Valuation update

In this note, we show updated valuation statistics for the E&P sector.

US shale: limited growth expected

Our Q1 survey of the US shale universe showed limited revisions to guidance for 2024, and we still expect muted 2024 production growth of ~4% YOY (+8% YOY in 2023). The companies now expect fewer tailwinds from cost deflation, primarily due to operational efficiencies. Our survey also suggested capex down ~2% YOY, as companies guide for flat activity. For Q1, our universe spent 102% of its operating cash flow, split c50/50 capex and shareholder distributions.

Weekly news, topics & discussion

Key takeaways from this week are: 1) BlueNord’s Q1 figures were in line with our estimates, and due to technical issues, the Tyra plateau ramp-up was prolonged to mid-Q4 (2024 production guidance reduced from >40kboed to ~35kboed); 2) DNO’s Q1 report showed net production slightly above consensus, and it announced it has acquired stakes in five fields in the Norne area from Vår Energi, adding ~3kboed of net production near-term; and 3) Panoro Energy’s Q1 trading update showed net production of 9...

Valuation update

In this note, we show updated valuation statistics for the E&P sector.

Positive news at ESTRO

Weekly news, topics & discussion

This week, we published a note on Aker BP highlighting our growing concerns of sharp cuts to consensus FCF, with capex assumptions beyond 2026 looking far too low to us – we are ~40% below consensus on 2027–2030e FCF. As well as BW Energy’s Q1 trading update revealing net production just below our estimate, it announced a sale & leaseback agreement, which we see as marginally accretive to our NAV. In other news, we believe the Tyra ramp-up will be in focus in BlueNord’s Q1 results, due next week

Aker BP (Buy, TP: NOK290.00) - Capex concerns looming

While investor concerns appear tilted towards a near-term production decline, we are increasingly concerned that consensus FCF will face meaningful negative revisions, as capex assumptions beyond 2026 look far too low. For 2027–2030, our FCF estimates are ~40% below consensus. We reiterate our BUY, but have cut our target price to NOK290 (325) on a lower fair P/NAV.

Valuation update

In this note, we show updated valuation statistics for the E&P sector.

Tomra (Sell, TP: NOK95.00) - Headwinds for Recycling

Recycling reported disappointing Q1 adj. EBITA of NOK7m on lower revenues, which also hurt margins. Given the solid order intake – a bright spot in the report – we have only reduced our 2025–2026e EPS by 3–4%. We struggle to justify the 2024e P/E of 39x (similar to the ‘Magnificent 7’, with ~20% average annual growth rates) coupled with 2024e revenue growth of only ~3–4% and risk to 2025–2026e growth from potential delays in Poland and the UK’s DRS implementations. We reiterate our SELL and NOK9...

Weekly news, topics & discussion

This week, Equinor, Aker BP and Vår Energi released their Q1 results. In short: Equinor reported on the strong side, with a solid FCF beat fuelled by a working capital tailwind. Aker BP had a solid Q1 all around, while there was limited new news on Johan Sverdrup. For Vår Energi, with the results in line with our expectations, we believe investor focus remains on the Jotun FPSO sail-away.

Aker BP ASA - December 2023 (LTM): Peer Snapshot

Compares key performance metrics against industry peers.

AUCTUS ON FRIDAY - 26/04/2024

AUCTUS PUBLICATIONS ________________________________________ ADX Energy (ADX AU)C; target price of A$1.00 per share: Important step to unlock Sicily – The Italian ministry has informed ADX that it will be granted the d 363C.R-.AX gas exploration permit in the Sicily Channel. In addition, the Regional Administrative Court of Rome has annulled the Plan for the Sustainable Energy Transition of Eligible Areas that prevented the oil redevelopment, appraisal and exploration activities on the licence. ...

ODDO BHF SECURITIES MORNING NEWS – DETAILED COMMENTS 04/25/2024

Having flirted with the 495-point mark on Friday, which could have triggered an extension of the correction, the market has rebounded well since then. Our technical analysis highlights a configuration in which we are only at the start of a powerful rally. Target of 622 points for Stoxx 600 index (+11%) by the end of the year confirmed. Prefer banks to insurance companies in the short term. - ...

ODDO BHF SECURITIES MORNING NEWS – COMMENTAIRES DETAILLES 25/04/2024

Après avoir frôlé vendredi la barre des 495 points qui aurait pu déclencher la poursuite de la correction, le marché a ensuite bien rebondi. Notre analyse technique met en lumière une configuration où nous ne serions qu’au début d’un rallye puissant. Objectif 622 points (+11%) d’ici à la fin de l’année confirmé sur le Stoxx 600. Préférer les banques aux assurances à court terme. - ...

Aker BP : Q1 results beat expectations, pressure on cash and few catal...

>Operating profit 4% higher than expected - Aker BP released its Q1 2024 results showing revenues fully in line with expectations but EBITDA and EBIT 4% higher than expected at $ 2.8bn (-17.7% q-o-q) and € 2.2bn (+1.9% q-o-q), respectively. Net profit was 13% higher than expected at $ 531m, boosted by a tax rate of 75% vs 92% in Q4. CFFO was virtually flat at $ 1.45bn and FCF was down -26% to $ 339m.Good operating performance but upcoming maintenance st...

Aker BP : Résultats T1 supérieurs aux attentes, pression sur le cash e...

>Un résultat opérationnel 4% supérieur aux attentes - Aker BP a publié ses résultats du T1 2024 avec des revenus parfaitement en ligne mais un EBITDA et EBIT 4% supérieurs aux attentes à respectivement 2.8 Md$ (-17.7% QoQ) et 2.2 Md$ (+1.9% QoQ). Le résultat net ressort 13% supérieur aux attentes à 531 M$ bénéficiant d’un taux d’impôts à 75% vs 92% au T4. Le CFFO est quasi stable à 1.45 Md$ et le FCF est en baisse de 26% à 339 M$.Une bonne performance op...

Fear about JS decline is probably too high

Johan Sverdrup will soon decline, but unlikely to collapse, and new fields will secure growth from 2027e. We keep BUY and our TP of NOK 365.

ODDO BHF SECURITIES MORNING NEWS – COMMENTAIRES DETAILLES 24/04/2024

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Aker BP : Q1 2024 results slightly ahead of expectations but weaker FC...

>Q1 2024 results beat expectations by 4% at the operating level and by 13% at the NI with lower taxes - AkerBP just released its Q1 2024 results with 1/ revenues of $ 3,078m, down 13.4% q-o-q and 1% ahead of the consensus. 2/ EBITDA totalled $ 2,787m, down 12.2%, 1.3% below our expectations and 4% ahead of estimates. EBIT came in at $ 2,194m, in line with our expectations and 4% ahead of the consensus. Adjusted net income was robust at $ 531m, up 223% q-o-q and 13% ah...

Aker BP : Q1 2024 results slightly ahead of expectations but weaker FC...

>Q1 2024 results beat expectations by 4% at the operating level and by 13% at the NI with lower taxes - AkerBP just released its Q1 2024 results with 1/ revenues of $ 3,078m, down 13.4% q-o-q and 1% ahead of the consensus. 2/ EBITDA totalled $ 2,787m, down 12.2%, 1.3% below our expectations and 4% ahead of estimates. EBIT came in at $ 2,194m, in line with our expectations and 4% ahead of the consensus. Adjusted net income was robust at $ 531m, up 223% q-o-q and 13% ah...