Balder X will be the Q4 focus

Valuation update

In this note, we show updated valuation statistics for the E&P sector.

Benelux Morning Notes

NSI: Positive news on fiscality, market and valuations. Var Energi: Production at the lower end of expectations. Events Calendar

Balance sheet issue?

Q4 trading update slightly on the weak side

Q4 - yet another strong quarter

Energy Morning - 27 January 2025

Five reasons why we prefer AkerBP over Vår Energi

Weekly news, topics & discussion

This week, OKEA published a solid Q4 trading update, with net production of 37.8kboed well above our 32.4kboed estimate, leaving full-year production at 39.1kboed, at the top end of its 37–39kboed guidance. In other news, BW Energy announced it is targeting an FID for Maromba in Q1, with capex expected around USD1.2bn (~USD1.0bn previously). Also, the Norwegian Offshore Directorate’s (NOD) preliminary production figures for December show production was down ~5% YOY.

Soft NCS production in December

The Norwegian Offshore Directorate’s (NOD) preliminary NCS figures for December showed soft liquids production of 2,018kboed (2% below forecast) and solid gas production of 361mcm/d (2% above forecast). Overall production was 4.29mmboed, up 1.2% MOM (in line with its forecast), but down 5.3% YOY. On a company level, Equinor, Vår Energi and DNO saw higher production MOM in November, while Aker BP (which has already reported Q4 production) and OKEA saw lower production MOM.

Valuation update

In this note, we show updated valuation statistics for the E&P sector.

NCS: Mixed December production

Aker BP Minor model adjustments

Following Aker BP’s Q4 trading update, we have adjusted our estimates. We do not consider these changes to be material, and we have not changed our BUY recommendation. We reiterate our NOK280 target price.

Weekly news, topics and discussion

This week, we released a sector update for our E&P coverage. We made minor changes to our oil and gas prices assumptions, but struggled to find an appealing risk/reward among our large caps, especially gas-heavy names. We favour Aker BP and Panoro Energy as our top picks, while Equinor remains a funding candidate. In other news, Equinor and Aker BP released Q4 trading statements. We view Equinor’s figures as neutral, and Aker BP’s as strong, due to solid production and realised oil and gas price...

AUCTUS ON FRIDAY - 17/01/2025

AUCTUS PUBLICATIONS ________________________________________ Corcel (CRCL LN)C; Target price of 1.00p per share: Initiating Coverage - Corcel is a ~£6 mm market cap AIM-listed E&P company focused on Portuguese-speaking Angola and Brazil. It offers a unique exposure to the prolific Kwanza onshore basin in Angola which reopened to international companies in 2021. Corcel is also building a portfolio of mature onshore producing assets in Brazil. The key asset in Angola is the KON-16 licence, which C...

Energy Morning - 16 January 2025

Limited prospects for re-rating

While our coverage universe has seen a strong start to the year, we have made minor alterations to our oil and gas price assumptions, as sanction-related upside potential appears to be priced in the Brent oil and share prices. Thus, we struggle to find an appealing risk/reward among the large caps, especially gas-heavy names, prompting us to downgrade Vår Energi and BlueNord to HOLD (BUY). We favour Aker BP and Panoro Energy as our top picks, while Equinor remains a funding candidate.

Energy Morning - 15 January 2025

NCS licensing round: fewer players, but high activity

Valuation update

In this note, we show updated valuation statistics for the E&P sector.