China online retail companies’ 4Q25 revenue and margins were pressured by the high-base effect and the persistently intense on-demand delivery competition, which are likely to ease in 2026, seeing the solid NBS retail data for Jan-Feb 26, and the latest policy. Meanwhile, online gaming and OTA reported resilient 4Q25 top-line growth and continuous margin improvement, empowered by improved AI efficiency and benign competition. We expect improving AI monetisation and mixed earnings as AI investmen...
Chinese equities consolidated further in March amid outbreak of hostilities in the Middle East, with the HSI and MSCI China Index declining 6.9% mom and 7.5% mom respectively. We expect markets to stay volatile in April, though oversold rebounds are possible. We continue to focus on names with stronger fundamentals and remain buyers of tech names, adding Li Ning and Zijin Mining to our BUY list while taking profits on Ganfeng Lithium and cutting losses on LINK REIT.
Kuaishou’s 4Q25 results are in line with expectations. Revenue increased 12% yoy to Rmb39.6b, slightly better than our and consensus estimates. Gross profit margin expanded 1ppt yoy to 55%. Non-IFRS net profit grew 16% yoy to Rmb5.5b, largely in line with our and consensus forecasts. Management guided a 1Q26 revenue growth of 2.5% while earnings are estimated to drop over 40% yoy to Rmb3b, missing our and consensus estimates. Maintain BUY with a slightly lower target price of HK$82.00.
What’s new: Kuaishou’s reported 4Q25 results that top consensus and our expectations. Total rev growth could decelerate in 1Q26 partly driven by slowdown in key segments including OMS and e-commerce. While Kling AI monetization continues to ramp up, investments in training and inferences could further weigh down margins for FY26. We lower our PT from HK$85 to HK$65 on lowered outlook. Our updated PT of HK$65 implies 15.8x FY26E P/E. We maintain our BUY rating. Analysts: Jin Yoon
Top Stories Company Results | Anhui Conch Cement (914 HK/BUY/HK$21.74/Target: HK$26.10) Conch reported 2025 net profit of Rmb8,464.5m (+5.1% yoy), below expectations due to weaker cement prices, with revenue down 9.3% yoy. Cement sales volumes remained resilient at 265m tonnes (-1.1% yoy), outperforming industry declines of 6.9% yoy. Cement unit production cost fell 11.1% yoy to Rmb166.42/tonne, vs a 6.4% yoy drop in blended cement ASP, lifting group gross margin to 23.0% (+2.3ppt yoy). Oversea...
Greater China Company Results | Anhui Conch Cement (914 HK/BUY/HK$21.74/Target: HK$26.10) Conch reported 2025 net profit of Rmb8,464.5m (+5.1% yoy), below expectations due to weaker cement prices, with revenue down 9.3% yoy. Cement sales volumes remained resilient at 265m tonnes (-1.1% yoy), outperforming industry declines of 6.9% yoy. Cement unit production cost fell 11.1% yoy to Rmb166.42/tonne, vs a 6.4% yoy drop in blended cement ASP, lifting group gross margin to 23.0% (+2.3ppt yoy). Overse...
Greater China Economics | China Investors expect the NPC to set a 2026 real GDP growth target of 4.5-5.0% yoy, with policy support led primarily by fiscal measures while monetary easing remains complementary. The official deficit is likely capped at 4%, though augmented fiscal expansion via special bond issuance will provide additional support. The 15th Five-Year Plan is expected to prioritise hard-tech self-reliance, advanced manufacturing and curbing industrial involution, with only target...
To-C applications growth is accelerating among mega-cap players with super apps, while emerging unicorns focus on To- B and To-prosumers in specific AI scenarios/verticals and on physical AI in verticals such as mobility and smartphone. For the next 6-12 months, we are eyeing key AI narratives: a) rollout of super apps leveraging on agentic AI, b) leading LLMs in specific verticals unlocking monetisation potential, and c) key drivers of cloud revenue growth. Maintain OVERWEIGHT. Top BUYs: Baidu,...
Highlights To-C applications growth is accelerating among mega-cap players with super apps, while emerging unicorns focus on To-B and To-prosumers in specific AI scenarios/verticals and on physical AI in verticals such as mobility and smartphone. For the next 6-12 months, we are eyeing key AI narratives: a) roll-out of super apps leveraging on agentic AI, b) leading LLMs in specific verticals unlocking monetisation potential, and c) key drivers of cloud revenue growth. Over time, we expect fur...
Greater China Economics | PMI January PMI was below Bloomberg’s consensus, as the manufacturing PMI dipped to 49.2 (-0.9pt mom). The manufacturing output sub-index stayed marginally expansionary, while the new orders and new export orders sub-indices weakened. The purchase prices sub-index surged, pointing to higher cost pressure for manufacturers. The non-manufacturing PMI also fell to 49.4 (-0.8pt mom), mainly driven by a sharp contraction in the construction industry index. Large enterpri...
We reckon that the AI wave is driven by key themes including: a) recurring AI LLM/applications and cloud revenue growth, and b) a wider deployment of proprietary and data driven AI agents by vertical players to strengthen competitive moats. Amid an uncertain competitive backdrop, we opine that cloud hyper-scalers are key beneficiaries underpinned by their ecosystem scale and technological capabilities, underscoring growing investor confidence in the AI-driven sector’s re-rating. Maintain OVERWEI...
Greater China Economics | Inflation December CPI inflation rose to 0.8% yoy (+0.1ppt mom), the strongest reading ytd, with a sharp rebound in food prices. Core CPI remained at 1.2% yoy, the highest level for 2025, with goods inflation strengthening further while services inflation continued to ease slightly. PPI deflation moderated to 1.9% yoy (+0.3ppt mom), supported by improvements in mining and consumer goods pricing. Overall, the data suggests tentative price stabilisation, although defl...
We had a follow-up call with Kuaishou after it launched its first unified multimodal video model and provided several updates on complementary models, spanning audio generation, virtual avatars, and intelligent creation tools. We anticipate a higherthan- expected revenue contribution from Kling AI in 2026, as it continues to focus on user volume growth over profitability. We believe the company’s strong monetisation progress will create a moat against the competitive environment. Maintain BUY wi...
Top Stories Economics | Trade Exports growth rebounded to 5.9% yoy in November, beating consensus estimates, driven by a recovery in EU and Japan shipments, although exports to the US weakened further. Imports rose 1.9% yoy, below consensus expectations, amid mixed commodity performances. The trade surplus widened to US$111.7b. Exports of motor vehicle, hi-tech and mechanical & electrical goods improved, while integrated circuit imports strengthened. Overall, trade data showed resilience via di...
Greater China Economics | Trade Exports growth rebounded to 5.9% yoy in November, beating consensus estimates, driven by a recovery in EU and Japan shipments, although exports to the US weakened further. Imports rose 1.9% yoy, below consensus expectations, amid mixed commodity performances. The trade surplus widened to US$111.7b. Exports of motor vehicle, hi-tech and mechanical & electrical goods improved, while integrated circuit imports strengthened. Overall, trade data showed resilience via d...
China’s internet companies reported resilient 3Q25 top-line growth and continuous margin improvement in the online gaming and OTA sectors, empowered by improved AI efficiency and benign competition. Margin pressure in e-commerce due to the intense on-demand delivery competition is likely to ease in 4Q25, but could persist into 2026 given the continuous investment and tough comparison base boosted by the trade-in programme in 2025. Maintain MARKET WEIGHT. Top BUYs: Alibaba, Tencent, TCOM, TME, Ne...
Greater China Sector Update | Consumer We met investors in Thailand and Malaysia during our marketing trip from 24-28 Nov 25. Overall investor interest in the China consumer sector is improving. The most frequently discussed segments and names include Miniso, Shenzhou, Anta, consumer staples (including dairy, beer and baijiu), as well as some new consumption names such as Pop Mart (non-rated) and Laopu Gold (non-rated). Our preferred stocks include: Galaxy, Midea, Miniso, Shenzhou and Sands ...
What’s new: Kuaishou’s reported 3Q25 results that top consensus and our expectations. OMS could remain resilient partly driven by growth in the domestic market. AI monetization could remain stable (to potential upside) partly driven by higher subscriber base for Kling AI. Kuaishou remains committed in investments around Kling AI. We maintain our PT at HKD85. Analysts: Jin Yoon
3Q25 results are in line with expectations. Revenue increased 14% yoy to Rmb35.6b, within consensus estimate. Gross profit margin remained flattish yoy at 55%. Non-IFRS net profit grew 26% yoy to Rmb5b, 3% above consensus forecast. Management guided a 4Q25 revenue growth of 10% while earnings are estimated to jump 15% yoy to Rmb5.4b, both in line with consensus estimates. Maintain BUY with a slightly lower target price of HK$88.00.
Top Stories Company Results | Kingsoft Corp (3888 HK/BUY/HK$30.72/Target: HK$44.00) Kingsoft’s 3Q25 results missed expectations. Revenue dropped 17% yoy to Rmb2.4b, 6% below consensus estimate. Gross margin shrank 4ppt yoy to 80.4%, in line with consensus expectation. Operating profit plunged 76% yoy to Rmb277m, while operating margin fell 28ppt yoy to 11%, dampened by subdued revenue growth. Net profit declined 49% yoy to Rmb213m, with net margin shrinking 5ppt yoy to 8.8%. Maintain BUY with a...
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