reports
- ABGSC Energy Research
- Daniel Vårdal Haugland
- John Olaisen
- Njål Kleiven
- Oliver Dunvold
- Stian Wibstad
- ABGSC Oil & Oil Services Research
- John Olaisen
- ABGSC Energy Research
- Åsne Holsen
- Daniel Vårdal Haugland
- John Olaisen
- Stian Wibstad
- ABGSC Oil & Oil Services Research
- John Olaisen
TGS awarded OBN 3D contract offshore Trinidad
TGS awarded OBN 3D contract offshore Trinidad OSLO, Norway (7 April 2025) – TGS, a leading provider of energy data and intelligence, is pleased to announce the award of a shallow water OBN acquisition contract in Trinidad. The 3D baseline contract is scheduled to commence in early Q3. The total duration of the survey is approximately 80 days. Kristian Johansen, CEO of TGS, commented, "Our OBN technology continues to be the preferred choice of the industry and exposes TGS to clients’ production budgets and asset optimization initiatives. We are pleased to secure this new 3D shallow water O...
- ABGSC Oil & Oil Services Research
- John Olaisen
- Martin Huseby Karlsen
E&P spending sensitivity explored
With an oil price at the mid-USD60s/bbl level, focus on the oil major overspending situation, and resulting impact on the outlook for offshore-focused oil services, is set to increase further. While oil companies would likely cut, or even eliminate, buyback programmes first, we expect increased focus on spending reductions and efficiencies, creating a more challenging business environment for oil services. Hence, we see a risk of oil companies taking a more cautious approach, resulting in projec...
SDRL SEADRILL LTD
ARCHERO ARCHER
TGS TGS-NOPEC GEOPHYSICAL COMPANY ASA
ODL ODFJELL DRILLING
AKSOO AKER SOLUTIONS ASA
DO DIAMOND OFFSHORE DRILLING INC.
RIGN TRANSOCEAN LTD.
BWO BW OFFSHORE LIMITED
BORR BORR DRILLING
SHLF SHELF DRILLING LTD.
VAL VALARIS LTD
NE NOBLE CORP NEW
OTL ODFJELL TECHNOLOGY LTD
SDNS SHELF DRILLING NORTH SEA
DDRIL DOLPHIN DRILLING
DOFG DOF GROUP ASA
VTURA VENTURA OFFSHORE
PLSV PARATUS ENERGY SERVICES LTD.
- Steffen Evjen
Weekly news, topics & discussion
This week, we published previews for most of our coverage universe. For Aker BP, we estimate solid Q1 production of 450kboed, with our EBITDA forecast 12% above consensus, ahead of the trading update on 7 April. For Vår Energi, we expect a slow start to the year, with Q1e production of 277kboed, leaving our EBITDA c7% below consensus, ahead of the trading update on 11 April. In other news, Johan Castberg reached first oil this week, with ramp-up expected through Q2 2025.
- ABGSC Energy Research
- Daniel Vårdal Haugland
- John Olaisen
- Njål Kleiven
- Oliver Dunvold
- Stian Wibstad
- ABGSC Oil & Oil Services Research
- John Olaisen
- Njål Kleiven
- Oliver Dunvold
- Stian Wibstad
EQNR EQUINOR ASA
AKAST AKASTOR ASA
KOG KONGSBERG GRUPPEN ASA
SOC SUBSEA 7 S.A.
PEN PANORO ENERGY ASA
ARCHERO ARCHER
AKER AKER ASA CLASS A
DNO DNO ASA CLASS A
TGS TGS-NOPEC GEOPHYSICAL COMPANY ASA
ODL ODFJELL DRILLING
AKSOO AKER SOLUTIONS ASA
BWO BW OFFSHORE LIMITED
PRS PROSAFE
OKEA OKEA
BWE BW ENERGY
VAR VAR ENERGI ASA
SEAPT-NO SEACREST PETROLEO
DOFG DOF GROUP ASA
- ABGSC Oil & Oil Services Research
- John Olaisen
- ABGSC Oil & Oil Services Research
- John Olaisen
- ABGSC Oil & Oil Services Research
- John Olaisen
- Oliver Dunvold
- Steffen Evjen
BlueNord (Hold, TP: NOK660.00) - A tough start to the year
Ahead of the Q1 results (due at c07:00 CET on 7 May), we forecast net production of 30kboed and EBITDA of USD124m (no reliable consensus). Due to continued operational issues at Tyra and reduced production in March and April, we have cut our 2025e EBITDA by 14%. Consequently, we now expect the first dividend payment (USD215m) in Q2. With the stock trading at a P/NAV of ~1.15x, we reiterate our HOLD, but have cut our target price to NOK660 (680) on our lowered 2025 estimates.
- Steffen Evjen
TGS Launches New Multi-Client Ultra Long Offset OBN Project in the Gul...
TGS Launches New Multi-Client Ultra Long Offset OBN Project in the Gulf of America OSLO, Norway (1 April 2025) – TGS, a leading global provider of energy data and intelligence, announces the commencement of a new Multi-Client Ultra Long Offset Ocean Bottom Node (OBN) data acquisition campaign in the Gulf of America. The Amendment 4 project will expand node coverage in TGS' Multi-Client library, adding over 1,100 square kilometers in the Mississippi Canyon, Ewing Banks, and Grand Isle South areas. Amendment 4 will feature TGS' , offering lower frequency and improved signal-to-noise for ultr...
- Steffen Evjen
Aker BP (Buy, TP: NOK280.00) - Hitting the ground running
Supported by strong Q1e production of 450kboed, our EBITDA forecast is 12% above consensus (the Q1 trading update is due at 07:00 CET on 7 April). Consequently, following a stronger-than-expected start to the year, we have raised our full-year production estimate. We forecast 2025 production of 424kboed, exceeding the guidance (390–420kboed) and consensus (412kboed). The key production drivers are broadly flat YOY for Johan Sverdrup production, Edvard Grieg stabilising, and positive YOY for Tyrv...
- Steffen Evjen
Weekly news, topics & discussion
This week, we published a note on the harsh reality of USD70/bbl for our coverage. While investors appear to be positioning for lower oil prices, we believe consensus FCF estimates for NCS large caps remain overly aggressive. Meanwhile, DNO announced a discovery at the Kjøttkake prospect, north-west of Troll, adding ~NOK0.8/share (~4%) to DNO’s NAV and ~NOK1/share to Aker BP’s (
- Steffen Evjen
The harsh reality of USD70/bbl
Investors are positioning for lower oil prices, and the perception seems to be that cash flows are set to remain healthy and valuations attractive. We are concerned that overly aggressive consensus FCF facilitates this, as our USD70/bbl calculations imply a normalised FCF yield of only 6–8% for our coverage. With the European majors trading at a 2025–2027e FCF yield of c12%, we struggle to find an attractive risk/reward in large-cap NCS stocks, as the implied returns are negative c10–25% at peer...
- Steffen Evjen
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