reports
- Chris Hoare
Thai Telcos Auction concludes, no major surprises
Thailand concluded its spectrum auction on Sunday and raised THB 41.3bn (US$ 1.26bn). Overall process was benign and results were as expected – AIS retained its 2100MHz share whilst TRUE won the 2300MHz and 1500MHz band; only the 850MHz was left unsold. Our brief thoughts below.
- Chris Hoare
Thai Telcos Q1 25 review: Steady Q1, incoming auction risk likely mod...
Thai telcos had a good run in 2024 and the momentum carried into Q1 2025 with steady service revenue and margin growth. However, weaker inbound tourism figures and the tariff overhang have raised concerns, contributing to the downward revision in GDP forecasts (1.8% to 1.1% in 2025).
- Chris Hoare
- Chris Hoare
Thai Telcos Thoughts on upcoming spectrum auction
We give our thoughts on pricing and total spend ahead of the upcoming THB 121bn (USD 3.6bn) spectrum auction in Thailand (likely in May 2025). Reserve prices seem reasonable, but the early auction of expiring 2027 spectrum means total spend this year is likely to be above our original forecasts.
- Chris Hoare
Global EM Telcos & Towers Introducing the NSR Global EM Telco & Tower...
In a separate note published last week we introduced the NSR GEM-Top 8. However, many of the stocks in that list are not liquid and so, given the tailwinds we now see in the Telco industry we introduce a second list – the GEM Telco & Towers Liquid Compounders; large cap, well-managed telcos in attractive markets at cheap valuations that are likely to generate market-beating returns over time. These are the best large cap investments in the Global EM Telco & Towers space we think.
- Chris Hoare
Thai Telcos Q3 24 review: Likely to beat full year guidance as market...
Despite Q3 being a seasonally weaker period, the industry delivered a better service revenue and EBITDA performance. Mobile improved on better prepaid numbers from AIS. Given how strong YTD numbers have been, it is very likely both will beat guidance. We stay bullish on the two with TRUE staying on as one of our top pick in EM Telcos.
- Chris Hoare
- David Lopes
Thai Telcos Q2 24 review: Strong momentum with continued margin uplif...
Thai operators delivered good margins uplift again, and TRUE upgraded guidance. After turning the corner in Q4, Thai mobile growth sustained in the 4% range on prepaid strength. With the outlook now positive , we stay bullish on the two with TRUE staying on as one of our top pick in EM Telcos.
- Chris Hoare
Singtel/AIS Merger of Intouch and Gulf Energy; VTO of AIS. Implicatio...
The merger between Intouch Holdings (where Singtel owns a 24.99% stake) and Gulf Energy was announced today. Following this, a waiver had been obtained to trigger a Voluntary Tender Offer (VTO) instead of a Mandatory Offer for 36.25% of AIS shares. We outline the implications for Singtel and AIS below.
- Chris Hoare
- Chris Hoare
Thai Telcos Q4 23 review: Turning the corner as ARPU grew after more ...
Thai operators witnessed a notable uptick in growth as industry mobile ARPU reverted to growth after more than three years. EBITDA also bounced higher led by TRUE, setting the stage for 9-11% growth in FY24. Guided capex also suggests moderating capex intensity which is key driver of ROIC upside. The outlook is turning more optimistic than before, validated by our recent visit of the two telcos.
- Chris Hoare
Thai Telcos Takeaways from Meetings with the Thai Telcos in Bangkok
Our meetings with the two Thai operators (& NBTC) validate our view of a benign mobile dynamic, supported by improving tourism, and sharp capex reductions. Both operators remain focused on profitable growth. TRUE seems very confident on synergy delivery.
- Chris Hoare
ASEAN Telcos Outlook 2024; Continued market repair in Indonesia, Thai...
After a decent 2023, in 2024 we are likely to see further evidence of market repair in Thailand, Malaysia and Indonesia driven by consolidation in both Mobile and Broadband. The economic outlook in the region is generally positive too, helped by post-Covid tailwinds, and China decoupling.
- Chris Hoare
Thai Telcos Q3 23 review: Market continues to repair
Market repair drove faster revenue growth and rising margins for both AIS and TRUE. For mobile, AIS is finally back to positive ARPU YoY growth after fourteen quarters of YoY declines. This suggests to us that the outlook turning more optimistic than before.
- Chris Hoare
- Chris Hoare
AIS (Buy, TP: THB285, +28%) AIS (Buy) – Thai regulator greenlights th...
Last Friday, the NBTC has approved the acquisition of Triple T Broadband (3BB) by AIS. This moves the Thai operator up to the top spot in the fixed broadband market with c.36% on our estimates. The remedies were fairly reasonable in our view.
- Chris Hoare
Feedback from Meetings with AIS and True in Thailand
Our meetings with the two Thai operators validate our view of a benign mobile dynamic, supported by improving tourism, easing inflation and lower energy costs. Importantly, both operators are focused on profitable growth whilst capex is also shifting in the right direction.
- Chris Hoare
Thai Telcos Q2 23 review: Moving in the right direction; further boos...
Thai telcos reported a decent quarter, with the outlook turning more optimistic than before. Topline, mobile ARPU growth, alongside margins and capex are all moving in the right direction. Additional tailwind would come in the form of the THB10k(USD280) payout per adult which was introduced by the new government, while aiming to lower energy costs and further promote tourism in the country
- Chris Hoare
- David Lopes
Thai Telcos Tale of the tape
The picture for Thai telcos is turning positive with clear signs of mobile recovery, driven by softer competition and inflation. Recent political uncertainty has led to slower growth in recent months we think, but growth in both Broadband and Enterprise is structural and should rebound as the political fog clears. In an improving market, AIS remains our top pick.
- Waritthorn Kaewmuang
True Corporation (TRUE TB) - 2Q23: Heavy Losses On One-Off Items; Sign...
TRUE posted a large net loss in 2Q23 due to a few one-off items. However, there are signs of positive improvement following the amalgamation in Mar 23 on the back of limited ARPU reduction and EBITDA margin expansion. Despite disappointing 1H23 results, the worst should have passed and a considerable improvement is expected in 2H23. Upgrade to BUY. Target price: Bt8.20.
- Arsit Pamaranont
- Benjaphol Suthwanish
- Kasemsun Koonnara
- Tanaporn Visaruthaphong
- Waritthorn Kaewmuang
Thailand Daily - Monday, July 31, 2023
KEY HIGHLIGHTS Results True Corporation (TRUE TB/BUY/Bt7.20/Target: Bt8.20) 2Q23: Heavy losses on one-off items; signs of improvement observed. Upgrade to BUY. Update Central Pattana (CPN TB/BUY/Bt66.75/Target: Bt80.00) 2Q23 results preview: Expect earnings to increase 21% yoy and 2% qoq. PTT Oil & Retail Business (OR TB/BUY/Bt21.10/Target: Bt29.00) 2Q23 results preview: Expect earnings to decrease qoq and yoy. Ratchaburi Group PCL (RATCH TB/BUY/Bt35.00/Target: Bt50.00) Share price correction...
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