reports
- Steffen Evjen
Weekly news, topics & discussion
This week, Vår Energi reported Q1 results very much in line with expectations. The company also reaffirmed its 2025 guidance and maintained its dividend. Also, OKEA reported a solid Q1, with production and prices slightly above our estimates. While a technical goodwill impairment reduces its dividend basket for 2025, we view this as non-material, as we do not expect any dividends before 2027. Meanwhile, we are 5% below consensus on Q1e EBIT ahead of Equinor’s Q1 results on 30 April (07:00 CET), ...
- Steffen Evjen
Solid NCS production in March
The Norwegian Offshore Directorate’s (NOD) preliminary NCS figures for March showed liquids production of 1,972kboed (1.6% above its forecast) and gas production of 351mcm/d (0.4% above its forecast). Overall, production was 4.18mmboed (1.1% above its forecast), flat MOM, but down 4.9% YOY. Company-wise, the February production figures should be well known as most companies have already reported their production figures for Q1.
- Christoffer Wang Bjørnsen
Telenor (Sell, TP: NOK140.00) - Q1e slightly below consensus
We have made only limited estimate changes (except for an accounting change for the treatment of write-offs in associates) and are slightly below consensus on Q1e revenues, service revenues, adj. EBITDA, net profit and FCF. With Nordics opex cuts looking set to be back-end loaded this year, we expect Q1 to be a relatively uneventful quarter. We will look for more clarity on lower-quality cash flow tailwinds with regard to Telenor’s ability to cover its dividends with FCF before M&A this year, wh...
- Steffen Evjen
- Jørgen Lian
Another abrupt change
The US Trade Representative on 17 April published revised US port fees with significant changes to the initial proposal based on industry feedback. In its current form, the fees will primarily discourage use of Chinese-controlled maritime trade services to the US, and directly affect the use of Chinese-built vessels in US ports (with several considerable exemptions to avoid harm to US trade). The previous broader fees based on fleet composition and share of Chinese-built vessels has been scrappe...
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BESI BE SEMICONDUCTOR INDUSTRIES N.V.
NSI NSI N.V.
ULA UNIBAIL-RODAMCO-WESTFIELD SE STAPLED SECS CONS OF 1 SH UNIBAIL RODAMCO + 1 SH WFD UNIB ROD
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TE TECHNIP ENERGIES NV
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AM DASSAULT AVIATION
CTPNV CTP NV
SHEL SHELL PLC
ONE ONE UNITED PROPERTIES SA
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LI KLEPIERRE SA
COV COVIVIO SA
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GFC GECINA SA
GTT GAZTRANSPORT & TECHNIGAZ SA
NXI NEXITY SA CLASS A
SBMO SBM OFFSHORE NV
FLY SOCIETE FONCIERE LYONNAISE SA
GYC GRAND CITY PROPERTIES SA
FGA FIGEAC AERO SA
MERY MERCIALYS SA
RHM RHEINMETALL AG
SZG SALZGITTER AG
GXI GERRESHEIMER AG
OMV OMV AG
WHA WERELDHAVE N.V.
BLND BRITISH LAND COMPANY PLC
FII LISI SA
KOF KAUFMAN & BROAD SA
GOE GROUPE GORGE SA
ALTA ALTAREA SCA
VNA VONOVIA SE
ELG ELMOS SEMICONDUCTOR SE
TPE PVA TEPLA AG
ENI ENI S.P.A.
XIOR XIOR STUDENT HOUSING N.V.
SAF SAFRAN S.A.
AIR AIRBUS SE
ICAD ICADE SA
P2F PETROFAC LIMITED
REP REPSOL SA
BA. BAE SYSTEMS PLC
BYG BIG YELLOW GROUP PLC
COFB COFINIMMO SA
SOI SOITEC SA
SUN SULZER AG
TUB TUBACEX S.A.
ASM ASM INTERNATIONAL N.V.
SOC SUBSEA 7 S.A.
SIX2 SIXT SE
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LEG LEG IMMOBILIEN AG
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DKG DEUTSCHE KONSUM REIT-AG
VACN VAT GROUP AG
TRE TECNICAS REUNIDAS SA
TEC TECHNIPFMC PLC
LDO LEONARDO SPA
SNG SOCIETATEA NATIONALA DE GAZE NATURALE ROMGAZ SA
XFAB X-FAB SILICON FOUNDRIES SE
SNP PETROM S.A.
ASML ASML HOLDING NV
BP. BP P.L.C.
HOME NEINOR HOMES SA
AT1 AROUNDTOWN SA
MOL MOL HUNGARIAN OIL & GAS PLC CLASS A
PWG PRODWAYS GROUP SA
STM STMICROELECTRONICS NV
LAND LAND SECURITIES GROUP PLC
MVC METROVACESA SA
BESI BE SEMICONDUCTOR INDUSTRIES N.V.
NSI NSI N.V.
ULA UNIBAIL-RODAMCO-WESTFIELD SE STAPLED SECS CONS OF 1 SH UNIBAIL RODAMCO + 1 SH WFD UNIB ROD
ALKAL KALRAY SA
INS INSTONE REAL ESTATE GROUP AG
JEN JENOPTIK AG
AEDAS AEDAS HOMES SA
TOM2 TOMTOM NV
HAG HENSOLDT AG
VK VALLOUREC SA
WDP WAREHOUSES DE PAUW SCA
TE TECHNIP ENERGIES NV
AERO MONTANA AEROSPACE AG
ECMPA EUROCOMMERCIAL PROPERTIES NV
FUR FUGRO NV
AM DASSAULT AVIATION
WAGA WAGA ENERGY SA
CTPNV CTP NV
SHEL SHELL PLC
ONE ONE UNITED PROPERTIES SA
SPM SAIPEM S.P.A.
SHUR SHURGARD SELF STORAGE LIMITED
LAT LATECOERE
ARM ARM HOLDINGS PLC
R3NK RENK GROUP AG
TEN TENARIS S.A.
EXENS EXOSENS
VIRI VIRIDIEN
AMS AMS-OSRAM AG
- Christophe-Raphaël Ganet
- Jeremy Garnier
- Olfa Taamallah
- Yan Derocles
IFX INFINEON TECHNOLOGIES AG
FP TOTAL SE
PUB PUBLICIS GROUPE SA
RR. ROLLS-ROYCE HOLDINGS PLC
EQNR EQUINOR ASA
GALP GALP ENERGIA SGPS SA CLASS B
SLB.N SCHLUMBERGER NV
MC LVMH MOET HENNESSY LOUIS VUITTON SE
LI KLEPIERRE SA
COV COVIVIO SA
MTX MTU AERO ENGINES AG
HO THALES SA
GFC GECINA SA
GTT GAZTRANSPORT & TECHNIGAZ SA
NXI NEXITY SA CLASS A
ERIC B TELEFONAKTIEBOLAGET LM ERICSSON CLASS B
SBMO SBM OFFSHORE NV
FLY SOCIETE FONCIERE LYONNAISE SA
GYC GRAND CITY PROPERTIES SA
FGA FIGEAC AERO SA
MERY MERCIALYS SA
RHM RHEINMETALL AG
BEI BEIERSDORF AG
OMV OMV AG
WHA WERELDHAVE N.V.
BLND BRITISH LAND COMPANY PLC
FII LISI SA
KOF KAUFMAN & BROAD SA
GOE GROUPE GORGE SA
ALTA ALTAREA SCA
VNA VONOVIA SE
ELG ELMOS SEMICONDUCTOR SE
TPE PVA TEPLA AG
ENI ENI S.P.A.
XIOR XIOR STUDENT HOUSING N.V.
SAF SAFRAN S.A.
AIR AIRBUS SE
ICAD ICADE SA
P2F PETROFAC LIMITED
REP REPSOL SA
BA. BAE SYSTEMS PLC
BYG BIG YELLOW GROUP PLC
COFB COFINIMMO SA
SOI SOITEC SA
TUB TUBACEX S.A.
ASM ASM INTERNATIONAL N.V.
SOC SUBSEA 7 S.A.
AIXA AIXTRON SE
PFV PFEIFFER VACUUM TECHNOLOGY AG
CAI CA IMMOBILIEN ANLAGEN AG
ATS AT & S AUSTRIA TECHNOLOGIE & SYSTEMTECHNIK AKTIENGESELLSCHAFT
TEG TAG IMMOBILIEN AG
PKN POLSKI KONCERN NAFTOWY ORLEN S.A.
VASTB VASTNED RETAIL BELGIUM NV
SBO SCHOELLER-BLECKMANN OILFIELD EQUIPMENT AG
PSPN PSP SWISS PROPERTY AG
UBS UBM DEVELOPMENT AG
SPSN SWISS PRIME SITE AG
PAT PATRIZIA AG
MONT MONTEA SCA
AED AEDIFICA SA
CARM CARMILA SAS
LEG LEG IMMOBILIEN AG
CPINV CARE PROPERTY INVEST SA
WAF SILTRONIC AG
MELE MELEXIS NV
SAFE SAFESTORE HOLDINGS PLC
ARG ARGAN SA
VGP VGP NV
SMHN SUESS MICROTEC AG
COL INMOBILIARIA COLONIAL SOCIMI SA
DIC DIC ASSET AG
MERLIN MERLIN PROPERTIES SOCIMI S.A.
DKG DEUTSCHE KONSUM REIT-AG
VACN VAT GROUP AG
TRE TECNICAS REUNIDAS SA
TEC TECHNIPFMC PLC
LDO LEONARDO SPA
SNG SOCIETATEA NATIONALA DE GAZE NATURALE ROMGAZ SA
XFAB X-FAB SILICON FOUNDRIES SE
SNP PETROM S.A.
ASML ASML HOLDING NV
BP. BP P.L.C.
HOME NEINOR HOMES SA
AT1 AROUNDTOWN SA
MOL MOL HUNGARIAN OIL & GAS PLC CLASS A
STM STMICROELECTRONICS NV
LAND LAND SECURITIES GROUP PLC
MVC METROVACESA SA
BESI BE SEMICONDUCTOR INDUSTRIES N.V.
NSI NSI N.V.
ULA UNIBAIL-RODAMCO-WESTFIELD SE STAPLED SECS CONS OF 1 SH UNIBAIL RODAMCO + 1 SH WFD UNIB ROD
SIK SIKA AG
ALKAL KALRAY SA
INS INSTONE REAL ESTATE GROUP AG
JEN JENOPTIK AG
AEDAS AEDAS HOMES SA
HAG HENSOLDT AG
VK VALLOUREC SA
WDP WAREHOUSES DE PAUW SCA
TE TECHNIP ENERGIES NV
AERO MONTANA AEROSPACE AG
ECMPA EUROCOMMERCIAL PROPERTIES NV
FUR FUGRO NV
AM DASSAULT AVIATION
CTPNV CTP NV
SHEL SHELL PLC
ONE ONE UNITED PROPERTIES SA
SPM SAIPEM S.P.A.
SHUR SHURGARD SELF STORAGE LIMITED
LAT LATECOERE
ARM ARM HOLDINGS PLC
R3NK RENK GROUP AG
TEN TENARIS S.A.
EXENS EXOSENS
VIRI VIRIDIEN
AMS AMS-OSRAM AG
- Ahmed Ben Salem
- Baptiste Lebacq
ODDO : More cautious scenario amidst tensions on trade tariffs
The recent announcement of the application of trade tariffs by the Trump administration led to a sharp correction in oil prices amidst fears of an economic slowdown as a result of a full-blown trade war. We are adopting a more cautious scenario, with oil prices now expected to reach $ 67/b for 2025, $ 65/b for 2026 and $ 67/b in the longer term. Our 2025-2030 capex scenario has been lowered by 5% and our EPS expectations by 13% on average over 2025-2027, whilst our target prices have been lowere...
FP TOTAL SE
EQNR EQUINOR ASA
GALP GALP ENERGIA SGPS SA CLASS B
SLB.N SCHLUMBERGER NV
GTT GAZTRANSPORT & TECHNIGAZ SA
SBMO SBM OFFSHORE NV
OMV OMV AG
ENI ENI S.P.A.
P2F PETROFAC LIMITED
REP REPSOL SA
TUB TUBACEX S.A.
SOC SUBSEA 7 S.A.
PKN POLSKI KONCERN NAFTOWY ORLEN S.A.
SBO SCHOELLER-BLECKMANN OILFIELD EQUIPMENT AG
TRE TECNICAS REUNIDAS SA
TEC TECHNIPFMC PLC
SNG SOCIETATEA NATIONALA DE GAZE NATURALE ROMGAZ SA
SNP PETROM S.A.
BP. BP P.L.C.
MOL MOL HUNGARIAN OIL & GAS PLC CLASS A
VK VALLOUREC SA
TE TECHNIP ENERGIES NV
FUR FUGRO NV
SHEL SHELL PLC
SPM SAIPEM S.P.A.
TEN TENARIS S.A.
VIRI VIRIDIEN
- Ahmed Ben Salem
- Baptiste Lebacq
ODDO : Scenario plus prudent sur fond de tensions autour des droits de...
La récente annonce de mise en place de droits de douanes par l’administration Trump a entraîné une vive correction des cours du pétrole sur fond de crainte de ralentissement économique à la suite d’une véritable guerre commerciale. Nous adoptons un scenario plus prudent avec un baril désormais attendu respectivement à 67 $ sur2025, 65 $ 2026 et 67 $ sur le LT. Notre scénario de Capex 2025/30 a été abaissé de 5% et nos attentes de BPA de 13% en moyenne sur 2025/27 et nos OC de 10%. Nous privilégi...
FP TOTAL SE
EQNR EQUINOR ASA
GALP GALP ENERGIA SGPS SA CLASS B
SLB.N SCHLUMBERGER NV
GTT GAZTRANSPORT & TECHNIGAZ SA
SBMO SBM OFFSHORE NV
OMV OMV AG
ENI ENI S.P.A.
P2F PETROFAC LIMITED
REP REPSOL SA
TUB TUBACEX S.A.
SOC SUBSEA 7 S.A.
PKN POLSKI KONCERN NAFTOWY ORLEN S.A.
SBO SCHOELLER-BLECKMANN OILFIELD EQUIPMENT AG
TRE TECNICAS REUNIDAS SA
TEC TECHNIPFMC PLC
SNG SOCIETATEA NATIONALA DE GAZE NATURALE ROMGAZ SA
SNP PETROM S.A.
BP. BP P.L.C.
MOL MOL HUNGARIAN OIL & GAS PLC CLASS A
VK VALLOUREC SA
TE TECHNIP ENERGIES NV
FUR FUGRO NV
SHEL SHELL PLC
SPM SAIPEM S.P.A.
TEN TENARIS S.A.
VIRI VIRIDIEN
- Steffen Evjen
Stress testing
We have stress-tested our coverage universe at a USD60/bbl oil price, concluding that most names remain dependent on rising oil prices to warrant upside potential from current share prices. Moreover, unless oil prices move higher, we see increasing risk of cuts in shareholder distributions for Vår Energi and Equinor, while the risk appears lower for Aker BP. Overall, we remain cautious as macro risks remain tilted to the downside. We continue to prefer Aker BP as it screens best on valuation and...
- Steffen Evjen
Weekly news, topics & discussion
This week, Equinor, Aker BP, and Vår Energi released their Q1 trading updates. Equinor’s realised liquids prices were broadly in line with consensus across all segments. Aker BP reported a modest production beat, 2% above consensus, with realised liquids and gas prices largely as expected. Vår Energi’s Q1 production was 2% below our estimate and consensus, while realised liquids prices met expectations and gas prices exceeded them by 4–11%.
- Stephane Foucaud
AUCTUS ON FRIDAY - 11/04/2025
AUCTUS PUBLICATIONS Arrow Exploration (AXL LN/ CN)C; Target price of £0.70 per share: Stable production, 10% cash increase – Net production is currently exceeding 4.5 mboe/d, consistent with January levels. The CN HZ10 well, located in the northern area of the CN field, commenced production on 31 March, delivering 1,183 bbl/d of oil (591 bbl/d net to Arrow) with a 21% water cut from the Ubaque reservoir. The well is in the process of cleaning up, with the water cut gradually decreasing. The CN ...
OMV OMV AG
REP REPSOL SA
ENW ENWELL ENERGY
SEI. SINTANA ENERGY
VLE VALEURA ENERGY INC.
BP. BP P.L.C.
ZPHR ZEPHYR ENERGY
TAO TAG OIL LTD
AXL. ARROW EXPLORATION LTD
TAL PETROTAL (TAL)
KIST KISTOS PLC
SOUC SOUTHERN ENERGY CORP
PNOR PETRONOR E&P LTD
J4V VAR ENERGI ASA
HEVI HELIUM EVOLUTION
SHELL INC. (HEVI)
CORO ROYAL DUTCH SHELL
CORO ENERGY PLC
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