MTN Rwanda has reported a decent set of Q4 results. Top line trends remained robust, but EBITDA trends slowed. The company has maintained its medium-term guidance for service revenue growth and EBITDA margins but has cut its capex guide and although net income is back into positive territory this year, the BoD has recommended no dividends for 2025.
MTN Nigeria has reported another strong set of results. The company has maintained its MT guidance for service revenue growth (“at least the low 20%”) and upgraded its MT guidance for EBITDA margins, from “53-55%” to “mid to high 50%”
Orange presented its vision for the next 3 years in Paris today. We attended, and give our initial thoughts in this short piece. In summary, we are Buyers of Orange, and heard enough to stay long-term positive on the name (even ex M&A). The cash story we wrote about at the time of the MasOrange (MO) buy-in (HERE) is coming through.
After a quiet few weeks, press releases from the consortium this morning confirm that talks are still ongoing, and that due diligence is happening. The French press are reporting on a March deadline. We look at the implications of the release and reports in this short note.
Over the past 3 years, the EU telecoms sector has had a great run – up >50%, despite modest underlying revenue/ EBITDA growth. This has almost entirely come from a deserved upwards re-rating in the multiple as the risk profile across the sector diminishes – which has been a key theme of ours in the past few years given improved regulation. So, we feel this has now largely played out.
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