reports
- Chris Hoare
Indonesian Telcos Q3 25 review: Momentum expected into Q4
Mobile rebounded sharply after 4 quarters of declines, as the price up initiatives in 1H25 have started to flow through. To some extent though this is already reflected in consensus which expects momentum to continue into Q4, which are broadly in-line with the recalibrated guidance. YTD, XLSmart’s stock has been the outperformer and rightfully so given the anticipated synergies.
- Chris Hoare
- Chris Hoare
Bharti Airtel (Buy, INR 2,750 from INR 2,180, +32%) All cylinders fir...
Bharti has always performed well in anticipation of price increases, which we think are likely in H1 next year. The company also looks set to be seeing accelerating growth in both Home, and Enterprise, while Airtel Africa continues to knock it out of the park, and capex is constrained. What’s not to like? PT to 2,750.
- Alden Gabriel Lam
- Andrew Agita Buntoro
- Arsit Pamaranont
- Benyamin Mikael
- Carol Dou Xiao Qin
- Desmond Chong Chee Wai
- Greater China Research Team
- Heidi Mo Jinghui
- Jonathan Koh
- Kitpon Praipaisarnkit
- Krit Tanarattananon
- Lester Siew
- Malaysia Research Team
- Singapore Research Team
- Sunny Chen
- Suryaputra Wijaksana
- Tanapon Cholkadidamrongkul
- Thailand Research Team
- Vincent Khoo Boo Aik
- Willinoy Sitorus
Regional Morning Meeting Notes: Tuesday, November 04, 2025
Greater China Strategy | Alpha Picks: November Conviction Calls HSI and MSCI China fell 3.5%/4.0% mom in October, dragged by renewed US-China trade tensions and lack of fresh policy signals from the 4th Plenum. We remain constructive in the medium term but expect further consolidation as uncertainties persist. The best performer among our picks was SELL-rated Li Auto (+21.4% mom). For November, we rotate into oversold names with near-term upside: add AIA, LINK REIT, NAURA, Pinduoduo, PICC P&...
FCT FRASERS CENTREPOINT TRUST
00823 LINK REAL ESTATE INVESTMENT TRUST
544 CSE GLOBAL LTD.
C09 CITY DEVELOPMENTS LIMITED
02328 PICC PROPERTY & CASUALTY CO. LTD. CLASS H
BN2 VALUETRONICS HOLDINGS
SXC SUNNY OPTICAL TECHNOLOGY (GROUP) CO. LTD.
00285 BYD ELECTRONIC (INTERNATIONAL) CO. LTD.
01299 AIA GROUP LIMITED
IVL INDORAMA VENTURES PUBLIC CO. LTD.
TU THAI UNION GROUP PUBLIC COMPANY LIMITED
BUOU FRASERS LOGISTICS & COMMERCIAL TRUST
558 UMS HOLDINGS LIMITED
GFPT GFPT
C6L SINGAPORE AIRLINES LTD.
5347 TENAGA NASIONAL BHD
MINT MINOR INTERNATIONAL PUBLIC CO. LTD.
O39 OVERSEA-CHINESE BANKING CORPORATION LIMITED
002472 ZHEJIANG SHUANGHUAN DRIVELINE (A)
Q5T FAR EAST HOSPITALITY TRUST
D01 DAIRY FARM INTERNATIONAL HOLDINGS LIMITED
PDD PINDUODUO INC. SPONSORED ADR CLASS A
CDREIT CDL HOSPITALITY TRUSTS
YNS YINSON HOLDINGS BHD
RHBBANK RHB BANK BHD
SUN SUNTECH SA
KREIT KEPPEL REIT
MLT MAPLETREE LOGISTICS TRUST
VSI V.S. INDUSTRY BERHAD
PREIT PARKWAYLIFE REAL ESTATE
BURSA MAPLETREE INDUSTRIAL TRUST
PEP BURSA MALAYSIA BHD
RATCH PPB GROUP BERHAD
2633 RATCH GROUP PUBLIC CO. LTD.
HCM JACOBSON PHARMA CORP LTD
AIS HUTCHISON CHINA MEDITECH LIMITED
RSTON ADVANCED INFO SYSTEMS
FEH RIVERSTONE HOLDINGS LTD
UHU FOOD EMPIRE HOLDINGS LTD
FRKN UNITED HAMPSHIRE US REIT
MPM FRENCKEN GROUP LTD
CSSC MARCO POLO MARINE LTD
CRPU CHINA SUNSINE CHEMICAL HOLDINGS LTD
CICT SASSEUR REIT (S CHIP)
SCGP CAPITALAND INTEGRATED COMMERCIAL TRUST
LREIT SP SCG PACKAGING PCL
2269 LENDLEASE GLOBAL COMMERCIAL REIT
OXMU WUXI BIOLOGICS (CAYMAN) INC.
HMN PRIME US REIT
CLCT ASCOTT RESIDENCE TRUST
KORE CAPITALAND CHINA TRUST
OR KEPPEL PACIFIC OAK US REIT
MXNU PTT OIL AND RETAIL BUSINESS PUBLIC CO LIMITED
CLAR ELITE COMMERCIAL REIT MGNT PTE LTD
DCRU CAPITALAND ASCENDAS REIT
MTEL IJ DIGITAL CORE REIT MANAGEMENT PTE. LTD.
02161 PT DAYAMITRA TELEKOMUNIKASI
02015 JBM (HEALTHCARE) LTD
0303 LI AUTO INC
LAGENDA ALPHA IVF GROUP
SDG LAGENDA PROPERTIES BHD
BRMS IJ SD GUTHRIE BHD
AADI IJ BUMI RESOURCES MINERALS
002371 CH ADARO ANDALAN INDONESIA
ASL SP NAURA TECHNOLOGY GROUP CO LTD
ASL MARINE (ASL SP)
- Chris Hoare
- Chris Hoare
Thai Telcos – Q2 25 review: Sector discipline still in-tact
Thai telcos posted LSD service revenue growth, while EBITDA slowed to MSD. TRUE underperformed due to May’s power outage but still guided for 2H recovery on spectrum rental savings despite the guidance downgrade. While risks from soft tourism may persist, sector discipline and its value-based pricing approach remains intact.
- Chris Hoare
Thai Telcos Auction concludes, no major surprises
Thailand concluded its spectrum auction on Sunday and raised THB 41.3bn (US$ 1.26bn). Overall process was benign and results were as expected – AIS retained its 2100MHz share whilst TRUE won the 2300MHz and 1500MHz band; only the 850MHz was left unsold. Our brief thoughts below.
- Chris Hoare
Thai Telcos Q1 25 review: Steady Q1, incoming auction risk likely mod...
Thai telcos had a good run in 2024 and the momentum carried into Q1 2025 with steady service revenue and margin growth. However, weaker inbound tourism figures and the tariff overhang have raised concerns, contributing to the downward revision in GDP forecasts (1.8% to 1.1% in 2025).
- Chris Hoare
- Chris Hoare
- Chris Hoare
Telkom Indonesia (Buy, IDR 4,500, +76%) Q4 24 Quick Take: Buybac...
Against weak comps, trends improved, but fundamentally the picture remains challenged. The announced share buyback (IDR 3trn, 1.2% of outstanding) is welcome but probably won’t on its own be sufficient to turn the picture around. PT Telkom has disappointed with headwinds outside of Java and in Indihome. We remain Buyers on valuation but there is little in the trends here to suggest an operational turnaround is close.
- Chris Hoare
- Chris Hoare
MTN (Buy, TP: ZAR130, +13%) Q4 24: Solid quarter, FY24 dividend up
MTN has reported a solid set of Q4 results with service revenue and EBITDA trends accelerating and service revenue growth growing a touch above the MT guidance this quarter. The company announced a dividend of 345cts for FY24 (previous guide was for 330cts) and the Board anticipates paying a minimum ordinary DPS of 370cts after the FY25 results.
- Chris Hoare
- Chris Hoare
Indian Telcos Q3 FY25 review: Sustained margin expansion from July’s ...
Trends continued to benefit from last July’s tariff hike with sustained margin expansion across all three operators. Capex intensity is expected to moderate further for Bharti as network build decelerates, whereas VIL would accelerate its spending on the back of its 5G launch in March. India’s FWA development remains promising, with potential positive implications on EM Telcos
- Chris Hoare
Thai Telcos Thoughts on upcoming spectrum auction
We give our thoughts on pricing and total spend ahead of the upcoming THB 121bn (USD 3.6bn) spectrum auction in Thailand (likely in May 2025). Reserve prices seem reasonable, but the early auction of expiring 2027 spectrum means total spend this year is likely to be above our original forecasts.
- Chris Hoare
- Chris Hoare
EM FWA-Watch S-Curve continuing to accelerate in India, with implicat...
Indian FWA net adds continue to accelerate and reached roughly c. 2.1m in the December quarter. India is probably therefore now accounting for around 50% of global shipments. We continue to think this is a critical development, and likely to drive an S-curve of adoption in Global EM.
- Chris Hoare
TIM Brasil (Buy, TP: BRL22, +27%) New R$1bn share buyback plan approv...
TIM Brasil has approved a new share buyback plan, up to R$1bn (US$ 173m), which represents a significant uptick in overall shareholder remuneration. This is another positive development following its new medium term guidance. With a net cash position and 14% 2025 FCFE yield, the stock is a compelling Buy and represents one of our Top Picks in EM with a R$ 22 price target.
- Chris Hoare
LatAm Telcos: Outlook 2025 – Market repair continues, TIM Brasil and V...
Fundamentals continue to look pretty good to us in Latin America, with market repair continuing across wireless markets and further consolidation likely. Macro / political risk is probably the biggest issue. We upgrade TIM Brasil and Vivo to Buy. Price targets rise to BRL22 and BRL66 (from BRL19 and BRL57 ) respectively.
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