reports
- Chris Hoare
Thai Telcos Q3 24 review: Likely to beat full year guidance as market...
Despite Q3 being a seasonally weaker period, the industry delivered a better service revenue and EBITDA performance. Mobile improved on better prepaid numbers from AIS. Given how strong YTD numbers have been, it is very likely both will beat guidance. We stay bullish on the two with TRUE staying on as one of our top pick in EM Telcos.
- Chris Hoare
MTN (Buy, TP: ZAR130, +62%) Feedback from small group call
We hosted a small group Zoom call with MTN Group CEO, Ralph Mupita, MTN Group CFO, Tsholofelo Molefe and Head of IR, Thato Motlanthe last week. Tone was overall positive, with a particularly bullish conversation around consolidation across Africa.
- Chris Hoare
- Soomit Datta
- Soomit Datta
- Soomit Datta
TIM Brasil (Buy, TP: R$23, +43%) - Q3 24: In-line trends, Nubank and p...
TIM has delivered solid Q3s, with a small beat at EBITDAaL combined with lower capex intensity to support very strong OpFCF after leases (+23% y/y) this quarter. Growth trends are naturally easing through the year, which is captured within reiterated FY guidance, though is perhaps spooking the market.
- Soomit Datta
- Chris Hoare
- Chris Hoare
- Chris Hoare
Chinese Telcos Q3 24 review: Macro continues to impact the top line
Service revenue trend kept steady relative to Q2, albeit being slower than before due to macro headwinds. Yet earnings momentum continued to trend in the mid-single digits overall as we saw good cost control by China Telecom again (acceleration in EBITDA) while peers were cushioned by lower D&A costs (back by easing capex).
- Chris Hoare
- Chris Hoare
- David Lopes
Thai Telcos Q2 24 review: Strong momentum with continued margin uplif...
Thai operators delivered good margins uplift again, and TRUE upgraded guidance. After turning the corner in Q4, Thai mobile growth sustained in the 4% range on prepaid strength. With the outlook now positive , we stay bullish on the two with TRUE staying on as one of our top pick in EM Telcos.
- Chris Hoare
Chinese Telcos Q2 24 review: Strong earnings despite softer topline; ...
Despite the slowdown in service revenue trend from softer macro, Chinese operators still delivered a strong earnings growth. Interim dividends rose by 7-22% YoY as all three raised payout ratios. Despite the share prices already roughly doubling, we remain bullish on exposure to China’s structural enterprise theme, improving capital intensity and improved shareholder remuneration.
- Chris Hoare
Indian Telcos Q1 FY25 review: Slower mobile with modest rise in margi...
Indian mobile revenue rose steadily despite slowing this quarter due to softer ARPU trend. Both Bharti and Jio continue to take share from Vodafone Idea again. Mobile EBITDA kept ahead of topline with all three seeing YoY improvements in margin. Overall, Bharti remained ahead on both metrics.
- Chris Hoare
Bharti Airtel (Neutral, TP: INR 1,500, +3%) Bharti Global to acquire ...
Bharti Enterprise's investment arm, Bharti Global, has sought to acquire 24.5% stake in BT from Altice UK. Although Bharti Airtel is separately owned by Bharti Enterprise (through Bharti Telecom), we share our thoughts on why we perceive this to be a likely overhang on Bharti Airtel.
- Soomit Datta
TIMS3 (Buy, TP: BRL23, +32%) VIVT3 (Buy, TP: BRL61, +26%) AMX (Buy, TP...
TIM Q2s: As with Claro and Vivo, TIM delivered a robust set of Q2 results. Both revenue and EBITDA beat consensus by ~1% though at EBITDAaL TIM outperformed with a +5% beat, supported by stable Leases compared to Q1. Service revenue maintained consistent growth in-line with previous quarters (~7% y/y) from faster postpaid, and maintained negative prepaid. H1 EBITDA (and revenue) continued to trend slightly above the FY24 guidance. Despite management’s confidence in achieving targets for the year...
- Soomit Datta
- Chris Hoare
Singtel/AIS Merger of Intouch and Gulf Energy; VTO of AIS. Implicatio...
The merger between Intouch Holdings (where Singtel owns a 24.99% stake) and Gulf Energy was announced today. Following this, a waiver had been obtained to trigger a Voluntary Tender Offer (VTO) instead of a Mandatory Offer for 36.25% of AIS shares. We outline the implications for Singtel and AIS below.
- Chris Hoare
Indian Mobile India's auction concludes - Our final thoughts
India's spectrum auction concluded yesterday with 141.4 MHz of airwaves being sold across the 900 MHz, 1800 MHz, 2100 MHz and 2500 MHz band for INR 113 bn (US$ 1.36bn). Our proprietary spectrum analytics tool (SpectrumHub) suggests that prices paid were largely in line with the reserve prices, and close to our original expectations.
- Chris Hoare
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