reports
- Chris Hoare
GEM Telcos: Consolidation – THE theme driving improved trends for EM T...
Earlier this month we published on how Global EM Telco Capex is falling rapidly, in large part driven by consolidation. On average EM Telco markets have fallen from a peak of 7 players to under 3. We expect many to end up with 2, or even a single network. How much further far might this cut capex?
- Chris Hoare
- Chris Hoare
- Chris Hoare
Airtel Africa (Buy, TP: 300p, +90%) Q4 25: Solid finish; underlying t...
Airtel Africa has reported a solid set of Q4 results with a continued improvement in underlying trends and lower than expected capex. However, shares are down 8% today. We think this is driven by the delay in the IPO of the Mobile Money business to H1 2026 and the lack of commentary around the second tranche of the share buyback as well as some profit taking. Operationally trends are strong and so we remain Buyers with a price target of 300p.
- Chris Hoare
- Chris Hoare
MTN (Buy, TP: ZAR190, +60%) MTN Rwanda – Q1 25: Still mixed but MT gu...
MTN Rwanda has reported a somewhat mixed set of Q1 numbers. On the one hand, service revenue trends slowed, impacted by strong competition. On the other hand, EBITDA growth is back into positive territory and low capex spend this quarter translated into solid OpFCF
- Chris Hoare
Global EM Telcos & Towers Still rising – NSR GEM Top-10 May ‘25 Updat...
Despite global volatility our EM Top Picks posted positive returns again in April and now up 34% YTD on average. As we have been arguing for some time EM Telco is a much better space than it used to be and this is now being reflected by the market it seems.
- Chris Hoare
- Russell Waller
Orange (Buy, TP: €15.4, +24%) Q1 25: Solid numbers, guidance reiterat...
Orange has reported a solid set of results, with Telco revenue and EBITDA in-line with consensus expectations; the important French SR trends are slightly weaker (but ahead of consensus expectations), but all guidance for Group and divisions (including France) has been reiterated.
- Ben Rickett
- James Ratzer
- Russell Waller
EU TELCOS: What a recessionary scenario might look like
When the news of the Trump tariffs first hit the tapes, we didn’t write anything initially as a) we didn’t think we had much of value to add to the thousands of column inches already written on the topic, and b) the direct impact from the tariffs to the EU telecoms sector is minimal – resulting in relative outperformance for the group over the past few days.
- Chris Hoare
- James Ratzer
- Russell Waller
M&A policy update – thoughts from Brussels and London with Pablo Asbo
It’s pretty clear that in-market M&A is a hot topic which we addressed in more detail in our recent sector M&A note. One of the reasons why speculation is rising about further deals is twofold we think: 1. Recent remedies in UK and Spain were non-intrusive in a historical context, making the deals attractive on a net basis; and 2. Politicians seem to be becoming more amenable to M&A, most notably Mario Draghi, and some are hoping that regulatory/legislative support will follow.
- Chris Hoare
- Chris Hoare
- Russell Waller
Orange (Buy, TP: €15.7, +35%) Altice France (SFR) (Most Preferred) Ili...
We were in Barcelona for the MWC this week. Please reach out if you would like to discuss any of the myriad of announcements made there. The biggest Telcos seemed to have focused their fire on in-market consolidation, with comments by the CEOs of Orange, DT and Telefonica.
- Chris Hoare
Global EM Telcos & Towers NSR GEM Top-10 March ‘25 Update: February a...
February was another good month for our top EM Telcos, now up 15% YTD on average. This note also includes key news & other thoughts in order to help investors generate alpha within the EM Telco space. With performance strong so far, we make no changes to our picks.
- Chris Hoare
Airtel Africa (Buy, TP: £2, +45%) Bharti Airtel to buy 5% of Airtel A...
Bharti Airtel has announced it intends to acquire 5% of Airtel Africa (which it already owns 57% of) and intends to complete this by March 31st2025. Airtel Africa are also currently in the process of executing a $100m share buyback in 2 tranches with the first $50m to be completed by April 24th 2025. AAF’s last RNS suggested the company has so far bought back $22m of this, leaving $38m still to be executed in the first tranche
- Russell Waller
- Chris Hoare
Airtel Africa Q3 25: Strong beat with headline revenue resuming growth...
Airtel Africa shares jumped by 10% today after delivering a strong beat, with reported topline and EBITDA ahead of expectations by 5%. Reported revenue growth inflected to positive territory as East Africa improved whilst both local currency revenue and EBITDA accelerated. Separately, the group has reiterated its full year guidance for continued margin improvement and capex spending between $725m and $750m. AAF is one of our NSR GEM top picks for 2025, and we are Buyers with a GBp 200 price targ...
- Russell Waller
Orange (Buy, TP: €15.1, +48%) Altice France (Most Preferred) Iliad (Eq...
Last week we reported in our tariff tracker, HERE, that some prices had risen in France. Since then, there have been further positive changes, including Iliad yesterday and Bouygues today, which we outline in this short report.
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