What’s new: Kuaishou’s reported 1Q24 results that top consensus and our expectations. OMS could remain resilient partly driven by closed-loop ads and continued recovery in external ads. Margins could further improve YoY in FY24 amid a better revenue mix and continued cost controls. We maintain our PT at HKD95. Analysts: Jin Yoon
What’s new: Kuaishou’s reported 4Q23 revs were largely in-line with consensus and our expectations. User traffic could remain healthy as Kuaishou could reach 400mn DAU by 2H24. Margins could also continue to see upside partly driven by better rev mix and improved efficiency in marketing spending. We maintain our PT at HKD95. Analysts: Jin Yoon
GREATER CHINA Strategy Alpha Picks: February Conviction Calls: We remain hedged, adding COSCO Shipping Holdings and Foxconn Industrial Internet to our BUY list, but include additional SELL calls on Li Auto and Xpeng. INDONESIA Strategy Alpha Picks: Outperformance in Jan 24: Our picks are EXCL, MAPI, BMRI, JSMR, BBNI, CTRA, MYOR and AKRA. MALAYSIA Strategy Alpha Picks: Eyes Also On Results Season Winners: Our Alpha Picks performance again trounced the KLCI in Jan 24 (+9.6% vs +4.0%). Feb 24 pic...
What’s New: We nudge down our 4Q total revenues partly due to slowdown in gaming (recognized in other revenues), but up our margin estimates amid continued optimization in revenue sharing fees, server + bandwidth, and S&M related costs. In this note, we discuss about the latest updates on the business including financial outlook and user trends in 4Q. Analysts: Jin Yoon
GREATER CHINA Strategy Alpha Picks: January Conviction Calls: We add the potential beneficiaries of the upcoming CNY festival − Galaxy Entertainment and Trip.com − to our BUY list, but include SELL calls on BYD and Geely due to the subsidy reduction. INDONESIA Strategy Alpha Picks: Underperformance in 4Q23 and 2023: Our picks are MAPI, BMRI, JSMR, TLKM, BBNI, CTRA, MYOR and AKRA. MALAYSIA Strategy Alpha Picks: Domestic Event Winners: Our Alpha Picks outperformed the KLCI in Dec 23. Jan 24 pick...
GREATER CHINA Strategy Alpha Picks: December Conviction Calls: We add a mix of turnaround stocks and beneficiaries of policy support to our BUY list − CSPC, HKEX, Lenovo, Longfor, Pinduoduo and Sunny Optical. INDONESIA Strategy Alpha Picks: Underperformance With A 3.7% Return: Our picks are GOTO, BMRI, JSMR, TLKM, BBNI, NCKL, CTRA, MYOR and AKRA. MALAYSIA Strategy Alpha Picks: Still Focusing On Domestic Winners: Our Alpha Picks trounced the FBMKLCI in Nov 23, mostly thanks to Hume’s run-up. De...
MSCI China rose only 2.3% mom in November while the HSI shed 0.4% mom over the same period, despite positive newsflow for the real estate sector. Investors preferred to sell into strength, as concerns over China’s slow economic growth remain. Looking ahead, the mid-Dec 23 Economic Work Conference may provide positive surprises and with MSCI China trading at 12-month forward PE of 9.3x, risk is skewed to the upside. We add CSPC, HKEX, Lenovo, Longfor, Pinduoduo and Sunny Optical to our BUY list.
What's new: Kuaishou’s reported 3Q23 results were above consensus and our expectations driven by resiliency in ads. User traffic could remain healthy where DAU could grow by low-single digit YoY, while average daily time spent could remain above 120 mins in 4Q. Margins could see further upside partly driven by better efficiency in marketing spending and continued cost controls. We maintain our PT at HKD 95. Analysts: Jin Yoon
Kuaishou’s 3Q23 results saw a solid earnings beat. Revenue increased 21% yoy to Rmb27.9b, in line with the street’s estimates. Gross profit margin improved 5ppt yoy to 52%. Non-IFRS profit for the period was Rmb3.2b, compared with Rmb2.7b in 2Q23, beating the street’s estimates. Management also guided for a solid 4Q23 with mid-teens yoy revenue growth. The company remains confident about achieving Rmb2t in ecommerce GMV by 2025. Maintain BUY. Target price: HK$97.00.
KEY HIGHLIGHTS Sector Industrial Automation Demand stabilises with marginal recovery in 4Q23, demand driver to shift in 2024. Downgrade to MARKET WEIGHT. Results Baidu Inc (9888 HK/BUY/HK$107.40/Target: HK$166.00) 3Q23: Earnings beat; expecting monetisation of ERNIE 4.0. Kuaishou Technology (1024 HK/BUY/HK$58.50/Target: HK$97.00) 3Q23: Solid earnings beat; key beneficiary of adtech tailwinds. Miniso (MNSO US/NOT RATED/US$27.66) 1QFY24: Earnings beat; strong growth from overseas and...
GREATER CHINA Sector Industrial Automation: Demand stabilises with marginal recovery in 4Q23, demand driver to shift in 2024. Downgrade to MARKET WEIGHT. Results Baidu Inc (9888 HK/BUY/HK$107.40/Target: HK$166.00): 3Q23: Earnings beat; expecting monetisation of ERNIE 4.0. Kuaishou Technology (1024 HK/BUY/HK$58.50/Target: HK$97.00): 3Q23: Solid earnings beat; key beneficiary of adtech tailwinds. Miniso (MNSO US/NOT RATED/US$27.66): 1QFY24: Earnings beat; strong growth from overseas and good momen...
2023’s 11.11 ended with alleviated GMV growth against a soft macro backdrop and intense competitive landscape. Live-streaming e-commerce and adtech upgrades remain key growth catalysts in the e-commerce sector. We opine that the reduced vitality of 11.11 this year stems from rational consumption behaviours and increased consumption of quality products. Maintain MARKET WEIGHT due to lukewarm macro outlook and brutal price wars undermining the profitability of e-commerce companies.
We expect e-commerce ads and overseas e-commerce expansion to be the main driving forces spurring stagnant growth in 3Q23 and beyond. In addition, we are optimistic about the better-the-expected growth in game gross profit and on-track OTA data on the back of strong seasonality. We are also looking out for meaningful progress in AIGC development in 3Q23 and better visibility in 4Q23. Maintain MARKET WEIGHT on the internet sector.
GREATER CHINA Strategy Alpha Picks: November Conviction Calls: We add a mix of defensives and turnaround stocks − COSCO Shipping, CR Mixc, Great Wall Motor, Innovent, Link REIT and NetEase − to our BUY list. INDONESIA Strategy Alpha Picks: Outperformance Despite Negative Returns: Our picks: TLKM, BBNI, SMGR, NCKL, CTRA, MYOR, AKRA and CMRY. MALAYSIA Strategy Alpha Picks: Focusing On Domestic Winners: Our Alpha Picks underperformed the FBMKLCI in Oct 23. Nov 23 picks: BUY BURSA, EKOVEST, GENM, ...
Kuaishou’s guidance on 3Q23 revenue growth remains unchanged at high teens to twenties, in line with its previous guidance and market expectations. Despite weak seasonality in 3Q23, e-commerce GMV growth remained robust and is projected to surge by 35% yoy. 3Q23 earnings are expected to beat current consensus estimates, bolstered by a solid gross margin improvement and narrowing of overseas losses. Maintain BUY. Target price: HK$100.00.
KEY HIGHLIGHTS Sector Internet Solid domestic game grossing growth in summer; expect positive surprise from NetEase. Results Contemporary Amperex Technology (300750 CH/BUY/Rmb182.70/Target: Rmb410.00) 3Q23: Earnings up 11% yoy and down 4% qoq; below estimates. Maintain BUY. Update Kuaishou (1024 HK/BUY/HK$56.05/Target: HK$100.00) 3Q23 results preview: Encouraging e-commerce and ad momentum despite weak seasonality. TRADERS’ CORNER Sunny Optical Technology (Group) (2382 HK): Trading Buy range...
GREATER CHINA Sector Internet: Solid domestic game grossing growth in summer; expect positive surprise from NetEase. Results Contemporary Amperex Technology (300750 CH/BUY/Rmb182.70/Target: Rmb410.00): 3Q23: Results came as a mixed bag. Maintain BUY. Update Kuaishou (1024 HK/BUY/HK$56.05/Target: HK$100.00): 3Q23 results preview: Encouraging e-commerce and ad momentum despite weak seasonality. INDONESIA Results Bank Tabungan Pensiunan Nasional Syariah (BTPS IJ/HOLD/Rp1,700/Target: Rp1,810): 3Q23...
What’s New: We maintain our 3Q top-line but up our margin estimates amid continued optimization in revenue sharing fees and server + bandwidth related costs. In this note, we discuss about the latest updates on the business including financial outlook and user trends in 3Q. Analysts: Jin Yoon
Kuaishou is the world's second-largest short video platform and China's third-largest app with a highly-engaged user community, as well as 376m average DAUs and 117+ min average daily time spent per DAU in 2Q23. It continues to enhance content offerings, including the creation of summer entertainment IPs and original sports IPs. Optimisation of monetisation models resulted in resilient revenue growth across the online marketing and e-commerce segments. Maintain BUY. Target price: HK$100.00.
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