ISAT reported 1Q24 EBITDA of Rp6.5t, up 22% yoy (+0.6% qoq), in line with our and consensus expectations, thanks to mobile data (+14% yoy) and multimedia, data communication, and internet revenue (+36% yoy). The cellular subscriber base slightly expanded 2.3% yoy (mostly from outer Java). ISAT’s ARPU jumped 14% yoy, but slightly declined 3% qoq due to seasonality. We conservatively expect modest EBITDA growth (+6% yoy) in 2024. Downgrade to HOLD. Target price: Rp11,400.
Bukalapak.com (BUKA IJ/BUY/Rp123/Target: Rp270): 1Q24: Records positive EBITDA for the first time in its history. GoTo GoJek Tokopedia (GOTO IJ/HOLD/Rp66/Target: Rp70): 1Q24: Loss improves by 77.7% − ahead of expectations. Indosat (ISAT IJ/HOLD/Rp10,625/Target: Rp11,400): 1Q24: EBITDA up 22% yoy with stable EBITDA margin vs 4Q23. Downgrade to HOLD. Jasa Marga (JSMR IJ/BUY/Rp5,025/Target: Rp7,300): 1Q24: NPAT rises 17.8% yoy on robust toll revenue growth. Results within expectations. TRADERS’...
GREATER CHINA Sector Consumer: Tourism and catering strong performances during the Labour Day holiday. INDONESIA Results Bukalapak.com (BUKA IJ/BUY/Rp123/Target: Rp270): 1Q24: Records positive EBITDA for the first time in its history. GoTo GoJek Tokopedia (GOTO IJ/HOLD/Rp66/Target: Rp70): 1Q24: Loss improves by 77.7% − ahead of expectations. Indosat (ISAT IJ/HOLD/Rp10,625/Target: Rp11,400): 1Q24: EBITDA up 22% yoy with stable EBITDA margin vs 4Q23. Downgrade to HOLD. Jasa Marga (JSMR IJ/BUY/Rp5...
For Apr 24, our Alpha Picks portfolio rose 0.4% mom on an equal-weighted basis, underperforming the STI slightly by 1.7ppt. It was a mixed performance from our portfolio with the top performers being MPM, BAL and CD while FRKN, LREIT and ST underperformed. Our Alpha Picks portfolio has outperformed the STI in three out of the past four months. For May 24, we add FEHT, MPACT, GENS; remove BAL, LREIT and CLAS.
GREATER CHINA Strategy Alpha Picks: May Conviction Call: Adding CR Beer, Crystal, Geely, Haier, Kuaishou, Ningbo Tuopu, Pinduoduo, Shenzhou, and Tencent to our BUY list, closing out SELL calls. INDONESIA Strategy Alpha Picks: Slight Outperformance In A Bear Market: Our picks are BSDE, TLKM, ACES, BBTN, CMRY, SIDO, JSMR and AKRA. MALAYSIA Strategy Alpha Picks: Well-Positioned For 1Q Results Season: Our April picks again beat the KLCI. May 24 picks: GENM, Inari, Mah Sing, MrDIY, MYEG, Press Meta...
GREATER CHINA Strategy Alpha Picks: May Conviction Call Adding CR Beer, Crystal, Geely, Haier, Kuaishou, Ningbo Tuopu, Pinduoduo, Shenzhou, and Tencent to our BUY list, closing out SELL calls. Small-Mid Cap Monthly Reiterate BUY on Crystal International. Sector Automobile Weekly: EV sales pick up; take...
The JCI declined 3.3% in Apr 24 and our portfolio managed to outperform slightly, delivering a -3.2% return. The biggest gainers were SIDO (+15.2%), EXCL (+6.8%) and ACES (+3.7%). The largest losers were BBTN (-17.6%), MAPI (-16%) and CTRA (-9.8%). We think the JCI is likely to deliver another negative return in May 24. We removed EXCL, MAPI and CTRA, and add TLKM and BSDE. Our picks are BSDE, TLKM, ACES, BBTN, CMRY, SIDO, JSMR and AKRA.
Strategy: Alpha Picks: Slight Outperformance In A Bear Market: Our picks are BSDE, TLKM, ACES, BBTN, CMRY, SIDO, JSMR and AKRA. Astra Agro Lestari (AALI IJ/SELL/Rp6,425/Target: Rp5,715): 1Q24: Within expectations. Maintain SELL as we are concerned with its flat FFB production growth, lower mill utilisation rate and weak downstream margin. Bank Mandiri (BMRI IJ/BUY/Rp6,325/Target: Rp7,300): 1Q24: Net profit up 1.1% yoy, slightly below expectations. Maintain BUY with a lower target price. Trime...
EXCL recorded net profit of Rp539b in 1Q24 (above our and consensus expectations). Maintain BUY and raise target price to Rp2,900 on several factors: a) a gradual increase in ARPU to an all-time level of Rp44,000; b) solid EBITDA growth (24% yoy) with margin expansion; c) an 8% qoq rise in 1Q24 EBITDA, stronger than its peers (Telkomsel and Indosat); and d) good balance sheet quality (1Q24 net debt/EBITDA: 0.6).
Bank Negara Indonesia (BBNI IJ/BUY/Rp5,250/Target: Rp6,300): 1Q24: Net profit up 2.0% yoy, lower CoC drives net profit growth. Cisarua Mountain Dairy (CMRY IJ/BUY/Rp4,980/Target: Rp5,500): 1Q24: NPAT up 30% yoy – ahead of consensus expectation. PP London Sumatra (LSIP IJ/HOLD/Rp865/Target: Rp930): 1Q24: Results within expectations. Triputra Agro Persada (TAPG IJ/BUY/Rp625/Target: Rp700): 1Q24: Results within expectations. Expect 2Q24 earnings to be higher qoq and yoy. XL Axiata (EXCL IJ/BUY/...
GREATER CHINA Sector Macau Gaming Apr 24 GGR down 5% mom; downgrade to MARKET WEIGHT. Results China Construction Bank (939 HK/BUY/HK$5.10/Target: HK$6.00) 1Q24: Results in line with better NIM performance. LONGi Green Energy Technology (601012 CH/SELL/Rmb18.20/Target: Rmb14.38) 2023/1Q24: Below expectations; inventory write-down wipes out earnings. Downgrade to SELL. PICC Property and Casualty (2328 HK/BUY/HK$9.71/Target: HK$11.70) 1Q24: Earnings miss on higher COR and lower investment income...
GREATER CHINA Results China Merchants Bank (3968 HK/BUY/HK$34.95/Target: HK$44.00) 1Q24: Earnings miss on muted fee income and higher cost-to-income ratio. China Resources Building Materials Tech (1313 HK/BUY/HK$1.34/Target: HK$1.83) 1Q24: Mixed bag of results; regaining cement market share. Foxconn Industrial Internet (601138 CH/BUY/Rmb24.52/Target: Rmb29.10) 1Q24: Margins miss likely due to product mix, AI business remains robust. Haier Smart Home (6690 HK/BUY/HK$27.10/Target: ...
Singtel announced an 11-year A$1.6b network sharing deal with TPG in regional Australia, receiving around A$900m of incremental cashflows over 11 years. However, we expect minimal near-term earnings impact for Singtel. The group also announced S$3.1b of non-cash impairment provisions, which will result in a net loss for 2HFY24. This was largely due to a significant S$2b impairment on Optus, dragged by the enterprise segment. Maintain BUY with the same target price of S$2.99.
KEY HIGHLIGHTS Results Mapletree Pan Asia Commercial Trust (MPACT SP/BUY/S$1.26/Target: S$1.89): 4QFY24: Turning around towards an upward trajectory. Wilmar International (WIL SP/HOLD/S$3.34/Target: S$3.35): 1Q24: Results below our expectations due to weaker-than-expected margins from feed & industrial products despite higher sales volume. Update Singapore Telecommunications (ST SP/BUY/S$2.35/Target: S$2.99): Striking a deal in regional Australia. TRADERS’ CORNER Jardine Cycle & Carriage (JCN...
Despite Telkom being hit by a series of one-offs in Q4, industry mobile revenue and ARPU trends are still reflective of the benign competitive landscape. EBITDA also improved for both XL and Indosat, with capex intensity improved across the board. Moreover, recent news flow suggests that the XL and Smartfren merger is closer than before. Finally, we also raised our price target for Indosat to IDR12.5k from IDR11k as we layer on higher broadband revenue as it vies for share in the fixed industry.
SingTel announced two separate pieces of news today: 1) Optus' network sharing agreement with TPG, and 2) S$3.1bn of non-cash write down related to Optus and its Australian Enterprise businesses. As news flow was overshadowed by the latter, shares were down 3% today.
GREATER CHINA Sector Automobile Weekly: EV sales rebound for two weeks in a row, but price war intensifies. Maintain UNDERWEIGHT. Top SELLs: BYD, Li Auto and XPeng. Top BUYs: CATL and Yadea. Results ASMPT (522 HK/BUY/HK$102.30/Target: HK$120.00) 1Q24: Solid results, more positive updates to advanced packaging business. EVE Energy (300014 HK/SELL/ Rmb34.27/Target: Rmb20.00) ...
The Eid al-Fitr celebration drove Telkomsel’s data traffic up by 13% vs normal days. Telkomsel’s convergence penetration reached 45% progress in Mar 24 (Jul 23: 37%). Maintain BUY with an unchanged target price of Rp4,400 considering its strong balance sheet, historically cheap valuation (-2SD of EV/EBITDA, amid external geographical tension), and dividend enticement (potential yield of around 5%).
With Bharti in sight of US$100bn market cap and SingTel languishing after the abortive sale of a stake in Optus, SingTel’s stake in Bharti is now worth the same as SingTel’s entire market cap. This also means that SingTel’s SOP discount is at all-time highs of 50%. In this note we look at how management could address this through buybacks, and what the accretion impact of selling stakes in Bharti to buy back SingTel shares would be.
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