reports
- Chris Hoare
- Chris Hoare
- Chris Hoare
- Chris Hoare
Airtel Africa (Buy, TP: GBP1.5, +42%) Q4 24: Decent, Solid top line b...
Airtel Africa has published a decent set of Q4 results. Top line performance remained strong, service revenue growth in local currency came in above consensus expectations and above our expectations. EBITDA trends slowed (but remained decent given the macro context in Q1) and margins came in 1pp below consensus and us.
- Soomit Datta
VIVT3 (Buy, TP: BRL61, +23%) Vivo - Solid underlying Q1s – headline E...
Underlying Q1 trends remained robust at Vivo, with revenue in-line (+7% y/y growth) and headline EBITDA missing (1.5%) only due to other items in the cost base (gains/sales) fluctuating. Excluding this and underlying EBITDA of +9% y/y was steady on Q4, and comparable to TIM’s +10% (reported yesterday). Vivo’s mobile service revenue was the strongest in Brazil vs peers, offset slightly by lower fixed growth (the more volatile data/IT business slowing this quarter).
- Soomit Datta
- Soomit Datta
TIMS3 (Buy, TP: BRL23, +24%) TIM Brasil - Solid Q1s, trending ahead o...
TIM reported solid Q1 24 earnings overnight, coming in a shade of ahead of estimates (1% at EBITDA). Service revenue growth remains robust at >7% y/y, with some seasonality potentially impacting Q1 pre-pay revenue; EBITDA of +10% y/y and EBITDAaL +20% y/y is also very strong (and well ahead of 4% inflation), the latter enjoying historic lease reductions (though these are now sequentially stabilising). Q1 trends are tracking a touch above FY guide, potentially enabling further earnings uplift.
- Soomit Datta
AMX (Buy, TP: $24, +25%) Why a seemingly (quite) healthy Telco just f...
WOM Chile filed for Chapter 11 last month (April 1), followed a couple of weeks later by a local filing for WOM Colombia. Two filings in one month. Colombia’s relatively modest financing difficulties were likely sealed by the Chilean filing and we review events in Chile to work out how a seemingly successful scaled wireless operator (close to 25% market share of service revenue, 37% EBITDA margins) ended up here.
- Soomit Datta
AMX(Buy, TP: $24, +24%) Televisa (Neutral, $3.5, +11%) Megacable (Neut...
The market continued to eek out broadband growth in Q1, with Megacable leading the charge. We applaud management’s execution here and the double digit revenue and EBITDA growth, though this now seems embedded in expectations; we think it’s time to close out Megacable stock gains (30% YTD), trading on a 5.5% EFCF yield for 2025. Our target remains MXN55, though we have taken out the probability of cable-cable deal synergies, offset by upgrades following Q1s.
- Chris Hoare
Indonesian Telcos Q4 23 review: Strong execution from XL and Indosat;...
Despite Telkom being hit by a series of one-offs in Q4, industry mobile revenue and ARPU trends are still reflective of the benign competitive landscape. EBITDA also improved for both XL and Indosat, with capex intensity improved across the board. Moreover, recent news flow suggests that the XL and Smartfren merger is closer than before. Finally, we also raised our price target for Indosat to IDR12.5k from IDR11k as we layer on higher broadband revenue as it vies for share in the fixed industry.
- Chris Hoare
- Chris Hoare
Chinese Telcos Q4 23 review: Outperformance by China Telecom; bullish...
China Telecom was the clear outperformer for service revenue growth this quarter and for the full year too, driven by an acceleration in Enterprise. Industry EBITDA trend was less upbeat in Q4 as China Mobile and Unicom declined. Both capex and dividend guidance were bullish; industry capex expected to lower by 5% while payout is expected to trend above 75% over the next three years (by 2026) for China Mobile and China Telecom.
- Soomit Datta
AMX (Buy, TP: $24, +40%) AMX - Q1 24: Accelerating revenue and EBITDA...
AMX reported strong Q1 numbers after close, coming in ~2% ahead of consensus revenue and EBITDA. Growth accelerated (to 5% y/y from 3.7% in Q4) coming from Mexico and Brazil, and both fixed and wireless. Brazil EBITDA also saw strong support on the cost side. Capex was down y/y in Q1, in keeping with the FY 24 guide (~$7 billion, down from $8.8 billion in 2023); we expect mid-term capex to be provided at the upcoming May 7th Investor Day, and see potential for consensus estimates to come down he...
- Chris Hoare
- Chris Hoare
Thai Telcos Q4 23 review: Turning the corner as ARPU grew after more ...
Thai operators witnessed a notable uptick in growth as industry mobile ARPU reverted to growth after more than three years. EBITDA also bounced higher led by TRUE, setting the stage for 9-11% growth in FY24. Guided capex also suggests moderating capex intensity which is key driver of ROIC upside. The outlook is turning more optimistic than before, validated by our recent visit of the two telcos.
- Chris Hoare
- Chris Hoare
- Chris Hoare
African Telcos Deep dive on Fintech valuations; stay Bullish on AAF a...
We deep dive on African Telco’s Fintech valuations in this note which is a follow up of our higher-level note Show me the (Mobile) Money. African Telcos are becoming more active about unlocking value from Mobile Money (MoMo) with MTN’s recent deal with Mastercard and now rumours that AAF is looking to IPO its MoMo business. Global Fintech/Payments multiples have derated over the past couple of years, but we continue to see great value in the African Telco’s MoMo assets which remain one the key n...
- Chris Hoare
Thai Telcos Takeaways from Meetings with the Thai Telcos in Bangkok
Our meetings with the two Thai operators (& NBTC) validate our view of a benign mobile dynamic, supported by improving tourism, and sharp capex reductions. Both operators remain focused on profitable growth. TRUE seems very confident on synergy delivery.
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