New Street Research - MTN (MTN) ... Nigerian Telcos Still weathering the (macro) storm

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New Street Research

Chris Hoare

EUR 9284.00 For Business Accounts Only

Nigerian Telcos Still weathering the (macro) storm

Nigerian telcos continue to perform well from a top line and KPIs perspective. Market service revenue growth accelerated in Q4 with both MTN and AAF growing underlying service revenue by 25% YoY.

23/04/2024 1 EN

Underlyings

MTN

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MTN Group Limited

MTN Group is a holding company engaged in the investment in the telecommunications industry offering voice services via 2G and 3G networks, including prepaid and postpaid airtime, please-call-me message service, international roaming, electronic voucher distribution services and community payphones, mobile and fixed data products, including short message service (SMS), multimedia message services, internet access, MTN MobileMoney, content portal MTN Play, Google SMS information services, USSD services and corporate data services. Co.'s operations are divided into the following three regions: South and East Africa, West and Central Africa, and the Middle East and North Africa.

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ZAE000042164 Johannesburg Stock Exchange South Africa

MTN Nigeria Communications Plc

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Provider

New Street Research

Provided by our team of experienced analysts, our work is idea driven, based on independence of thought, sector expertise, and firmly focussed on fundamentals and valuation.

New Street Research is an independent, partner-owned, research firm specialising in equity and debt research. Our equity research embraces the following sectors:

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Pan European Telecom Services and Cable

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Analysts

Chris Hoare

Other Reports on these Companies

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MTN (Buy, TP: ZAR130, +42%) MTN Ghana – Q1 24: Good start to the year

MTN Ghana has reported a good set of Q1 results. Service revenue growth accelerated and continued to grow well above inflation. EBITDA trends slowed but remain solid. Capex intensity was down vs. Q1 last year. Medium guidance for Service Revenue growth (“high twenties %”) has been reiterated. The macro is expected to remain challenging in 2024. However, there has been an encouraging slow down in inflation over Q1.

EUR 9284.00

May 2, 2024 May 2, 2024 1 EN

New Street Research

South African Telcos South African Telcos - CY23 H2 review – Modest improvements

H2 was a better semester for the SA Telcos. Service revenue and EBITDA trends improved and capex – while still above historic levels – was contained. However, improvements were modest as the environment remains difficult and growth remains limited.

EUR 9284.00

May 1, 2024 May 1, 2024 1 EN

New Street Research

MTN (Buy, TP: ZAR130, +42%) MTN Nigeria – Q1 24 Quick Take: Strong top line, weak EBITDA/bottom line (as expected), cutting capex with negative implication for IHS

MTN Nigeria has reported a mixed set of results. Top line was quite strong, but EBITDA and the bottom line came in under pressure (as expected), driven mainly by the Naira devaluation in Q1. The company is cutting capex for this year.

EUR 9284.00

April 30, 2024 April 30, 2024 1 EN

Frontier Model Update

This note focuses on changes to the model following 1Q24 results. Earlier today, we published a review of results and comprehensive thoughts following the earnings call. The changes to estimates are minor. Our long-term thesis remains unchanged. Price target is $52.

EUR 9284.00

6h / 2m 6h / 2m 1 EN

Jonathan Chaplin

Jonathan Chaplin

FYBR: quick thoughts following the call Part 2

We commented earlier on the implications of the delay in the analyst day. In this follow up, we cover: 1) the growth / margin trade-off; 2) fiber broadband ARPU growth; 3) SAC growth; 4) EBITDA growth; 5) fiber penetration; 6) ACP; 7) fiber net adds. We covered what we expect for the strategic review in our quick take on results this morning.

EUR 9284.00

7h / 46m 7h / 46m 1 EN

Jonathan Chaplin

Jonathan Chaplin

FYBR quick thought following the call

In this quick note we touch on our thoughts around the delay in the analyst day. We will follow up shortly with further thoughts on operating and financial trends.

EUR 9284.00

14h / 35m 14h / 35m 1 EN

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Nigerian Telcos Still weathering the (macro) storm

MTN (Buy, TP: ZAR130, +42%) MTN Ghana – Q1 24: Good start to the year

South African Telcos South African Telcos - CY23 H2 review – Modest improvements

MTN (Buy, TP: ZAR130, +42%) MTN Nigeria – Q1 24 Quick Take: Strong top line, weak EBITDA/bottom line (as expected), cutting capex with negative implication for IHS

Frontier Model Update

FYBR: quick thoughts following the call Part 2

FYBR quick thought following the call

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