reports
- Ben Rickett
- James Ratzer
- Russell Waller
EU TELCOS: What a recessionary scenario might look like
When the news of the Trump tariffs first hit the tapes, we didn’t write anything initially as a) we didn’t think we had much of value to add to the thousands of column inches already written on the topic, and b) the direct impact from the tariffs to the EU telecoms sector is minimal – resulting in relative outperformance for the group over the past few days.
- Chris Hoare
- James Ratzer
- Russell Waller
M&A policy update – thoughts from Brussels and London with Pablo Asbo
It’s pretty clear that in-market M&A is a hot topic which we addressed in more detail in our recent sector M&A note. One of the reasons why speculation is rising about further deals is twofold we think: 1. Recent remedies in UK and Spain were non-intrusive in a historical context, making the deals attractive on a net basis; and 2. Politicians seem to be becoming more amenable to M&A, most notably Mario Draghi, and some are hoping that regulatory/legislative support will follow.
- Russell Waller
Orange (Buy, TP: €15.7, +35%) Altice France (SFR) (Most Preferred) Ili...
We were in Barcelona for the MWC this week. Please reach out if you would like to discuss any of the myriad of announcements made there. The biggest Telcos seemed to have focused their fire on in-market consolidation, with comments by the CEOs of Orange, DT and Telefonica.
- Chris Hoare
Global EM Telcos & Towers NSR GEM Top-10 March ‘25 Update: February a...
February was another good month for our top EM Telcos, now up 15% YTD on average. This note also includes key news & other thoughts in order to help investors generate alpha within the EM Telco space. With performance strong so far, we make no changes to our picks.
- Chris Hoare
Airtel Africa (Buy, TP: £2, +45%) Bharti Airtel to buy 5% of Airtel A...
Bharti Airtel has announced it intends to acquire 5% of Airtel Africa (which it already owns 57% of) and intends to complete this by March 31st2025. Airtel Africa are also currently in the process of executing a $100m share buyback in 2 tranches with the first $50m to be completed by April 24th 2025. AAF’s last RNS suggested the company has so far bought back $22m of this, leaving $38m still to be executed in the first tranche
- Russell Waller
- Chris Hoare
Airtel Africa Q3 25: Strong beat with headline revenue resuming growth...
Airtel Africa shares jumped by 10% today after delivering a strong beat, with reported topline and EBITDA ahead of expectations by 5%. Reported revenue growth inflected to positive territory as East Africa improved whilst both local currency revenue and EBITDA accelerated. Separately, the group has reiterated its full year guidance for continued margin improvement and capex spending between $725m and $750m. AAF is one of our NSR GEM top picks for 2025, and we are Buyers with a GBp 200 price targ...
- Russell Waller
Orange (Buy, TP: €15.1, +48%) Altice France (Most Preferred) Iliad (Eq...
Last week we reported in our tariff tracker, HERE, that some prices had risen in France. Since then, there have been further positive changes, including Iliad yesterday and Bouygues today, which we outline in this short report.
- Chris Hoare
- Chris Hoare
African & EMEA Telcos & Towers Outlook 2025; Catching back what was l...
The last 2 years have been tough for African Telcos, with strong macro headwinds driving currency weakness and cost pressures. However, we exited 2024 with some signs that trends are inflecting. AAF remains our top pick in Africa as it offers Bharti-style execution at a fraction of the multiple, and VEON our top pick overall.
- Chris Hoare
Global EM Telcos & Towers Themes and Top picks for 2025
We remain constructive on EM Telcos despite the major stocks generally performing well through 2023 and 2024. As the long telco cycle inflects, and the industry consolidates, conditions still seem ripe for GDP+ revenue growth and rising ROIC we think. In this note, we run through the themes we think investors should follow in 2025. In a separate note, also published today we introduce the NSR EM Telco – Top 8, our top EM picks in the Telco and Towers space.
- Chris Hoare
Global EM Telcos & Towers Introducing the NSR Global EM Telco & Tower...
This note introduces the NSR GEM-Top 8, which will be a regularly updated list of our preferred Telcos and Towers in Global Emerging Markets. In a separate note out today, we run through the key themes that we see driving the EM Telco and Towers sector in 2025
- Chris Hoare
- Ben Rickett
- James Ratzer
- Russell Waller
European Telecoms: The Year Ahead 2025 Ongoing regulatory support all...
2024 saw the best outperformance for the telecoms sector since 2013 (and the third best since 2000) and ironically this came in a year with one of the lowest announced M&A volumes. We believe this is a testament to improved perception of the underlying fundamentals.
- Chris Hoare
- Chris Hoare
Vodacom (Buy, TP: ZAR150, +45%) Feedback from small group call with C...
We hosted a small group Zoom call with Vodacom CEO, Shameel Joosub, Vodacom CFO, Raisibe Morathi and Head of IR, JP Davids earlier this week. As with our previous call with MTN, (feedback HERE) the tone was positive. It would appear we are at an inflection point for telcos both in sub-Saharan Africa, and South Africa, and remain Buyers of Vodacom with a ZAR150 price target. Thoughts and feedback below.
- Chris Hoare
- Russell Waller
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