EME Equity Market – October 2025 Hungarian BUX leads in October, Türkiye and Greece lag. The MSCI EM Europe Index added 3.5% mom in EUR terms and 1.8% mom in USD terms in October. The Hungarian BUX was the top performer, adding 9.1% mom in EUR terms; followed by the Polish WIG20 (+5.9% mom) and the Romanian BET (+5.4% mom) (in EUR terms). The Czech PX was also in the green (+2.8% mom in EUR terms). The Greek ASE and the Turkish ISE30 (-1.9% mom and -1.1% mom, in EUR terms, respectively) both los...
HEADLINES: • Santander Bank Polska: solid 3Q25 bottom line, but waiting for a change of strategic investor NEUTRAL • Alior Bank: 3Q25 results do not bring much to the table NEUTRAL • Zabka: 3Q25 a notch above the consensus POSITIVE • DataWalk: preliminary 3Q25 results – sales up 59% yoy, to PLN 7.34m POSITIVE • OMV: 3Q25 results – CCS EBITDA above estimates POSITIVE • OMV Petrom: 3Q25 results – net income beat NEUTRAL • Borouge: 3Q25 results – broadly in line NEUTRAL • Solutions by STC: 3Q25 fin...
HEADLINES: • Hidroelectrica: water should yield more (SELL - transfer of coverage) • MONETA Money Bank: posts solid 3Q25 results NEUTRAL • Orange Polska: 3Q25 results – EBITDAaL up 4% yoy, 2% above the consensus; 2025E guidance reiterated POSITIVE • Kety: full 3Q25 results fully in line with the preliminaries NEUTRAL • Sarantis: 3Q trading update slightly below expectations; FY25E guidance maintained NEGATIVE • MOL: to become a holding company NEUTRAL • Warsaw Stock Exchange: CEO favours Poland ...
We think that the robust outlook for Polish economic growth should offset mid-term uncertainty on fiscal policy and political risk. We have made a slight upward revision to our forecasts for pre-tax profit (by 1% to 4%) but lowered our EPS forecasts by 21% for 2026e and 4% for 2027e. After factoring in the full impact of the new tax bill, we have adjusted our target prices but remain cautiously positive on Polish banks. We favour mBank (upgrade to Outperform) for its upbeat long-term outlook and...
HEADLINES: • Premier Energy: focus on RES (HOLD - initiation of coverage) • Polish banks: FinMin may raise CIT rate for the banks, some offset may come from slight cut in the bank tax NEGATIVE • Dino: 1-5% EBITDA miss in 2Q25; FY25E lfl guidance cut to mid-single digits NEGATIVE • Budimex: final 2Q25 results fully confirm prelims NEUTRAL • Kazatomprom: 2Q25 results NEUTRAL • Mo-BRUK: earnings call takeaways – optimistic outlook for 2H25E POSITIVE • Cyfrowy Polsat: key takeaways from the 2Q25 ear...
We see this news as outright negative, which could halt the robust share price performance of the Polish banks, for some time at least. One aspect is the direct financial impact of the proposed tax regime change for the sector, and another is that such a change could reduce trust in the stability of the operating backdrop of banking (and other sectors, potentially) in Poland. This could result in international investors applying a higher market risk premium to the Polish market, going forward, i...
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