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Carole Braudeau
  • Carole Braudeau

Morning Crédit 15/05/2024

Air France-KLM : Nouvelle émission obligataire IGT : T1 2024 largement au-dessus des attentes, permettant un relèvement de la guidance >...

Carole Braudeau
  • Carole Braudeau

Credit Morning 05/14/2024

Iliad prices € 150m and $ 200m taps on the new Iliad Holding 2031 bonds Grifols: S&P confirms the B corporate rating with a stable outlook (vs. B/cw negative) Delivery Hero: sale of foodpanda to Uber for $ 950m + capital increase of € 300m>...

Stephane Beyazian
  • Stephane Beyazian

Vodafone : A new Vodafone for 2025 but still under pressure in Germany

>2025 targets pro forma for disposals stable versus 2024 - For FY 2025, Vodafone aims for pro forma adjusted EBITDAaL of € 11bn (in line with the consensus at € 10.8bn) and pro forma adjusted FCF of at least € 2.4bn (in line with the consensus forecast of € 2.35bn). These pro forma targets are broadly stable from one year to the next and are adjusted for the sale of Vodafone Italy, Vodafone Spain and forex impacts. The priorities for 2025 are as expected: strateg...

Carole Braudeau
  • Carole Braudeau

Morning Crédit 14/05/2024

Iliad abonde les obligations Iliad Holding 2031 à hauteur de 150 m EUR et 200 m USD Grifols : S&P confirme le rating corporate B avec une perspective stable (vs. B/cw negative) Delivery Hero : cession de foodpanda à Uber pour 950 m USD + augmentation de capital réservée de 300 m USD>...

Stephane Beyazian
  • Stephane Beyazian

Vodafone : Un nouveau Vodafone pour 2025 mais toujours sous pression e...

>Des objectifs 2025 pro forma des cessions stables versus 2024 - Pour l'exercice 2025, Vodafone vise un EBITDAaL ajusté pro forma de 11 Md€ (en ligne avec un consensus de 10,8 Md€) et un FCF ajusté pro forma d’au moins 2,4 Md€ (en ligne avec un consensus de 2,35 Md€). Ces objectifs pro forma sont globalement stables d'une année sur l'autre et sont ajustés de la vente de Vodafone Italie, de Vodafone Espagne et des impact Forex. Les priorités pour 2025 sont sans su...

Chris Hoare
  • Chris Hoare

Vodacom (Neutral, TP: ZAR130, +42%) Q4 24: Mixed; Good top line and E...

Vodacom reported a mixed set of results. Service revenue and EBITDA trends were good and came in 2% ahead and 0.4% ahead of consensus respectively. The beat was mainly driven by Egypt, which posted strong trends this quarter. SA and International saw a deceleration in trends. HEPS and DPS came in 10% and 16% below consensus (on an half yearly basis) respectively, and DPS was 12% lower vs. FY23.

Chris Hoare
  • Chris Hoare

Airtel Africa (Buy, TP: GBP1.5, +42%) Q4 24: Decent, Solid top line b...

Airtel Africa has published a decent set of Q4 results. Top line performance remained strong, service revenue growth in local currency came in above consensus expectations and above our expectations. EBITDA trends slowed (but remained decent given the macro context in Q1) and margins came in 1pp below consensus and us.

Chris Hoare
  • Chris Hoare

MTN (Buy, TP: ZAR130, +38%) MTN Uganda – Q1 24 Quick Take: Good start...

MTN Uganda has reported a good set of Q1 numbers with both service revenue and EBITDA trends accelerating vs. Q3. The company has maintained its medium-term guidance.

Chris Hoare
  • Chris Hoare

MTN (Buy, TP: ZAR130, +39%) MTN Rwanda – Q1 24 Quick take: Slow start...

MTN Rwanda has reported a slower set of Q1 numbers. Revenue and EBITDA continue to be impacted by the MTR cut and margins were also impacted by the One Network Area initiative and to a lesser extent by the depreciating RWF vs. the USD.

Chris Hoare
  • Chris Hoare

MTN (Buy, TP: ZAR130, +42%) MTN Ghana – Q1 24: Good start to the year

MTN Ghana has reported a good set of Q1 results. Service revenue growth accelerated and continued to grow well above inflation. EBITDA trends slowed but remain solid. Capex intensity was down vs. Q1 last year. Medium guidance for Service Revenue growth (“high twenties %”) has been reiterated. The macro is expected to remain challenging in 2024. However, there has been an encouraging slow down in inflation over Q1.

Chris Hoare
  • Chris Hoare

South African Telcos South African Telcos - CY23 H2 review – Modest i...

H2 was a better semester for the SA Telcos. Service revenue and EBITDA trends improved and capex – while still above historic levels – was contained. However, improvements were modest as the environment remains difficult and growth remains limited.

Chris Hoare
  • Chris Hoare

Nigerian Telcos Still weathering the (macro) storm

Nigerian telcos continue to perform well from a top line and KPIs perspective. Market service revenue growth accelerated in Q4 with both MTN and AAF growing underlying service revenue by 25% YoY.

Stephane Beyazian
  • Stephane Beyazian

Vodafone : Adjustments to forecasts with exit from Spain

>Disposal of Spain, ahead of the upcoming divestment of Italy - We have downgraded our forecasts to reflect the disposal of Spain (but our forecasts do not include the divestment of Italy pending the regulatory agreement): we have reduced our sales estimates by 15% from FY 2025 (to € 40bn), by 5% for EBITDAal (to € 12.2bn) and by 12% for FCFaL (to € 2.6bn). The EPS impact is, however, not significant, as the Spanish unit is not profitable.Pro-forma FY 202...

Stephane Beyazian
  • Stephane Beyazian

Vodafone : Ajustements des prévisions avec la sortie de l’Espagne

>Cession de l’Espagne, avant celle à venir de l’Italie - Nous révisons à la baisse nos prévisions pour intégrer la cession de l’Espagne (nos prévisions n’intègrent toutefois pas encore la cession de l’Italie dans l’attente de l’accord réglementaire) : nous abaissons de 15% nos estimations de CA à partir de FY 2025 (à 40 Md€), de 5% en EBITDAal (à 12,2 Md€) et de 12% en FCFaL (à 2,6 Md€). L’impact BPA est toutefois non significatif, l’activité espagnole n’étant pas pro...

Bruno Cavalier ... (+3)
  • Bruno Cavalier
  • Emira Sagaama
  • Stephane Beyazian

ODDO BHF Small & MIDCAP MORNING NEWS - 09/04/2024 Date Performance dep...

Nous réitérons notre recommandation Surperformance (conviction Midcap Europe) avec un objectif de cours et des prévisions de résultats relevés. L’optimisme est de rigueur sur les perspectives d’activité, les marges offrent encore un potentiel d’amélioration, le bilan est sous-leveragé, les multiples de valorisation restent attractifs et le fondateur achète des actions. - ...

Bruno Cavalier ... (+3)
  • Bruno Cavalier
  • Emira Sagaama
  • Stephane Beyazian

ODDO BHF Small & MIDCAP MORNING NEWS - 04/09/2024 Date Performance sin...

We reiterate our Outperform recommendation on the stock (European midcap top pick). We have revised up our target price and earnings forecasts. Bright prospects ahead for revenues, still room for margin improvement, the balance sheet is underleveraged, valuation multiples remain attractive and the founder is buying shares. - ...

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