reports
- Jin Yoon
Kuaishou 4Q23 Results: Margins to Further Improve in 2024
What’s new: Kuaishou’s reported 4Q23 revs were largely in-line with consensus and our expectations. User traffic could remain healthy as Kuaishou could reach 400mn DAU by 2H24. Margins could also continue to see upside partly driven by better rev mix and improved efficiency in marketing spending. We maintain our PT at HKD95. Analysts: Jin Yoon
- Jin Yoon
Kuaishou 4Q23 Preview: Further Upside in Margins
What’s New: We nudge down our 4Q total revenues partly due to slowdown in gaming (recognized in other revenues), but up our margin estimates amid continued optimization in revenue sharing fees, server + bandwidth, and S&M related costs. In this note, we discuss about the latest updates on the business including financial outlook and user trends in 4Q. Analysts: Jin Yoon
- Jin Yoon
Kuaishou 3Q23 Results: Upside in Margins
What's new: Kuaishou’s reported 3Q23 results were above consensus and our expectations driven by resiliency in ads. User traffic could remain healthy where DAU could grow by low-single digit YoY, while average daily time spent could remain above 120 mins in 4Q. Margins could see further upside partly driven by better efficiency in marketing spending and continued cost controls. We maintain our PT at HKD 95. Analysts: Jin Yoon
- Julia Pan Mengyao
- Ming San Soong
Kuaishou (1024 HK): 3Q23 results preview: Encouraging e-commerce and a...
Kuaishou’s guidance on 3Q23 revenue growth remains unchanged at high teens to twenties, in line with its previous guidance and market expectations. Despite weak seasonality in 3Q23, e-commerce GMV growth remained robust and is projected to surge by 35% yoy. 3Q23 earnings are expected to beat current consensus estimates, bolstered by a solid gross margin improvement and narrowing of overseas losses. Maintain BUY. Target price: HK$100.00.
- Jin Yoon
Kuaishou 3Q23 Preview: Upside in Margins
What’s New: We maintain our 3Q top-line but up our margin estimates amid continued optimization in revenue sharing fees and server + bandwidth related costs. In this note, we discuss about the latest updates on the business including financial outlook and user trends in 3Q. Analysts: Jin Yoon
- Julia Pan Mengyao
- Ming San Soong
Kuaishou (1024 HK): Key takeaways from Asian Gems Conference 2023.
Kuaishou is the world's second-largest short video platform and China's third-largest app with a highly-engaged user community, as well as 376m average DAUs and 117+ min average daily time spent per DAU in 2Q23. It continues to enhance content offerings, including the creation of summer entertainment IPs and original sports IPs. Optimisation of monetisation models resulted in resilient revenue growth across the online marketing and e-commerce segments. Maintain BUY. Target price: HK$100.00.
- Greater China Research Team
Greater China Strategy Alpha Picks: October conviction calls.
MSCI China and HSI fell 1.2% and 1.4% respectively in September as investors’ sentiment was dampened by the weaker macro data and renewed property sector woes. Moreover, higher US bond yields and US dollar strength added to the downside pressure. For October, we expect further downside pressure, so we add SELLs on Henlius and Xpeng to the list, on top of BUYs on Anta, Lenovo, PICC P&C and SHKP.
K3SD BAIDU INC SPONSORED ADR CLASS A
00016 SUN HUNG KAI PROPERTIES LIMITED
00992 LENOVO GROUP LIMITED
01109 CHINA RESOURCES LAND LIMITED
02328 PICC PROPERTY & CASUALTY CO. LTD. CLASS H
600519 KWEICHOW MOUTAI CO. LTD. CLASS A
1211 BYD COMPANY LIMITED CLASS H
TCOM TRIP.COM GROUP LTD. SPONSORED ADR
1496219D BEIJING KUAISHOU TECHNOLOGY
709 GIORDANO INTERNATIONAL LTD
TCOM US TRIP.COM TCOM US
300750 CONTEMPORARY AMPEREX TECHNOLOGY CO. LTD. CLASS A
2696 SHANGHAI HENLIUS BIOTECH INC
1024 KUAISHOU TECHNOLOGY
XPEV XPENG INC. ADR SPONSORED CLASS A
9868 XPENG INC
9888 BAIDU INC
9961 TRIP.COM GROUP LTD
- Julia Pan Mengyao
- Ming San Soong
Kuaishou Technology (1024 HK): Key takeaways from Kuaishou Investor Da...
On 21 September, Kuaishou organised Kuaishou Investor Day and shared management’s strategies and outlook in each business line, including livestreaming, e-commerce, commercialisation, local consumer services and international expansion. We believe continuous exploration of new business and applications of AGI should be the company’s new growth catalysts. Maintain BUY. Target price: HK$100.00.
- Bella Lu Yifei
- Julia Pan Mengyao
- Ken Lee
- Ming San Soong
- Terence Chiu
Greater China Daily: Friday, September 22, 2023
KEY HIGHLIGHTS Sector Automobile Weekly: Lithium prices fell below breakeven point, despite buoyant EV sales. Maintain UNDERWEIGHT. Top BUYs: BYD, CATL and Li Auto. Update Kuaishou Technology (1024 HK/BUY/HK$60.40/Target: HK$100.00) Key takeaways from Kuaishou Investor Day 2023. TRADERS’ CORNER First Tractor Company Limited (38 HK): Trading Buy range: HK$3.80-3.90 BYD Electronic (International) (285 HK): Trading Buy range: HK$34.00-35.20
- Julia Pan Mengyao
- Ming San Soong
China Internet: Strong growth in online ads and OTA likely to continue...
China’s internet sector delivered solid 2Q23 results with an earnings beat but this was followed by lukewarm 3Q23 guidance from most companies navigating macro uncertainty. In view of the intense competition and saturated growth, internet companies are ramping up AIGC investment and cross border expansion against a favourable regulatory backdrop. Maintain MARKET WEIGHT on the internet sector due to heavy investment in new initiatives leading to margin erosion.
JD JD.COM INC. SPONSORED ADR CLASS A
K3SD BAIDU INC SPONSORED ADR CLASS A
A117ME ALIBABA GROUP HOLDING LTD. SPONSORED ADR
00700 TENCENT HOLDINGS LTD.
1496219D BEIJING KUAISHOU TECHNOLOGY
3690 MEITUAN DIANPING 3690 HK
700 HK TENCENT 700 HK
TCOM US TRIP.COM TCOM US
9988 ALIBABA (9988 HK)
BEKE KE HOLDINGS INC
9618 JD.COM INC
1024 KUAISHOU TECHNOLOGY
9888 BAIDU INC
PDD PINDUODUO PDD US
9999 HK NETEASE INC
780 TONGCHENG TRAVEL HOLDINGS LTD
9961 TRIP.COM GROUP LTD
- Greater China Research Team
China Strategy Alpha Picks: September conviction calls.
Both the MSCI China and HSI fell about 8.5% in August as the lack of significant stimulus announcements dampened market sentiment. The August earnings season also saw relatively conservative management guidance and emphasis on cost efficiencies and asset light strategies. Against this backdrop, we focus on stocks with pricing power or sustainable margins; we add Giordano, KE Holdings and Trip.com to our BUY list.
01109 CHINA RESOURCES LAND LIMITED
600519 KWEICHOW MOUTAI CO. LTD. CLASS A
300124 SHENZHEN INOVANCE TECHNOLOGY CO. LTD CLASS A
599A SANDS CHINA LTD.
02669 CHINA OVERSEAS PROPERTY HOLDINGS LIMITED
2318 PING AN INSURANCE (GROUP) COMPANY OF CHINA LTD. CLASS H
1211 BYD COMPANY LIMITED CLASS H
1928-HK SANDS CHINA
1496219D BEIJING KUAISHOU TECHNOLOGY
709 GIORDANO INTERNATIONAL LTD
TCOM US TRIP.COM TCOM US
300750 CONTEMPORARY AMPEREX TECHNOLOGY CO. LTD. CLASS A
BEKE KE HOLDINGS INC
1024 KUAISHOU TECHNOLOGY
9888 BAIDU INC
9961 TRIP.COM GROUP LTD
002912 SHENZHEN SINOVATIO TECHNOLOGY CO
- Jin Yoon
Kuaishou 2Q23 Results: Further Upside in Margins
What's new: Kuaishou’s reported 2Q23 results were above consensus and our expectations driven by ads and e-commerce. Both segments could remain resilient heading into 3Q, while live streaming could be adversely impacted by the risk control measures. User traffic could remain healthy in the summer months where both DAU and average daily user time spent could sequentially improve in 3Q. We maintain our PT at HKD 95. Analysts: Jin Yoon
- Julia Pan Mengyao
- Ming San Soong
Kuaishou (1024 HK): 2Q23: Robust earnings beat; encouraging 2H23 growt...
Kuaishou’s 2Q23 earnings beat expectations. Revenue increased 28% yoy to Rmb27.7b, 2% ahead of the street’s estimates. Gross margin improved 5ppt yoy to 50%. Non-IFRS profit for the period was Rmb2.7b, compared with Rmb42m in 1Q23, beating the street’s estimates. Management also guided for a strong 3Q23/2023 with yoy revenue growth in the high teens to twenties. The company remains confident of achieving Rmb2t ecommerce GMV by 2025. Maintain BUY. Target price: HK$100.00.
- Ariel Poh Yun Li
- Bella Lu Yifei
- Jo Yee Ng
- Johnny Yum Chung Man
- Julia Pan Mengyao
- Ming San Soong
- Stella Guo Yuting
- Terence Chiu
- Ziv Ang Sze Champ
Greater China Daily: Wednesday, August 23, 2023
KEY HIGHLIGHTS Results Anta (2020 HK/BUY/HK$77.65/Target: HK$128.00) 1H23: Results beat; expect margin expansion to continue. Baidu Inc (9888 HK/BUY/HK$123.00/Target: HK$192.00) 2Q23: Strong earnings beat anchored by solid ad and cloud recovery. Geely Auto (175 HK/SELL/HK$9.30/Target: HK$6.50) 1H23: Results miss on margins again. Maintain SELL and cut target price from HK$9.00 to HK$6.50. Goldwind Science & Technology (2208 HK/HOLD/HK$4.19/Target: HK$5.10) 1H23: Below expectations; WTG marg...
K3SD BAIDU INC SPONSORED ADR CLASS A
GRU GEELY AUTOMOBILE HOLDINGS LIMITED
300124 SHENZHEN INOVANCE TECHNOLOGY CO. LTD CLASS A
0763 ZTE CORPORATION CLASS H
2202 XINJIANG GOLDWIND SCIENCE&TECHNOLOGY
1496219D BEIJING KUAISHOU TECHNOLOGY
1024 KUAISHOU TECHNOLOGY
MNSO MINISO GROUP HOLDING ADS (N SHARES)
9888 BAIDU INC
9896 MINISO GROUP HOLDING LTD
- Greater China Research Team
China Strategy Alpha Picks: August Conviction Calls
The HSI rebounded more than 6% in July with the rollout of new policies to promote consumption and investment. The government recognises the need to restore economic confidence and that the demand and supply situation in the real estate market has changed. We expect further supportive policies to be rolled out and are adding potential beneficiaries such as Baidu
01109 CHINA RESOURCES LAND LIMITED
300015 AIER EYE HOSPITAL GROUP CO. LTD. CLASS A
600519 KWEICHOW MOUTAI CO. LTD. CLASS A
300124 SHENZHEN INOVANCE TECHNOLOGY CO. LTD CLASS A
599A SANDS CHINA LTD.
00700 TENCENT HOLDINGS LTD.
2318 PING AN INSURANCE (GROUP) COMPANY OF CHINA LTD. CLASS H
1211 BYD COMPANY LIMITED CLASS H
1928-HK SANDS CHINA
1496219D BEIJING KUAISHOU TECHNOLOGY
700 HK TENCENT 700 HK
1199 COSCO SHIPPING PORTS LIMITED
300750 CONTEMPORARY AMPEREX TECHNOLOGY CO. LTD. CLASS A
LI LI AUTO INC. SPONSORED ADR CLASS A
1024 KUAISHOU TECHNOLOGY
291 CHINA RESOURCES BEER HOLDINGS CO LTD
9888 BAIDU INC
2015 LI AUTO INC
- Julia Pan Mengyao
- Ming San Soong
Kuaishou Technology (1024 HK): 1H23 positive profit alert; 2Q23 net ma...
Kuaishou released its 1H23 profit alert. It is expected to record a net profit of no less than Rmb560m, which represents a turnaround from the group’s net loss of approximately Rmb9.43b recorded in 1H22. Therefore, we estimate IFRS net profit at no less than Rmb1.2b and non-IFRS net profit at Rmb2.4b, representing net margin of 9% in 2Q23, well above our and consensus estimates. Maintain BUY with a higher target price of HK$100.00.
- Julia Pan Mengyao
- Ming San Soong
Kuaishou (1024 HK): 2Q23 preview: Strong live streaming e-commerce and...
We believe the rapid growth momentum in e-commerce GMV and online marketing is the core driving force for 2Q23 top-line growth. External ads underwent a positive turnaround, particularly in online game ads, in the light of the strong 2Q/3Q23 seasonality and encouraging trend of new game approval. We expect continuous improvement in margin performance driven by strong revenue growth and operating leverage. We maintain BUY with a higher target price of HK$93.00.
- Carol Dou Xiao Qin
- Julia Pan Mengyao
- Ming San Soong
- Sunny Chen
- Terence Chiu
Greater China Daily: Monday, July 24, 2023
KEY HIGHLIGHTS Update Aier Eye Hospital Group (300015 CH/BUY/Rmb19.87/Target: Rmb26.00) Expects resilient revenue and earnings growth in 1H23. Kuaishou (1024 HK/BUY/HK$57.00/Target: HK$93.00) 2Q23 preview: Strong live streaming e-commerce and ad momentum continue. HSI AND HS TECH INDEX OUTLOOK
- Jin Yoon
Kuaishou 2Q23 Preview: Upside in Ads and E-commerce
What’s New: We up our 2Q estimates as ads and e-commerce revenues could come in better than what we initially anticipated. In this note, we discuss about the latest updates on the business including financial outlook and user trends in 2Q. Analysts: Jin Yoon
- Greater China Research Team
China Strategy Alpha Picks: July Conviction Calls
Chinese equities rebounded more than 3% in June on hopes of a new round of stimulus. We do expect further support from the government, given the weak economic confidence. China risks sliding into a vicious cycle if households and the private sector continue to deleverage. We add CG Services and Li Auto to our BUY list.
00688 CHINA OVERSEAS LAND & INVESTMENT LIMITED
300015 AIER EYE HOSPITAL GROUP CO. LTD. CLASS A
600519 KWEICHOW MOUTAI CO. LTD. CLASS A
300124 SHENZHEN INOVANCE TECHNOLOGY CO. LTD CLASS A
00700 TENCENT HOLDINGS LTD.
1211 BYD COMPANY LIMITED CLASS H
6098 COUNTRY GARDEN SERVICES
1496219D BEIJING KUAISHOU TECHNOLOGY
700 HK TENCENT 700 HK
1199 COSCO SHIPPING PORTS LIMITED
300750 CONTEMPORARY AMPEREX TECHNOLOGY CO. LTD. CLASS A
BEKE KE HOLDINGS INC
LI LI AUTO INC. SPONSORED ADR CLASS A
1024 KUAISHOU TECHNOLOGY
2015 LI AUTO INC
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