reports
- Chris Hoare
- Chris Hoare
- Russell Waller
- Chris Hoare
- Chris Hoare
- Chris Hoare
- Russell Waller
Orange (Buy, TP: €16.2, +15%) Q3 25: Solid numbers, Group EBITDAaL gui...
Orange has reported a solid set of results, with Telco revenue and EBITDA in-line with consensus expectations; Bank losses are lower than expected and Group EBITDAaL guidance has been lifted as a result (despite a small downgrade to OBS guidance).
- Russell Waller
Orange (Buy, TP: €16.4, +21%) Bouygues (Buy, TP: €54, +39%) Altice Fra...
After months of speculation, there is finally an offer for SFR in France. The deal structure is a lot more complicated than we thought it would be, but we think the offer is a fair one. We think the offer implies a synergy payment of €4.2bn, and values the SFR equity at €15/share, if XpFibre, UltraEdge, ATS, Intelcia, and FOT are indeed worth €4bn, as the release suggests.
- Russell Waller
- Russell Waller
Altice France equity (Neutral, TP: €10.3, -14%) Altice France bonds (E...
The price war at the low end of the French mobile market, which began at the beginning of summer 2024, and which we have written about extensively (HERE, HERE, HERE and HERE), appears to be coming to an end, thanks to some tariff changes that should lead to higher APRUs. We show some new work on tariffs in France in this short report, that should be good for all the MNOs.
- Russell Waller
Altice France equity (Neutral, TP: €10.3, -14%) Altice France bonds (E...
New Altice France debt and equity is now trading. Given the material change in bond terms, and the creation of a new separately traded equity piece, we reassess our rating, and think that at these levels the bonds look pretty fairly valued, and so take the bond rating to Equal weight from Overweight (the old bonds ended up +20% from the lows), and initiate on the equity with a Neutral, as we think that the equity is already implying a high probability of a deal happening, and see minimal underli...
- Chris Hoare
South African Telcos Solid H1 but expect prepaid weakness; CY25 H1 re...
Despite a small slowdown in MSR trends, the SA market saw further improvements in total revenue growth, EBITDA and OpFCF margins in H1. Telkom continued to gain revenue share in mobile, driven by prepaid while Vodacom continued to gain share in fixed. Trends on the SA market have been improving since two years ago, helped by the reduction in loadshedding and an improvement in the macro environment.
- Chris Hoare
Sub-Saharan African Telecoms Another good performance; Q2 25 review
The Sub-Saharan African (SSA) operators performed well again in Q2 with service revenue trends accelerating further, and stable OpFCF margins. MTN was the outperformer in terms of both local currency and $ top line performance in Q2, Airtel performed well too. Nigeria has contributed meaningfully this quarter, with local currency growth there accelerating to above 60%. The full effect of the price increase in Nigeria has helped and we expect another strong performance
- Chris Hoare
Nigerian Telcos Q2 25 review: Very strong; Upgrade MTN and AAF price ...
Local currency growth accelerated to above 60% in Q2 (from 40% in Q1), driven by a full quarter impact from the 50% price increase approval, and the improving macro. EBITDA performance in Q2 was very strong for both players and especially for MTN.
- Russell Waller
Altice France (Overweight) Bouygues (Buy, TP: €52, +39%) Iliad (Equal ...
There have been a few recent reports that the sale process for XpFibre has heated up. It has been suggested that a sale might eventually be pulled and the stake used as a sweetener in any eventual deal; but actually, a sale could also be the first domino in the whole M&A process, as an XpFibre sale would help to ease leverage concerns that Bouygues might have from acquiring SFR. We still think a SFR-Bouygues deal is more likely than not by year end, and that Bouygues is the best way to play this...
- Chris Hoare
- Chris Hoare
- Chris Hoare
- Russell Waller
Orange (Buy, TP: €15.8, +19%) MasOrange (Equal Weight) It’s not all a...
We have been long-term Buyers of Orange, and are pleased about the YTD share price performance (+37% vs the sector +10%). Some of that outperformance is probably due to the prospect of French market repair (France is 56% of the value), but actually it is the Spanish and AME divisions that cause our target to rise to €15.8 from €14.9 post the Q2 results.
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