (24) on what we see as an increased risk of potential significant compensation to consumers following price increases that could prove illegal, according to European consumer law.

Elmera Group (Sell, TP: NOK24.00) - Likely to struggle to grow

We expect Q3 adj. EBIT slightly below consensus and Q3 2023 on flat net revenue and slightly higher costs YOY. While market churn is low, we believe Elmera Group is likely to struggle to grow due to its high prices and costs relative to competitors. We reiterate our SELL, but have raised our target price to NOK24 (23) on positive estimate revisions.

Renewable Weekly – 13 Sept 2024

On aggregate, the R&C stocks underperformed (equal weight) the MSCI Nordic by ~1% throughout the reporting season (10 July to today).

Renewable Weekly – 4 Sep 2024

A soft week for renewables: of our basket of 38 stocks, returns were positive for 10 and negative for 28 on the week.

Renewable Weekly – 30 August 2024

A soft week for renewables: of our basket of 38 stocks, returns were positive for 21 and negative for 17 on the week.

Renewable Weekly – 19 August 2024

Elmera Group (Sell, TP: NOK23.00) - Nordic losses dim the light

A mixed Q2 included EBIT above consensus but below our forecast, reflecting soft Consumer deliveries and a hefty Nordic loss, but a Business beat. We believe the new, larger bank facility should ease funding concerns once the Statkraft facility is replaced, but spreads are up. We reiterate our SELL and NOK23 target price.

Powering up core business

Better earnings and CF

Real clean EBIT 18% better, reported EBIT 14% better. "Consumer" strong (price hikes / margins). Underlying CF strong