reports
- Julia Pan Mengyao
- Ming San Soong
Trip.com (9961 HK): 4Q24: Earnings beat; continuous efforts in interna...
4Q24 results were better than expected. 4Q24 net revenue rose 23.5% yoy to Rmb12.8b, in line with consensus estimates. Non-GAAP net profit grew 13.6% yoy to Rmb3b, beating consensus forecasts by 6%. Net margin shrank 2ppt yoy to 23.8%, in line with consensus estimates. TCOM guided 1Q25 revenue growth of 14-19% yoy to Rmb13.8b, in line with consensus estimates. Maintain BUY with a lower target price of HK$630.00 (US$81.00).
- Greater China Research Team
- Julia Pan Mengyao
- Ming San Soong
Greater China Daily: Wednesday, February 26, 2025
KEY HIGHLIGHTS Results Trip.com (9961 HK/BUY/HK$462.00/Target: HK$630.00) 4Q24 results were better than expected. 4Q24 net revenue rose 23.5% yoy to Rmb12.8b, in line with consensus estimates. Non-GAAP net profit grew 13.6% yoy to Rmb3b, beating consensus forecasts by 6%. Net margin shrank 2ppt yoy to 23.8%, in line with consensus estimates. TCOM guided 1Q25 revenue growth of 14-19% yoy to Rmb13.8b, in line with consensus estimates. Maintain BUY with a lower target price of HK$630.00 (US$81.00...
- Jin Yoon
TCOM 4Q24 Results: Travel Demand Remains Resilient in 1Q
What’s new: Trip.com’s reported 4Q24 revs that were above consensus and our expectations. Travel demand during/post-CNY has remained resilient where TCOM could further gain market shares in both domestic and international markets. Margins could be adversely impacted by rev mix shift towards the pure international market segment. We maintain our PT at USD75. Analysts: Jin Yoon
- Tian Hou
TCOM: TCOM’s Potential Better 4Q2024 Performance and Better Long-Term ...
Based on our data, TCOM is set to deliver strong 4Q2024 results, exceeding market expectations, with Accommodation and Transportation Revenue growth serving as the primary drivers of its performance. Coupled with additional contributing factors, the company’s solid trajectory underscores its ability to capitalize on the recovery in the global travel industry. While the short-term drivers are promising, the long-term outlook is equally compelling. As younger travelers fuel demand across high-grow...
- Julia Pan Mengyao
- Ming San Soong
China Internet: Online Travel Agencies -- Spring Festival 2025 propell...
We saw resilient enthusiasm for travel during the Spring Festival 2025, with a 6% yoy growth in the number of trips bolstered by domestic and cross border travel demand. We expect OTA companies’ earnings growth in 2025 to be anchored by cost optimisation with AIGC integration and lower-tier cities penetration, but offset by normalising airfare trends coupled with moderating hotel ADR (yoy decline). Maintain OVERWEIGHT.
- Jin Yoon
- Julia Pan Mengyao
- Ming San Soong
China Internet: 1H25 outlook shaped by implications of fiscal stimuli ...
We saw largely in-line top-line growth across companies in 3Q24, mainly pressured by a lukewarm macro environment, but with earnings beat thanks to enhanced efficiency from AI integration. Alongside pending visibility on further domestic supportive policies, we believe the key 2025 highlights are: a) re-acceleration of e-commerce GMV growth, b) potential upside in ad take rate monetisation, c) rejuvenation of online games grossing, and d) sustained travel enthusiasm. Maintain MARKET WEIGHT.
JD JD.COM INC. SPONSORED ADR CLASS A
K3SD BAIDU INC SPONSORED ADR CLASS A
A117ME ALIBABA GROUP HOLDING LTD. SPONSORED ADR
3K1 KINGSOFT CORP. LTD.
00700 TENCENT HOLDINGS LTD.
PDD PINDUODUO INC. SPONSORED ADR CLASS A
03690 MEITUAN CLASS B
00780 TONGCHENG-ELONG HOLDINGS LIMITED
TCOM TRIP.COM GROUP LTD. SPONSORED ADR
BEKE KE HOLDINGS INC. SPONSORED ADR CLASS A
09988 ALIBABA GROUP HOLDING LTD.
09999 NETEASE INC
09618 JD.COM INC. CLASS A
01024 KUAISHOU TECHNOLOGY CLASS B
09888 BAIDU INC
02423 KE HOLDINGS INC.
09961 CTRIP.COM INTERNATIONAL
- Greater China Research Team
- Tham Mun Hon
Greater China Market Strategy: 2025 Year Ahead - De-risking And De-cou...
Expect increased market volatility in 1H25 as the US embarks on another round of trade rebalancing with China via higher tariffs. We expect China to roll out growth supportive policies on top of the de-risking measures that have been announced. Hence, we prefer a domestic orientation and policy beneficiaries for 1H25. Our MSCI China Index target is at 68pt, based on 7% EPS growth and 10.5x PE. The downside target is 51pt in the event of a full-fledged trade war. China is focusing on de-riskin...
GRU GEELY AUTOMOBILE HOLDINGS LIMITED
A0M4P7 HAN'S LASER TECHNOLOGY INDUSTRY GROUP CO. LTD. CLASS A
00688 CHINA OVERSEAS LAND & INVESTMENT LIMITED
EZQ CHINA MENGNIU DAIRY CO. LTD.
00241 ALIBABA HEALTH INFORMATION TECHNOLOGY LTD.
601668 CHINA STATE CONSTRUCTION ENGINEERING CORP. LTD. CLASS A
599A SANDS CHINA LTD.
00700 TENCENT HOLDINGS LTD.
2318 PING AN INSURANCE (GROUP) COMPANY OF CHINA LTD. CLASS H
2899 ZIJIN MINING GROUP CO. LTD. CLASS H
01810 XIAOMI CORP. CLASS B
03690 MEITUAN CLASS B
TCOM TRIP.COM GROUP LTD. SPONSORED ADR
3606 FUYAO GLASS INDUSTRY GROUP CO LTD-H
06690 HAIER SMART HOME CO. LTD. CLASS H
002920 HUIZHOU DESAY SV AUTOMOTIVE CO LTD
02618 JD LOGISTICS INC
09961 CTRIP.COM INTERNATIONAL
- Julia Pan Mengyao
- Ming San Soong
Trip.com (9961 HK): 3Q24: Solid earnings beat; stepped up investment f...
TCOM delivered a strong earnings beat for 3Q24. Net revenue rose 15.6% yoy to Rmb15.9b in the quarter, in line with consensus estimates. Non-GAAP net profit grew 21.8% yoy to Rmb6b, beating consensus estimates by 25%. Net margin expanded 2ppt yoy to 37.6%, beating our and consensus estimates. TCOM guided 4Q24 revenue growth of 17-22% yoy to Rmb12.1b-12.6b, in line with consensus estimates. Maintain BUY with a higher target price of HK$640.00 (US$81.00).
- Bella Lu Yifei
- Greater China Research Team
- Julia Pan Mengyao
- Ken Lee
- Ming San Soong
Greater China Daily: Wednesday, November 20, 2024
KEY HIGHLIGHTS Results Kingsoft Corp (3888 HK/BUY/HK$29.20/Target: HK$40.00) Kingsoft delivered strong 3Q24 results, beating estimates. Revenue grew 17.8% yoy to Rmb2.9b, exceeding consensus estimate. Gross margin grew 3ppt yoy to 84.2%, in line with consensus expectation. Non-IFRS operating profit came in at Rmb1.2b while operating margin jumped 20ppt yoy to 41% on robust revenue growth. Net profit came in at Rmb413m, with net margin expanding 14ppt yoy to 18.4%. Maintain BUY with a slightly ...
- Jin Yoon
TCOM 3Q24 Results: Travel Demand Remains Resilient
What’s new: Trip.com’s reported 3Q24 revs that were largely in-line with consensus and our expectations. Travel demand could remain resilient where TCOM could continue to gain market share in both domestic and international markets in 4Q. We up our PT from US$65 to US$75 on resilient travel demand. Our revised PT implies an 18.5x FY25E P/E. We maintain our BUY rating. Analysts: Jin Yoon
- Julia Pan Mengyao
- Ming San Soong
China Internet: Key takeaways from marketing trip.
The key concerns of investors include the sustainability of the recent rally and potential fundamental changes upon policy rollout. We think a valuation repair is underway with the upcoming 11.11 campaign and 3Q/4Q24 results release as a critical juncture. Investors are also becoming increasingly optimistic on mega-cap names such as Tencent, Meituan, Alibaba and JD in view of a favourable regulatory backdrop and stabilised competitive environment. Maintain MARKET WEIGHT.
JD JD.COM INC. SPONSORED ADR CLASS A
K3SD BAIDU INC SPONSORED ADR CLASS A
A117ME ALIBABA GROUP HOLDING LTD. SPONSORED ADR
3K1 KINGSOFT CORP. LTD.
002230 IFLYTEK CO. LTD. CLASS A
00700 TENCENT HOLDINGS LTD.
PDD PINDUODUO INC. SPONSORED ADR CLASS A
03690 MEITUAN CLASS B
00780 TONGCHENG-ELONG HOLDINGS LIMITED
2013 WEIMOB INC
TCOM TRIP.COM GROUP LTD. SPONSORED ADR
BEKE KE HOLDINGS INC. SPONSORED ADR CLASS A
09988 ALIBABA GROUP HOLDING LTD.
09999 NETEASE INC
09618 JD.COM INC. CLASS A
01024 KUAISHOU TECHNOLOGY CLASS B
09888 BAIDU INC
02423 KE HOLDINGS INC.
09961 CTRIP.COM INTERNATIONAL
- Julia Pan Mengyao
- Ming San Soong
China Internet: Government policy rollout to boost consumption and dri...
In view of a stronger-than-expected government policy rollout, we reckon that the improved consumption sentiment will benefit e-commerce, local life services and OTA companies. In 2H24, we expect the undemanding valuations of internet companies to be repaired by shareholder returns, cross-border expansion and easing competition. Meanwhile, we believe monetisation momentum will be fuelled by AIGC development and adtech upgrades. Maintain MARKET WEIGHT.
JD JD.COM INC. SPONSORED ADR CLASS A
K3SD BAIDU INC SPONSORED ADR CLASS A
A117ME ALIBABA GROUP HOLDING LTD. SPONSORED ADR
3K1 KINGSOFT CORP. LTD.
002230 IFLYTEK CO. LTD. CLASS A
00700 TENCENT HOLDINGS LTD.
PDD PINDUODUO INC. SPONSORED ADR CLASS A
03690 MEITUAN CLASS B
00780 TONGCHENG-ELONG HOLDINGS LIMITED
2013 WEIMOB INC
TCOM TRIP.COM GROUP LTD. SPONSORED ADR
BEKE KE HOLDINGS INC. SPONSORED ADR CLASS A
09988 ALIBABA GROUP HOLDING LTD.
09999 NETEASE INC
09618 JD.COM INC. CLASS A
01024 KUAISHOU TECHNOLOGY CLASS B
09888 PINDUODUO PDD US
02423 BAIDU INC
09961 KE HOLDINGS INC.
CTRIP.COM INTERNATIONAL
- Greater China Research Team
Greater China Strategy Alpha Picks: October Conviction Calls
The HSI and MSCI China surged 17.5% and 23.1% mom respectively in September, buoyed by the PBOC’s policy easing and supportive statements from the Politburo meeting. Looking ahead, we are keeping beneficiaries of an improved domestic consumption outlook in our stock picks and adding CATL, Geely and Plover Bay.
SXC SUNNY OPTICAL TECHNOLOGY (GROUP) CO. LTD.
01299 AIA GROUP LIMITED
00027 GALAXY ENTERTAINMENT GROUP LIMITED
00700 TENCENT HOLDINGS LTD.
2318 PING AN INSURANCE (GROUP) COMPANY OF CHINA LTD. CLASS H
03690 MEITUAN CLASS B
3933 THE UNITED LABORATORIES INTE
TCOM TRIP.COM GROUP LTD. SPONSORED ADR
300750 CONTEMPORARY AMPEREX TECHNOLOGY CO. LTD. CLASS A
2232 CRYSTAL INTERNATIONAL GROUP LTD
09961 CTRIP.COM INTERNATIONAL
1523 PLOVER BAY TECHNOLOGIES LTD (1523 HK)
- Julia Pan Mengyao
- Ming San Soong
China Internet: 2Q24 results wrap-up: Overall earnings beat; 2H24 outl...
2Q24 revenue growth was lukewarm, hampered by a subdued macro backdrop, but most earnings beats were delivered by internet companies. We expect consumers to continue switching to service- and experience-oriented, which will benefit OTA, local life services and online games amid the summer holiday period. Key catalysts in 2H24 that will drive internet companies’ valuation repair include shareholder returns, cross-border expansion, easing competition and more, in our view. Maintain MARKET WEIGHT.
JD JD.COM INC. SPONSORED ADR CLASS A
A117ME ALIBABA GROUP HOLDING LTD. SPONSORED ADR
3K1 KINGSOFT CORP. LTD.
002230 IFLYTEK CO. LTD. CLASS A
00700 TENCENT HOLDINGS LTD.
PDD PINDUODUO INC. SPONSORED ADR CLASS A
03690 MEITUAN CLASS B
00780 TONGCHENG-ELONG HOLDINGS LIMITED
2013 WEIMOB INC
TCOM TRIP.COM GROUP LTD. SPONSORED ADR
BEKE KE HOLDINGS INC. SPONSORED ADR CLASS A
09988 ALIBABA GROUP HOLDING LTD.
09999 NETEASE INC
09618 JD.COM INC. CLASS A
01024 KUAISHOU TECHNOLOGY CLASS B
02423 KE HOLDINGS INC.
09961 CTRIP.COM INTERNATIONAL
- Greater China Research Team
Greater China Strategy Alpha Picks: September conviction calls.
The MSCI China rose 0.8% in August, trailing the HSI’s 3.7%, as the former was weighed by the weaker performance of utilities, materials and consumer staples. Looking ahead, we opine that the Fed rate cut in Sep 24 should be priced in and we do not expect ratesensitive sectors to outperform. We are adding AIA, COLI, Desay SV, Galaxy Entertainment, Meituan, Ping An and The United Laboratories to our BUY list. We remain cautious on the EV sector, adding Li Auto to our SELL list.
SXC SUNNY OPTICAL TECHNOLOGY (GROUP) CO. LTD.
01299 AIA GROUP LIMITED
00027 GALAXY ENTERTAINMENT GROUP LIMITED
00700 TENCENT HOLDINGS LTD.
2318 PING AN INSURANCE (GROUP) COMPANY OF CHINA LTD. CLASS H
03690 MEITUAN CLASS B
3933 THE UNITED LABORATORIES INTE
TCOM TRIP.COM GROUP LTD. SPONSORED ADR
BEKE KE HOLDINGS INC. SPONSORED ADR CLASS A
002920 HUIZHOU DESAY SV AUTOMOTIVE CO LTD
02423 KE HOLDINGS INC.
2232 CRYSTAL INTERNATIONAL GROUP LTD
02015 LI AUTO INC
09868 XPENG INC
09961 CTRIP.COM INTERNATIONAL
- Julia Pan Mengyao
- Ming San Soong
Trip.com (9961 HK): 2Q24: Strong earnings beat; outbound and internati...
TCOM delivered a strong 2Q24 earnings beat. 2Q24 net revenue rose 13.5% yoy to Rmb12.8b and was 47% above 2019 levels, in line with consensus estimates. Non-GAAP net profit was Rmb5b, with net margin expanding 8.5ppt yoy to 39%, beating our and consensus estimates. TCOM guided for 3Q24 revenue growth of 11-16% yoy to Rmb15.3b-16b, in line with consensus estimates. Maintain BUY with a lower target price of HK$534.00 (US$68.00).
- Jin Yoon
TCOM 2Q24 Results: Travel Demand Remains Resilient
What’s new: Trip.com’s reported 2Q24 revs that were in-line with consensus but below our expectations. Travel demand remains resilient where total rev growth could be similar (or potentially better) in 3Q than 2Q. We maintain our PT at USD65. Analysts: Jin Yoon
- Greater China Research Team
Greater China Strategy Alpha Picks: August Conviction Calls
Chinese equities fell more than 2% in July, losing initial gains after the Third Plenum did not lead to new stimulus policies. For August, 1H24 results would be the catalyst for most stocks, and we expect earnings of EV names to be under pressure given the intense price competition. We add Cosco Shipping Ports, Haier Smart Home, and KE Holdings to our BUY list and SELL on WuXi Bio and XPeng to diversify away our market risk exposure.
ASM PACIFIC TECHNOLOGY LIMITED
SXC SUNNY OPTICAL TECHNOLOGY (GROUP) CO. LTD.
00700 TENCENT HOLDINGS LTD.
1211 BYD COMPANY LIMITED CLASS H
01801 INNOVENT BIOLOGICS INC.
TCOM TRIP.COM GROUP LTD. SPONSORED ADR
1199 COSCO SHIPPING PORTS LIMITED
BEKE KE HOLDINGS INC. SPONSORED ADR CLASS A
2269 WUXI BIOLOGICS (CAYMAN) INC.
06690 HAIER SMART HOME CO. LTD. CLASS H
02423 KE HOLDINGS INC.
2232 CRYSTAL INTERNATIONAL GROUP LTD
09868 XPENG INC
09961 CTRIP.COM INTERNATIONAL
- Jin Yoon
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