New Street Research - Orange (ORA) Orange (Buy, TP: €15.1, +43%) Q4 24: EBITDA beat, some good EBITDA/FCF guidance; growth undervalued

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New Street Research

Russell Waller

EUR 9594.00 For Business Accounts Only

Orange (Buy, TP: €15.1, +43%) Q4 24: EBITDA beat, some good EBITDA/FCF guidance; growth undervalued

Orange has reported a good set of results, with Telco EBITDA c+1.2% ahead of consensus, and has lifted FCF guidance for 2025 by c3%, and guided to EBITDA c1% ahead of consensus for FY25.

13/02/2025 1 EN

Underlying

Orange

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New Street Research

Provided by our team of experienced analysts, our work is idea driven, based on independence of thought, sector expertise, and firmly focussed on fundamentals and valuation.

New Street Research is an independent, partner-owned, research firm specialising in equity and debt research. Our equity research embraces the following sectors:

Pan European Telecom Services and Cable
US Telecoms, Cable, Satellite and Towers
Global Emerging Market Telecoms
Japan Telecoms
Asian Internet
Pan European Healthcare
Global healthcare thematic research

We provide debt research on:

Pan European Telecom Services and Cable

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Analysts

Russell Waller

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Mas Orange (Equal Weight) Q4 24: Good results, new leverage target seems to imply c€4bn of delevering

MasOrange (MA) has reported a solid set of numbers, subs continue to grow nicely, and EBITDA growth has accelerated. MA has given a new mid-term ND/EBITDAaL target of 2.75x, which we think implies c€4bn of net deleveraging, but disclosure is poor, and so we may have to wait until the JV is formally announced before being able to properly reconcile the new leverage number to proceeds and JV financials. It was though confirmed on both the Orange and MA calls that 100% of the proceeds will be used for delevering.

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Orange (Buy, TP: €15.1, +43%) Q4 24: EBITDA beat, some good EBITDA/FCF guidance; growth undervalued

Orange (Buy, TP: €15.1, +48%) Altice France (Most Preferred) Iliad (Equal Weight)

European Telecoms: The Year Ahead 2025 Ongoing regulatory support allowing for superior FCF growth

Mas Orange (Equal Weight) Q4 24: Good results, new leverage target seems to imply c€4bn of delevering

NSR Policy Spectrum Battles: A Field Guide

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